Remember when interleague games were a fun little novelty? That faded quickly, so MLB’s response was to create a balanced schedule that sees each team play every other team now. The result is a farce in which the Cubs don’t play the Cardinals until late June and then play 15 straight games against AL opponents. The Cubs are embroiled in a stretch that has them facing Junior Circuit squads in 24 of 31 games, with the other seven coming against the Cards.
That is not balance. Get your you-know-what together, Robbie.
Anywho, I just realized that I’m a little behind on both the lineup and this week’s Quantifying Hope. The good news is that the delay was caused in part by editing a new Rundown from Michael Canter, who has returned from a sabbatical of sorts. It’s great to have that back in the rotation, though I rather enjoyed finding reasons to cover a few disparate topics each day.
The Cubs enter Friday’s contest with a one-game lead on the Brewers, who are in LA to face the Dodgers. Let’s hope that doesn’t end up in a sweep for the visitors, who took the Dodgers down in Milwaukee as part of an active seven-game win streak. The bad news for the Cubs is that the only team hotter than the Brewers is the Red Sox, who are at Wrigley for three games.
Maybe trading Rafael Devers was a good thing, after all. Even without their former offensive anchor, Boston has been scoring in bunches. Their streak includes five games with nine or more runs scored and just one with less than four runs. At the same time, their pitching staff has allowed as many as four runs just twice in that span. Colin Rea has got his work cut out for him today and may need to get great results from his new-look changeup.
Looks like the wind is blowing in and across from right field, which could limit the offense on both sides. The Cubs could really use a strong opening salvo, starting with Michael Busch at first and Kyle Tucker in right. Seiya Suzuki is the DH, Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center, Carson Kelly is behind the plate, and Dansby Swanson is at short. Nico Hoerner plays second and Matt Shaw gets back into the starting lineup at third.
They’re facing former South Side stalwart Lucas Giolito, who missed all of last season following an internal brace procedure to repair his right UCL. I somehow had the impression that Giolito had elite velo at one point, but he’s always been a 92-94 mph guy and remains in that range this season. He’s throwing the four-seam a little bit more than he has in the past few years, dialing up to 50% or so of his total pitches.
It’s been more effective due to good riding action with a little less cut than he’s displayed in recent years. His 82 mph changeup was a calling card during his best seasons with the Sox of a different color, but it’s fallen off pretty dramatically since 2021 and is now just meh. It tends to hang up in the zone and over the heart of the plate, which is part of why he gives up so much hard contact. His 87 mph slider is likewise less than great.
Giolito features an inside move with a shortened arm swing that still produces well above-average extension, making the fastball play up. Changing his mechanics in the offseason prior to the 2019 campaign resulted in huge improvements to his strikeout and walk rates, though only the latter has stayed there. Giolito peaked at a 33.7% K rate in 2020, but has tailed down to just 21.7% this season. Despite that and getting a relatively low percentage of grounders, he’s not been prone to allowing homers.
This guy is nearly as hot as his team, having allowed just three earned runs over his last six starts. He’s struck out 37 with 10 walks and only 24 hits in 38.2 innings, so the Cubs may need to get a hiccup or three in this one. For what it’s worth, two of those three earned runs came on solo homers. Giolito will go at least six in this one if he’s dialed in, and the Boston bullpen is pretty tough. Again, Rea needs to shove.
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First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.
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— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 18, 2025
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