Let’s talk about the SEC Hot Seat. Coaching in the SEC is intense, high-stakes, and relentless. It’s a pressure cooker where success is measured in championships, recruiting dominance, and maintaining a win-or-else mentality. These are not just our perspectives but the facts. Kirby Smart said as much earlier this week at a Spring ball press conference when he was asked about coaching and turnover in the SEC.
“This league will chew you up and spit you out. This league is brutal when you look across.” Smart said. “I’m sitting in an SEC head coach meeting, and there’s [Mark] Stoops and I, the most tenured guys, and there’s a lot of guys that are in their first three or four years. Then you look at their staffs, and there’s tremendous amounts of turnover.”
In short, stability is a commodity in the SEC, and the pressure never fades. The 2024 season may have been an anomaly with no head coaching changes, but history tells us that won’t last. That perspective will shape our 2025 SEC hot seat tailgate talk.
SEC Tailgate Talk: 2025 SEC Hot Seat
Hugh Freeze: Auburn Tigers
Hugh Freeze was the answer to the problem that became Bryan Harsin at Auburn. He also leads our SEC host seat list for 2024. Freeze came in at the end of the 2022 season to bring stability and winning back to The Plains. Harsin was a disaster and was a meager 9-12 (4-9 in SEC play) in less than two seasons. Freeze brought a history of winning big at Arkansas State, Ole Miss, and then at Liberty. He is the guy who gave Nick Saban fits and beat him in back-to-back seasons. The results on the field have not measured up. Freeze is 11-14 in two years at Auburn, including a 5-11 record in the SEC. That includes no wins against Georgia or Alabama, two of Auburn’s biggest rivals.
Freeze is supposed to be an offensive and quarterback guru. Two years with Payton Thorne makes us question if Freeze has lost his fastball. Thorne is gone, and in comes Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold. The former five-star failed to light the world on fire as the Sooner QB. He now heads to The Plains to try to resurrect Freeze’s offense. Another disappointing season. Seeing anything less than nine or ten wins could mean Auburn will be back on the search. The buyout is friendly, especially compared to the rest of the names on this list.
Buyout: $20.3 million
Billy Napier: Florida Gators
Florida and Auburn are in similar boats. Teams that have competed and won SEC and national championships. Dan Mullen was fired after three seasons as head coach of the Gators. Mullen took the Gators to two SEC championship games in his short time. All of that success was derailed on a rainy and foggy night when a Gator DB threw a shoe against LSU. After that, the shoes came untied for the Gators. Florida suddenly became non-competitive, and Mullen was soon let go.
Florida beat out LSU for the hottest name in that season’s coaching carousel: Billy Napier. Napier was famous in Louisiana for saying, “Scared money, don’t make money,” in a postgame interview. Napier’s time in Florida has been underwhelming, and some could argue that the money is not well spent. Napier’s is 15-18 overall with Flordia and just 8-13 in SEC conference play. The Gators missed going bowling and had losing records in each of Napier’s first two seasons.
Napier and the Gators showed life at the end of 2024, winning their last four games, including a bowl win, to finish 8-5. Those four wins included wins over LSU, Ole Miss, and Florida State. Much of the success has been attributed to Sophomore quarterback DJ Lagway. Napier’s success and ability to stay on the sideline will rest on Lagway’s shoulder. The schedule is still daunting. Eight wins probably get Napier another year and would be good enough, and not championships may be the new standard in Gainesville.
Buyout: $26.7 million
Brent Venables: Oklahoma Sooners
‘I want to go back. And do it all over again. But I can’t go back, I know.’ Eddie Money’s banger from 1986 (you’re welcome for getting that stuck in your head) may very well be the theme song for the 2025 Oklahoma Sooners. Oklahoma was one of the proudest and most successful programs in the Big 12. They were consistently competing and winning conference championships. They were always in the mix for the College Football Playoff. The Sooner learned in 2024 that they’re not playing Kansas anymore. Oklahoma finished the season 6-7 and 13th in the league with a paltry 2-6 conference record.
The results sum up Venables’ time as head coach in Norman. Venables’ seat may be the hottest of any coach on the 2025 SEC hot seat list. The Sooners continue to backslide and are not showing much promise for 2025. The Sooners tied Arkansas for the most players, 30, to enter the transfer portal. In addition, there continues to be a revolving door for Venables’ coordinators. He will take over the play-calling duties on defense and hired Ben Arbuckle from Washington State to take over the offense. Arbuckle brings in quarterback John Mateer to hopefully jumpstart the turnaround. A difficult conference schedule and welcoming in Michigan in Week 2 make the seat grow warmer.
It’s a big buyout number in Norma, but what is the cost of turning into Nebraska 2.0 in the SEC?
Buyout: $34.9 million
Brian Kelly: LSU Tigers
A rocking home playoff atmosphere to open the College Football Playoff. They knocked off Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. Coming up just short in the national championship game against Ohio State. Not a bad year three at all. Oh wait, that was Marcus Freeman’s 2024 season at Notre Dame. The man who replaced Brian Kelly. Kelly left Notre Dame for LSU in 2021, citing a desire to be in an environment with resources to win a national championship, including a dedicated nutrition center, dining hall, and chef for the football program, which he felt was lacking at Notre Dame.
LSU fans must wonder if they should have hired Freeman instead of Kelly. Kelly has been ok at LSU but not great. He is 29-11 at LSU and 17-7 in the SEC in his three seasons. He has an SEC Championship game appearance and had back-to-back 10-win seasons in 2022 and 2023. That may work at Notre Dame, but this is Baton Rouge. LSU demands excellence and championships. Backsliding to 9-4 and missing the College Football Playoff is unacceptable. After not being big-time players in the Portal, Kelly and the Tigers have spent lots of money to bring in more talent to get LSU back on top.
The results must come. Kelly’s hefty buyout may keep him safe, but for how long? Winning is a thing at LSU, and their patience is growing thin.
Buyout: $51.7 million
Three Other Names for the 2025 SEC Hot Seat
- Mark Stoops (Kentucky) had wandering eyes last off-season, heavily flirting with Texas A&M. That makes the 3-9 2024 record and 1-8 SEC record less palatable. A 40+ million dollar buyout likely keeps him in Lexington.
- Sam Pittman (Arkansas) may be on some lists, but Arkansas should be careful. Pittman has done well in Fayetteville. He has them at 7-9 wins and is in the hunt to go bowling each season. The gamble to find 10 or 11 wins with a new coach is probably more likely to lead to a backslide like at Kentucky or Mississippi State.
- Jeff Lebby (Mississippi State) is not Mike Leach. Lebby is quiet and has had difficulty getting out of the shadow of Lane in Oxford. The cowbells were largely silent in 2024 and will likely be in 2025. When he was hired, Lebby was Hail State Athletic Director Zak Selmon’s top choice. At some point, Lebby will need results, or both may update their LinkedIn profiles to “open to work.”
Main Photo: Doug Engle/Gainesville Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The post SEC Tailgate Talk: 2025 SEC Hot Seat appeared first on Last Word on College Football.