Cubs May Be Willing to Spend Big with Prospects in Pursuit of Pitching

The trade deadline is only a month away, but reports continue to suggest that the Cubs could pull the trigger on a new starting pitcher before the market really gets moving. Ben Brown has already been demoted to accommodate Shōta Imanaga‘s return, yet questions remain in Craig Counsell’s starting rotation. An argument could be made that the Cubs’ biggest issue in any acquisition will be adding salaries rather than parting with prospects.

Sandy Alcántara’s name has been ubiquitous for a while now, as the Cubs have had an eye on him for a decent portion of this season. His performance in June has been a breath of fresh air, with a 2.74 ERA and 46.4% groundball rate. He pitched well against the Phillies and Braves, likely telling teams more than when he faced the Rockies and Pirates. Having another year remaining at just an $11.2 million average annual value ($17.3 million actual salary) with a $21 million club option for 2027 provides both security and flexibility.

Another Marlins pitcher who may be of interest is Edward Cabrera. The righty has a 4.04 FIP and 25% strikeout rate this season, plus he’s got the kind of velocity the Cubs have failed to develop or procure for years now. He also has three and a half years left on his contract, giving the organization that acquires him plenty of time to let him continue to grow. Jed Hoyer has a thing for non-rentals, making Cabrera an excellent fit. 

According to Matthew Trueblood of North Side Baseball, Royals starter Seth Lugo has been the subject of trade negotiations. While Lugo’s stats are impressive, he’s been getting quite lucky. His actual ERA of 2.93 is nearly two runs better than his expected mark (4.71), fueled largely by a .236 BABIP against that sits almost 50 points below his career average. His 7.1% walk rate is a little better than league average, but he’s not been outstanding in any particular area. His contract is very similar to Alcántara’s money-wise, but his player option in 2026 is the last year he’s under team control. 

Although trades within the same division are rare, the Pirates appear to be open for business. Paul Skenes isn’t available, but Mitch Keller is starting to gain traction on the trade market. Bob Nightengale reported this week that the Cubs are indeed interested in Keller, as well as closer David Bednar. Keller gives up a lot of contact, but his walk rate of 6.1% is among the best in baseball. His arsenal features six different pitches, headlined by a four-seam fastball and a sweeper. Similar to Cabrera, Keller isn’t a free agent until 2029.

The Diamondbacks have been struggling as of late, with Corbin Burnes‘ injury as the biggest of several present issues. Trades involving Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are distinct possibilities as the organization looks to retool around its younger players. Gallen has been bad this year, with a 5.75 ERA and 12.7% barrel rate, so the prospect capital needed to acquire him would be quite low.

If Kelly is indeed available, he’s one of the best options on the market. Only owed $7 million this season, Arizona GM Mike Hazen’s ask is sure to be high. Trading for two starting pitchers makes sense for the Cubs on paper, although the previously mentioned financial restrictions could prevent them from going that route. Taking on the remainder of Kelly’s cheap contract might allow them to double up with someone like Alcántara.

Most prospects in the system should be available, including big names Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcántara. As of now, Hoyer only has Kyle Tucker for a few more months. Going all-in, something we saw hints of this past winter, is a very likely avenue for a baseball boss who is currently under contract for exactly as long as his star right fielder.

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