Quantifying Hope: Cubs at 94% Playoff Odds as MLB Action Resumes

The Cubs have been holding steady at right around 94% playoff odds for the last two weeks now, distancing themselves from everyone else in the division other than the Brewers. That one-game cushion looms large this weekend as both rivals take on top teams from outside the NL Central. Having the second-best record in the NL is a feather in the Cubs’ cap, but they really need to take care of business this weekend.

In addition to hosting a marquee matchup at Wrigley, the next three days could do quite a bit to stratify buyers and sellers ahead of the trade deadline. The Cubs have been actively gauging — that has always been such an odd-looking word to me — the market for a while now because they know they need to make a move. It’s looking like they could try to kill at least two birds with one stone by doing a deal to bring both a bat and an arm from a single trade partner.

To that end, the Diamondbacks remain a top target. They’re 11 games out of the NL West and 5.5 out of the Wild Card, so what they do over the next six games against the Cardinals and Astros may determine the course of their season. The Pirates are also open for business, though an intra-divisional deal for an impact player or two (Mitch Keller and David Bednar?) seems unlikely. There has also been talk about the Athletics looking to move players, but Mason Miller is probably not among the available options.

There’s no question the Cubs will be looking to buy, perhaps at the expense of a good chunk of their top prospects. Any significant trade is going to come with a steep cost, particularly since Jed Hoyer doesn’t have a lot of leverage at this point, but they can make the necessary additions without going scorched earth. I’m probably not telling you anything you don’t know, but don’t be surprised if and when your favorite up-and-coming prospect is in a different uniform come August.

It all comes down to whether Hoyer remains faithful to his needle-threading philosophy of the past or is willing to pull off another surprise like he did with Kyle Tucker.

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