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The Rundown: Schwarber Probably Not Worth Squeeze, Free Agency Predictions, Dodgers Win Marathon Game 3

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“You take the home from the boy, but not the boy from his home.” – Who Says You Can’t Go Home by Bon Jovi

If there is one free agent everybody has their sights on, it’s Kyle Schwarber. The ex-Cub is still beloved in these parts, mostly because of the mammoth home runs he hits. It’s also because Jed Hoyer gave him away for nothing in 2020, something Chicago’s top executive admits was a mistake. The War Bear has belted 219 home runs wearing the uniforms of the Phillies, Red Sox, and Nationals, and will head into free agency attached to the qualifying offer Philadelphia will no doubt extend him. Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicts Schwarber will get a five-year deal worth $160 million in free agency.

A potential work stoppage may lower that figure slightly, but the Red Sox are reportedly already all-in on Schwarber, and, according to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the slugger’s market is expanding. He listed the Phillies, Rangers, and Reds as potential fits. You can probably add the Mariners to that list, and Hoyer is expected to show interest as well. Bowden linked Schwarber to the Mets and Tigers, but is the juice worth the squeeze in this case?

“Players entering their age-33 season don’t tend to find themselves this high on the list, but Schwarber is an exception,” Feinsand wrote last week. “His plus power helped him lead the National League with 56 home runs and 132 RBIs while playing in all 162 games, setting a career-high in bWAR (4.7) and fWAR (4.9). Schwarber can play left field on occasion, but he’s essentially a full-time DH who will make any lineup better immediately upon arrival.”

Feinsand makes a valid point, but Schwarber will be 38 years old at the end of that deal. That contract won’t age well, especially if the 2027 season is shelved. Pete Alonso, who Bowden predicts will get six years and $182 million, might be a better fit heading into his age-31 season. Alonso is opting out of a two-year, $54 million deal that he signed last winter just as pitchers and catchers were reporting to Arizona and Florida. Six years at $30+ million seems like a stretch considering his light market last season. He’s also competing against Schwarber for potential suitors, but he doesn’t carry the burden of that pesky QO. That’s akin to Free Parking on Hoyer’s Monopoly board, at least for those who contribute payouts to its kitty from the Parker Brothers’ Community Chest.


Alex Bregman is also unencumbered heading into free agency with an expected contract Bowden predicts will match Alonso’s. As I wrote yesterday, Hoyer should find the stones to sign Alonso and Bregman, save his draft picks and IFA capital, and then trade Matt Shaw for pitching or a prospect or two. Schwarber would be a fun addition, and he’d make for great copy at Chicago’s annual fan fest when the organization celebrates the 10th anniversary of the 2016 team. As much as I’d love to see it, I’d rather Hoyer become a hot stove mercenary and put the Cubs near the level of the league’s elite teams. In that respect, adding Alonso and Bregman would be the better option.

Cubs News & Notes

Ball Four

I think baseball has had enough Brad Paisley for one lifetime.


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Central Intelligence

World Series News & Notes

The Dodgers beat the Blue Jays 6-5 in 18 innings to take a 2-1 World Series lead. Freddie Freeman walked it off with a solo home run off of ex-Cub Brendon Little.

Bo Bichette cost the Blue Jays a potential run and possibly the game when he was picked off first base in the top of the 2nd inning after misreading a strike call by umpire Mark Wegner. Toronto’s first three hitters, including Bichette, reached base that inning.

Bichette wasn’t the only player to commit a baserunning out. There were six putouts on the bases in last night’s game, each better than the one before.

Freeman is the active leader with 19 walk-off hits (regular and postseason combined) and became the only player in history with multiple walk-off homers in the World Series. He’s homered in seven of his last 10 World Series games and has passed Kirk Gibson as the team’s new Mr. October. Jesus Murphy!

Shohei Ohtani homered twice and doubled twice in his first four trips to the plate. In the process, he became only the second player with four extra-base hits in a World Series game — joining the White Sox Frank Isbell from 1906. The Blue Jays walked him five straight times after that. All but one were intentional.

Will Klein was the unsung hero of last night’s game, and nobody appreciated him more than Sandy Koufax. Klein tossed 72 pitches as the Dodgers’ finisher, allowing just one hit with five strikeouts while earning the win.

Los Angeles used 10 pitchers last night, including Clayton Kershaw. Nobody was more emotional to see Kershaw pitch than his wife.

Tuesday Stove

It appears that David Stearns has no intentions of bringing Alonso back to the Mets.

The baseball career of Bartolo Colón might be impossible to believe if it weren’t true.

Rob Manfred remains optimistic that MLB players will be able to represent the United States and other countries in the 2028 Summer Olympics.

Manfred is also spearheading an effort by six major U.S. pro sports leagues to seek a 50-state ban on microprop betting.

Trade speculation can be fun, no matter how unrealistic. That said, trading Skenes to the Cardinals might cause fans to burn Pittsburgh to the ground.

Extra Innings

Topping my Cubs Christmas wishlist…

Apropos of Nothing

Here are my early top 10 free agent predictions that will undoubtedly age poorly, though I’ll probably change them in November:

  1. Kyle Tucker – Dodgers
  2. Schwarber – Mets
  3. Alonso – Cubs
  4. Framber Valdez – Yankees
  5. Bichette – Blue Jays
  6. Bregman – Cubs
  7. Ranger Suárez – Giants
  8. Cease -Braves
  9. Tatsuya Imai – Mets
  10. Cody Bellinger – Yankees

Son of Apropos

What happens to Owen Caissie if the Cubs sign Alonso and Bregman? Nothing. The Cubs should keep Caissie, and I’ll explain why. Signing Alonso means Seiya Suzuki will replace Tucker in right field. Alonso can also play first against tougher lefties because Craig Counsell tends to sit Michael Busch in those games. Caissie would get work in right field because Suzuki would then slide back to DH. Caissie could also sub for Ian Happ on occasion, and he’d be an obvious choice if any of Chicago’s outfielders get injured. He’d get 300-350 plate appearances in that role.

There’s also a very good chance that Happ and Suzuki are nearing the end of their Cubs careers. They won’t be traded, but neither should be in Chicago by 2028. That makes Kevin Alcántara a tradeable asset, especially with new prospects Ethan Conrad and Kane Kepley in the system.

Reality Check

The uncertainty of the next CBA will prevent Hoyer from handing out any multi-year deals.

They Said It

  • “Defensively, [Shaw] candidly surprised us. That was an area where we didn’t know how it was going to go for him. He was playing largely a new position and doing it in the big leagues, and he was exceptional.” – Hoyer
  • “When you look at what [Matt] did at the plate in the second half, it was really impressive.” – Hoyer

Tuesday Walk-Up Song

Backed by Bruce Springsteen, Elvis Costello, James Burton, Glen D. Hardin, Tom Waits, k.d. lang, Jackson Browne, Bonnie Raitt, JD Souther, T-Bone Burnett, Steven Soles, and Jennifer Warnes.


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