Quantifying Hope: Cubs Maintain 92% Odds Despite Stumble in Minnesota

The Cubs peaked at 94.6% postseason odds with their drubbing of the Cardinals on July 4, but they’ve lost two of those points following a series loss to the Twins. Of greater concern than a pair of defeats is that the Brewers have gained nearly 20 points over the last week with big wins against the Dodgers. With the Cubs in New York and the Crew hosting the Nats, we could see additional tightening in both the odds and division standings.

I don’t know whether this is an unpopular opinion or not, but I don’t care for the idea of starting the series in the Bronx with a de facto bullpen game. While Chris Flexen could end up pitching at least half the game, I just can’t see how the risk/reward is worth it. Especially when the Cubs called up Jordan Wicks last week just to have him eat some garbage-time innings. I suppose having the lefty as a fallback option in case either Flexen or another starter falters is a decent Plan B.

This series strikes me as one that could go either really well or really poorly. Going out on a limb there with a three-game set that can’t be split, but I think the Cubs could go 1-2 and still walk away feeling okay if the offense shows up. But given the Yankees’ firepower, things could get very ugly if the Cubs aren’t hanging crooked numbers.

There are just three games left in the first half, so, with a two-game division lead looking as precarious as ever, getting two wins in the Bronx would be huge.

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