Cubs Still Looking to Add Impact Reliever, Starter Within Limited Budget This Winter

The Cubs might have experienced a better postseason outcome had Cade Horton been healthy, but they still would have had trouble dealing with the legions of hard-throwing relievers their opponents rolled out. Both the Padres and Brewers boasted bullpens with top-10 fastball velocity and strikeout rates, while the Cubs ranked 13th and 15th in those respective categories. All pro sports are copycat leagues, and the Cubs have gone too long without prioritizing stuff and velo.

That may be changing, however, as they appear to be set on beefing up the bullpen this winter. They’ve already added righty Phil Maton on a very rare multiyear deal, and multiple reports say they’re not done with significant signings. Michael Cerami of Bleacher Nation said they’re “still in on top relievers,” and a report from Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic said “Their preference is to add another experienced reliever.”

Cubs Insider is hearing that the budget might not be super accommodating, which I’m sure is a shocking revelation, so exactly how the Cubs go about rebuilding the bullpen while also addressing the rotation and bench is an open question. Most agree that elite targets like Edwin Díaz and Robert Suárez — with projections of at least three years at $16 million AAV — are off the table, but Cerami noted Devin Williams as a possibility.

A potential reunion with Craig Counsell certainly adds some intrigue, though MLB Trade Rumors has Williams landing a four-year deal for $68 million. Are the Cubs going to lay out $17 million in AAV for a reliever? Sharma and Mooney believe the market for Williams could indeed end up stretching beyond the Cubs’ willingness to engage. They also noted Pete Fairbanks as being in the same boat, though MLBTR projects him at just two years and $18 million.

Brad Keller could still be in the realm of possibility if teams view him solely as a reliever rather than a starter, and former Cardinal Ryan Helsley might have to settle for less money after a disastrous second half with the Mets. Other possibilities are Kyle Finnegan, Luke Weaver, Seranthony Dominguez, and possibly even Gregory Soto or Emilio Pagan. All of those are expected to fetch at least two years and $16 million, so we’re still talking much bigger deals than the Cubs usually do.

The CBT payroll currently sits at just over $189 million per Roster Resource, and that’s with Maton’s AAV still TBD. He wasn’t among MLBTR’s top 50 free agents and doesn’t have any projections that I can find, but we can probably assume something in the $5 million range. That would put them almost exactly $50 million below the first luxury tax penalty level that many believe the Cubs view as a hard cap. That fits with what we’ve heard and with what has been assumed about Tom Ricketts being very wary of a work stoppage after next season.

The Cubs generate some of the highest revenues in the sport, but they may be in a worse position than most other organizations due to their greater reliance on gameday revenues. Teams that receive revenue sharing and draw smaller crowds are impacted as heavily, and those who have guaranteed broadcast deals get paid regardless. Wrigley generates loads of gameday revenue in and around the park, almost all of which disappears if there’s a lockout.

And because the Cubs own Marquee, they depend on subscriptions and carriage fees to drive most of their earnings on that front. Many people, myself included, cancel their Marquee subscription during the offseason. Those folks aren’t going to reactivate if there are no games. More may cancel or downgrade cable subscriptions that include Marquee for the same reason. Knowing what’s on the horizon, ownership and business operations don’t seem likely to green-light big spending.

The argument could be made, however, that now is actually the best time to spend. Not only do the Cubs have nearly $120 million in contractual obligations falling off the books after 2026, but other teams being at least as conservative ahead of the CBA’s expiration could suppress the market. The Rangers, for instance, are signaling a desire to shed payroll in a big way. Alas, it seems as though there may be a mandate to avoid CBT penalties, which is where Jed Hoyer’s driving passion for threading the needle comes into play.

Rather than going right up to the line, he’ll need to leave a buffer to accommodate mid-season trades and avoid an accidental overage due to incentives and whatnot. That means Hoyer might have $40 million to play with. If a quarter of that goes to another reliever, you can pretty much kiss Dylan Cease goodbye. But Sharma and Mooney report that the Cubs “will continue to pursue a starting pitcher who can compete at the top of their rotation.”

In addition to Cease (projected $27M AAV), we’ve heard the Cubs connected in some form or fashion to Framber Valdez ($30M), Tatsuya Imai ($25M), Ranger Suárez ($23M), Michael King ($20M), and Zac Gallen ($20M). With a strong possibility that Justin Steele opens the season on the IL, not to mention three other starters being in the final year of their respective deals, having security for this season and beyond is a must. Based on their needs and self-imposed limitations, King looks like the best fit from among this group.

When you break it down further, he really starts to stand out. Cease and Valdez might be too expensive; Imai could see a bidding war similar to Yoshinobu Yamamoto; Suárez would make four lefty starters who all throw low-90s with mediocre strikeout rates at best; Gallen is an innings-eater who can round out a rotation but can’t headline one. Though he lacks the elite velo the Cubs should be looking to add, King strikes out more batters than his would-be colleagues and he avoids hard contact to a great degree.

Getting him at that projected price would leave Hoyer with enough left over to bring in a veteran bat like Rob Refsnyder, who looks like a perfect fit on paper. Owen Caissie and/or Moises Ballesteros can serve as DH, then you round out the ‘pen with the typical hodgepodge of inexpensive reclamation projects. That could all be done with room to spare in the budget, assuming my figures are close to accurate.

Now, it’s also possible the Cubs opt to trade for a top-end starter rather than paying a premium in free agency. Edward Cabrera of the Marlins was brought up quite a bit at the deadline, and Miami’s new leadership could be looking to use him as a way to reload the farm system. While the Cubs lack much depth at the top of their own system, moving some top prospects for a flamethrowing 27-year-old with three years of control and a projected arbitration salary of under $4 million is an attractive pathway to improvement.

One other option I’ll throw out there is 31-year-old righty Cody Ponce, who is coming back to MLB after a very successful season in Korea. Not only will his deal be significantly lower than those listed above, but he’s also got significant professional experience as a reliever and could flex a little should the situation call for it. If the Cubs opt to invest even more heavily in the bullpen, Ponce could be a cheaper insurance policy with legitimate upside.

The upshot is that we’re probably looking once again at Hoyer having to fill out his roster with a more restrictive budget than most of us would like. Blame for that budget lies with ownership and biz ops, but Hoyer shoulders sole responsibility for exactly how it’s allocated. Barring a sudden change in strategy and spending capacity, it looks like we’ll see two more significant pitching additions with fringier signings and prospects completing the mix.

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