Impossible to Pinpoint Cause for Cubs’ Poor Results in Series Finales

I’ll go ahead and say right out of the gate that this will be both brief and inconclusive because I don’t have an answer and can’t even hazard a guess that is anything other than pure conjecture. But with the Cubs getting Thursday off between a loss to the Marlins and the start of their crosstown series, there’s not much else to discuss. So let’s take a look at what the Cubs have done so far.

Their overall record of 25-19 is solid, putting them first in the Central and fifth in the National League with more weak opponents coming up. However, they are 4-6 in their last 10 and have continued to reinforce a frustrating trend of poor outcomes late in series. While they are 11-4 in series openers (7-0 at Wrigley) and 10-4 in the middle games (3-3 at Wrigley), they have fallen to 4-11 in series finales (1-6 both at Wrigley and on Sundays).

Is this just a case of Joe Maddon‘s meatloaf still sitting around in the fridge? Do the Cubs simply not want it enough or lack killer instinct? It’s been a long time since I was in the clubhouse, so I can’t say for sure whether some moldy leftovers are contaminating the rest of the food. What I feel pretty certain of, however, is that this isn’t about the players just backing off and taking it easy.

The most likely culprits are timing and a small sample, as the Cubs have played a number of good opponents over the first month-plus of the season. By the end of the season, those numbers could very well even out to where they’re close to a .550 record in all three categories. For all the focus on their anemic record in finales, people tend to overlook the idea that they can’t stay undefeated at home in openers. Nor will they be able to maintain anything close to a .724 winning percentage in first and middle games.

In the end, I can’t think of anything other than this being like flipping a coin and having it come up tails at an inordinate rate early on. Think of it like Carson Kelly starting out like the best hitter in baseball. He could well end up having the best season of his career, but that inexplicably hot start will undoubtedly be tempered by late summer at the latest. Or maybe you prefer to look at Dansby Swanson, who some Silly Sallys were comparing to Jason Heyward until a couple weeks ago.

I’m unwilling to call the Cubs’ late-series performance a total fluke, as there could be some underlying data or mentality placing them at a disadvantage. But I think this is more a matter of the results being weird in both directions, and that water will eventually find its level.

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