The Cubs have scored just four runs across the first two games of this series, barely squeaking by with a win on Friday before falling late yesterday. Not a great way to show how successful their deadline strategy was, but coming out of this series with a win and carrying a little momentum into the next seven games against the Reds and Cardinals. It would also be a good idea to keep from falling further behind in the NL Central race.
They’ll be trying to capture the W behind Colin Rea, who just about everyone thought would be displaced from the rotation by a new acquisition. That didn’t happen, so the Cubs need Rea to be better than what we’ve seen from him the last two times out. He only gave up one run in each of three starts prior to allowing nine in the last two starts, so the possibility is there.
My concern is that he’s given up 112 hits with just 75 strikeouts in 106 innings, which is a suboptimal combo against an aggressive young lineup with nothing to lose. This could be one where the Cubs really need to strike early and often offensively.
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That starts with first baseman Michael Busch, who’s shown a knack for hitting leadoff homers. Kyle Tucker could really use a big game in right, Seiya Suzuki is the DH, and Pete Crow-Armstrong cleans up. Carson Kelly does the catching, Ian Happ is in left, Willi Castro gets the start at third after playing second yesterday, Nico Hoerner is back at second, and Dansby Swanson is the shortstop.
They’re facing 26-year-old righty Brandon Young, who is making just his ninth big league start after matriculating steadily through the system. He isn’t a big strikeout guy, walks too many batters, and gives up a lot of loud contact. Young’s biggest asset is a 44% ground ball rate, but that hasn’t helped much when he also surrenders so many fly balls that leave the yard.
His 93-94 mph cut-ride fastball has been tagged frequently, which isn’t great for a pitch that makes up 44% of his repertoire. An 87 mph splitter is next at 19%, and it’s actually gotten worse results. Young’s curve gets really good depth, though hitters have been able to lay off it, then he’s got a cutter that also gets more depth than usual with poor overall results. Last is a change that tends to hang up in the zone way too often. That latter pitch is the only one thrown almost exclusively to lefties, with all the others seeing more balanced usage.
Well, the splitter is also thrown more often to lefty batters. Not that it’s working, as they’re slashing .313/.394/.594 against Young in the early going. Righties are at .308/.339/.519, so it’s not as though there’s a big concern about platoon advantages in this one. Young has walked multiple batters in five of his eight starts and he’s given up 46 hits in 36.2 innings, which tells us the Cubs should be able to get a few guys on base today.
There’s really no excuse not to end the weekend with a big win, but we’ve seen more than once how Sundays can go sideways. First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.
Game three against Baltimore.
Watch live on the Marquee Sports Network App. pic.twitter.com/c2TeUiMlCr
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) August 3, 2025
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