Cubs Pursuing Tarik Skubal Trade Doesn’t Make Much Sense

Unless the world ends or BBWAA members all lose their minds, Tarik Skubal will win his second straight Cy Young award once the postseason is over. This inevitable feat makes rumors of a possible trade even crazier, although recent reports regarding the state of his contract negotiations with the Tigers make it feel more plausible. Jon Heyman tweeted that they were about $250 million apart a year ago, and there have been no indications that progress has been made.

That gap alone would rank No. 20 all-time among the largest MLB contracts, so it’s clear Skubal will be seeking something much larger. Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported that the Tigers offered Skubal a four-year extension worth less than $100 million after the 2024 season. Offering him a deal that didn’t even reach $25 million AAV when he won the Cy Young with a 2.39 ERA and 6.0 fWAR is crazy.

Skubal is represented by Scott Boras, which means there is virtually no chance that a deal will be reached unless the Tigers severely overpay. If president of baseball operations Scott Harris and Tigers ownership have no intention of doing that, then trading him while they still can would make sense. The Cubs will be on the hunt for starting pitching this winter, with an ace-caliber arm near the top of their wishlist.

Skubal would undoubtedly check that box, and slotting the southpaw at the top of Craig Counsell‘s rotation would make Cubs fans giddy. However, the likelihood of having him for only one year could make a deal hard to swallow. The Cubs just went through that experiment with Kyle Tucker, and the cost to acquire Skubal as a rental would likely be far higher.

Despite what Jesse Rogers has said recently, the original thought was that the Cubs could extend Tucker either during the seaosn or once he hit free agency. For any number of reasons, that no longer appears to be the case. We have yet see any evidence to believe Tom Ricketts would pay what it would take to extend Skubal sign him as a free agent, so the risk to trade for him becomes much greater.

As much as it would help to land one of the two best pitchers on the planet, doing so at the necessary cost in prospects and big leaguers doesn’t seem to make sense for this organization.

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