Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/12/25): Busch Leads Off, Kelly Catching, Assad Starting

The Blue Jays have won 69 games, which makes the timing of this series anything but nice for a Cubs team that just dropped two of three in St. Louis and is 10-11 since the break. The North Siders will be north of the border for three games before coming home for three against the Pirates, then they host the Brewers for five games. With a 6.5-game divisional deficit, the Cubs really need to start stacking wins again.

Toronto has a firm grasp on the AL East, surging ahead of New York at the end of the first half and now holding a 4.5-game lead over the Red Sox. The Cubs managed to sandwich the All-Star break with series wins over both of those venerable franchises, so perhaps they can do the same this week. Oh, they also beat the Orioles two out of three at the start of August. The Rays are in Chicago a month from now to complete the box set.

Back to Tuesday’s action, where the Cubs will rely on an internal addition after failing to adequately address their pitching needs. Well, technically, Mike Soroka was supposed to have done that. Until the lone rotation addition Jed Hoyer made left his start with a shoulder issue and was subsequently placed on the IL. Despite a clean precautionary MRI performed in part due to a velocity dip, the Cubs knew Soroka was a big injury risk.

The original plan was to go with Ben Brown, who worked four innings in a 3-2 loss to the Reds last Monday, but Craig Counsell doesn’t care that I wrote up a bunch of words about that. Instead, it’ll be Javier Assad making his first appearance of the season after suffering an oblique injury early in camp and then reaggravating it during his initial rehab stint. The righty put up a 2.45 ERA over five minor league starts and has plenty of big league experience from the past three seasons.

Regardless of what Assad does, the Cubs need to score runs. They have tallied two or fewer in five of their games this month as their key hitters trudge through a collective slump. Michael Busch remains in the leadoff spot with a righty on the mound, then it’s Seiya Suzuki at DH and Kyle Tucker in right. Carson Kelly is behind the plate, Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Ian Happ is in left, and Nico Hoerner is at second. Dansby Swanson at short and Matt Shaw at third finish out the order.

Miguel Amaya has been activated and is available off the bench as needed. The Cubs designated Jon Berti for assignment to make room for Amaya, but that means they’re carrying three catchers for the time being.

They’re facing righty José Berríos, who has quietly been one of the most consistent starters in MLB over the last decade. He’s made 32 starts in each of the past six full seasons and is on pace to be right in that range again this year, with tonight marking his 25th outing. His strikeouts are down and his walks are up a little from his peak seasons, but he’s pitched to a 3.89 ERA despite working with diminished stuff.

The 31-year-old knows how to pitch, mixing his 92 mph sinker (31%) with a slurve (26%) that plays more like a sweeper, a running 93 mph four-seam (19%), and an excellent changeup (17%). He’s got a 90 mph cutter (6%) as well, though it’s been mostly ineffective. The same is true for his fastball, which has gotten pretty rough results over the last several seasons.

Berríos’s sinker is easily his best pitch and has been over the course of his career, but it’s lost a little zip and is really more of a setup offering at this point. The slurve works well and he’s equally comfortable throwing it to batters on both sides of the plate. That’s true of the sinker as well, though the four-seam is thrown far more often to lefties. The same is true for the changeup, which has been the best of the bunch this year in both total and per-pitch value.

The righty prefers to work up in the zone with most of his offerings, getting chase with the change in the lower third to the arm side and the slurve to the glove side. His splits are relatively even, though left-handed hitters draw far more walks and righties slug much better. If the Cubs can take advantage of that by setting the table for some big hits, they may be able to rope-a-dope him tonight.

I would really like to see Craig Counsell pulling levers to manufacture runs, something we saw more of when they were playing their best earlier in the season. Even when the bats were hot, the Cubs were stealing bases and forcing opposing defenses to make plays. You have to have men on base to do that, of course, but it just feels like they’re playing tight and being too conservative during this cool stretch.

Fingers crossed for a spark as this series gets underway at 6:07pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

 

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