What’s old is new again as slugging third baseman Eugenio Suárez rejoins the Reds on a one-year, $15 million deal that carries a mutual option for 2027. Those kinds of options are rarely exercised, so it’s likely just a vehicle for a buyout that keeps Suárez’s actual salary below $15 million this season. I’ve only got about 15 minutes before I need to leave for the airport, so let’s quickly run this down as it relates to the Cubs.
The most obvious impact on the North Siders is that one of the game’s premier sluggers — and one of the most notorious Cubs killers — is back in a ballpark that suits his power better than any other. While others would have played better last season, his 346 expected homers at Great American Ball Park are 33 more than second-place Coors Field. That number is 97 more than he’d have hit in Boston, which is where we get to the next Cubs wrinkle.
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Boston has been seeking infield help and was eyeing Suárez since Alex Bregman signed with the Cubs, which has triggered a lot of talk about the fit between the two teams in a trade. The Red Sox have excess pitching and the Cubs have a presumed infield surplus, though they aren’t in any hurry to deal from it. Whether the Sox seek power or defense, or a combination of both, Matt Shaw appears to be an ideal candidate. Of course, the Cubs know as much and aren’t going to simply give him away.
The domino that could change the calculus is Nico Hoerner signing an extension, which would turn Shaw into a utility player for the foreseeable future. That’s probably not in the best interest of either player or team in the long run, but the Cubs are definitely in win-now mode. Even so, Shaw’s value decreases in lockstep with his cheap team control, and spending a year as a backup doesn’t necessarily showcase him. The potential for a lost season in ’27, or just part of one, further limits what the Cubs could get back for him.
This isn’t a call for Jed Hoyer to be anything other than reactive in listening to proposals for Shaw, mind you. I’m just saying that if the Cubs were going to make a trade, it would behoove them to do so sooner rather than later. The odds of them dealing Shaw are still pretty low, but they just got a little higher with Suárez joining Cincinnati.
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