The Cubs would have preferred to keep Cade Horton in the minors as a way to preserve both his workload and his service time, but injuries to the rotation forced their hand. Horton might force it further if he keeps pitching like he has. Despite now having pitched more innings in the majors this season that he had at any previous level of his life, Horton continues to get better. His last effort marked his sixth scoreless start of at least five innings since the start of July, most in MLB.
Horton’s 2.88 ERA on the season is second on the team to Matthew Boyd (2.61), and his 1.11 mark since July 1 is the best in the majors (min. 30 IP). Among all pitchers with at least 50 innings this season, the rookie is tied for 22nd with 67.9% first-strike rate. That allows him to pitch more efficiently even when he’s racking up strikeouts. More impressive than any of his stats is the supreme confidence with which Horton attacks the zone. He isn’t afraid to dare hitters to beat him.
Funny enough I imagine the Cubs are hoping he finishes 3rd as he’ll be awarded a full year of service time if he finishes in the top 2.
Horton is also a sneaky extension candidate, and I imagine that becomes even more so if he gets that full year of service time. https://t.co/va5ejxmKIm
— FullCountTommy (@FullCountTommy) August 25, 2025
All of that adds up to Horton rising to the top of the National League Rookie of the Year futures boards, where his +150 odds ESPN BET and +140 at DraftKings lead his peers. It’s a close race, with Brewers outfielder Isaac Collins (+165 ESPN, +180 DK) and Braves catcher Drake Baldwin (+190 ESPN, +240 DK) right on Horton’s heels. Sitting in fourth and rising quickly in his own right is a young man by the name of Matt Shaw (+2200 ESPN, +2500 DK). Horton may have an advantage because pitchers tend to get a spotlight, and we saw with Paul Skenes last season how even a belated call-up isn’t a problem.
If Horton is able to continue anything close to his current run and walk away with some hardware, he’ll put the Cubs in a similar predicament to the one facing the Pirates. By keeping Skenes at Triple-A Indianapolis until May 11 last year, the Pirates missed out on a free draft pick tied to MLB’s Prospect Promotion Incentive (PPI). Even worse, Skenes’ ROY honor meant he was granted a full year of service time despite not qualifying for it otherwise.
Coincidentally, Horton made his 2025 season debut in Indy and was eventually called up to Chicago on May 10. That means he could likewise earn a full year of service while the Cubs miss out on an extra pick, and he only needs to finish in the top two for ROY to do it. That wouldn’t be quite as bad for the Cubs because they don’t operate as a feeder team the way the Pirates do, but you know they don’t want to lose a year of control.
As my friend Tommy Meyers — whose kink consuming the worst Cubs takes from across social media — noted above, gaining that year of service time could make Horton a much more obvious extension candidate. Pitchers are tricky in that regard due to their inherent injury risk, so teams want to do what they can to leverage as much cheap control as possible. And you’re probably already aware that Horton has so little overall experience precisely because he underwent elbow reconstruction at Oklahoma.
Even operating with extreme pragmatism and understanding that another elbow or shoulder issue could skew the value of an extension, losing a season of league-minimum salary starts the clock ticking sooner. With Justin Steele‘s return still well into next season and exorbitant prices for top starters on the open market, locking Horton down beyond his current rookie deal should be somewhere near the top of Jed Hoyer’s itinerary.
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