Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/26/25): Busch Leads Off, Suzuki DH, Boyd Bump Day

It’s August 26, which is a special day for me because both my daughter and my primary tattoo artist share it as a birthday. I texted Addison first today, for what it’s worth. We’re still getting used to the idea of having a kid in college, especially when the other one is driving and has a part-time job, but I’m finding that my days seem much longer now. That’s certainly been the case with the Cubs on the West Coast for games that start much later than I’d prefer.

Coming off a sweep of the Angels in Anaheim, Craig Counsell’s crew is in San Francisco to face a Giants team that has settled into a battle for third in the division. Their opponent in that race, the Diamandbacks, is in Milwaukee for three more against the Brewers, so it’d be really nice to see San Francisco firmly in fourth by the weekend. The Giants took two of three in Milwaukee, which is either a sign that they’re still dangerous or the Brewers are coming back to earth.

Whatever the case, the Cubs could really use a hot start to this series behind Matthew Boyd, who has been a little shaky over the last month. Following a stretch of 10 consecutive starts in which he allowed two or fewer runs, he’s given up two or more in four of five outings. That’s a lot of numbers, and three of those were still quality starts, but his strikeouts have been down and his command hasn’t been as sharp.

The good news is that he’s facing a lineup that might be the worst in MLB at facing lefties. As a team, the Giants’ 74 wRC+ against southpaws is two points worse than any other squad and their 32 homers are tied for 25th. They’re also near the bottom of the league in both walks and strikeouts, giving Boyd a lot more margin for error than he’d otherwise have.

If the bats provide an early lead, Boyd can really pitch downhill. That starts with Michael Busch at first base, Kyle Tucker in right, and Seiya Suzuki at DH. Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Carson Kelly is behind the plate, Ian Happ is in left, and Nico Hoerner plays second. Dansby Swanson is at short and Matt Shaw bats last at third base. Owen Caissie will make sure the bench doesn’t blow away, which is a very important role.

They’re facing Justin Verlander, the second future Hall of Fame pitcher over the age of 40 to oppose them in the last two weeks. Though the 42-year-old righty — who has been connected to the Cubs multiple times over the years — has lost some zip on his fastball, he’s still able to run it up there in the mid-90s. According to some charlatan on X, that means he was probably throwing 103 mph in his early days.

Rather than keeping that completely esoteric, some dude said that changes in radar gun technology mean that pitchers who were topping 85 mph back in the 90s were actually at 94 mph. He posited that a pitch loses 9 mph of velocity as soon as it leaves the hand, which is demonstrably false. It’s based on something that came out about radar tech in the 70s, and he was either being ignorant or intellectually dishonest.

The fact of the matter is that pitchers are throwing much harder now than ever before, with the average MLB righty sitting at 95 mph. Even if we remove any data from the conversation, just consider the advances in training and nutrition. Add in shorter outings, a greater emphasis on velocity, and much more focus on athletic development and sport specialization at younger ages. I’m not saying everything in there is good, mind you, just that it’s obvious pitchers are throwing harder.

And since Verlander being around for nearly two decades means I don’t have to tell you as much about him, I’d like to address the idea of how Babe Ruth or Ted Williams would fare in today’s game. To me, it’s as simple as the parable of the frog in the pot of water. Drop it in boiling water and it’ll try to jump out immediately, but turn the heat up slowly and it’ll just sit there. Drop the Bambino into a game now and Daniel Palencia will carve him up on three pitches, but have an orphaned George Herman Ruth come up in today’s game and he’ll figure it out.

Okay, back to Verlander, who is throwing his four-seam at a career-low 47.2% clip. That’s down about 10 points from his career average and around 20 from his high as a much younger man, replaced in part by a sweeper he has incorporated this season. At just 80-81 mph and with more horizontal and vertical movement from the 88 mph slider that accounts for nearly a quarter of his pitches, the sweeper is more of a weapon against right-handed hitters.

The four-seam, slider, and 79 mph curve — which gets serious depth from Verlander’s over-the-top slot — all see pretty equitable usage against hitters from both sides. The changeup serves as his way to neutralize lefty batters, and it’s been his best pitch even though he throws it less than 10% of the time. That leads him to negligible platoon splits, a hallmark of his career, though the numbers from both sides are 30-60 points higher now than they have been historically.

Verlander is no longer a big strikeout guy and he doesn’t get many grounders, but he doesn’t hurt himself too badly with walks and he keeps the ball in the yard fairly well. He’s very streaky at this point as well, giving up seven runs over 4.1 innings in his last start after holding the Rays scoreless with two hits over seven frames a few days earlier. He actually had a similar cycle in the two starts prior, which could mean he’s in line for a gem tonight.

Don’t let the 1-10 record fool you, this is a pitcher who is still perfectly capable of shutting the Cubs down over six innings or more. He’s also a guy who has shown that he can’t maintain that old sharpness with much consistency. That’s why they need to jump on him early to keep him from getting in a groove. Maybe easier said than done, but I have a feeling the Cubs will be up to the challenge tonight. I also have a feeling I’ll be struggling to make it to the end.

First pitch is at 8:45pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

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