We’re still in the nascent stages of the MLB offseason, with only a handful of notable free-agent signings and trades thus far. Still, with the GM Meetings now in the rearview mirror, teams have laid a fair bit of groundwork for the weeks and months ahead, both on the free agent and trade markets. Kyle Tucker stands as the offseason’s top free agent, and while there’s no indication he’s close to signing, there are also some hints falling into place about his potential market.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan wrote this week that some rival teams feel the Blue Jays are the likeliest landing spot for the four-time All-Star. They’ve been a popular speculative pick early on after a deep World Series run and with only one other major long-term commitment (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) on the books. Of course, Bo Bichette could be the priority, and it’s rare for any team to sign two free agents of that magnitude in a single offseason.
Tucker is a prominent enough star that some unexpected suitors figure to jump into the fray. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wrote this morning that while the Orioles are prioritizing pitching this winter, they haven’t ruled out a run at Tucker. Having already acquired Taylor Ward from the Angels, the addition of Tucker would free Baltimore to dangle young outfielders Colton Cowser and Dylan Beavers on the trade market in hopes of securing some controllable arms. There are quite a few pitchers of note who could be on the block this winter, and both Cowser and Beavers would intrigue clubs looking to move arms. Both are former first-round picks. Cowser has four more seasons of club control, while Beavers only debuted late in 2025 and thus has a full slate of six years of club control remaining.
Baltimore stands as a fascinating fit. President of baseball operations Mike Elias was the Astros’ scouting director when Tucker was selected with the No. 5 overall pick. The O’s don’t have anything on the books long-term, other than Samuel Basallo’s eight-year, $67MM extension. That $8.375MM annual value isn’t going to be stand in the way of any other long-term deals. Beyond Basallo, Tyler O’Neill is the only other player signed to a guaranteed deal beyond the 2026 season. His three-year, $49.5MM contract runs through 2028.
The Orioles’ long-term financial outlook is so clean that there’s no true impediment to them signing Tucker and a notable a free agent starter. That’s not to say such a scenario is likely, of course, but Baltimore’s 2026 payroll currently projects for about $105MM, per RosterResource, and that’s before potential non-tenders or trades of Ryan Mountcastle ($7.8MM projected salary), Keegan Akin ($3MM projection), Yennier Cano ($1.8MM projection) and/or Alex Jackson ($1.8MM projection) prior to tomorrow’s 5pm ET non-tender deadline.
Depending on what happens with the Orioles’ arbitration class, they could realistically see next year’s projected payroll drop into the $93-100MM range by tomorrow evening. The opened the 2025 season with a payroll around $164.5MM. We’re certainly not accustomed to seeing Baltimore spend like this, but this is also only the second offseason under new owner David Rubenstein. Elias has already publicly stated that he is “fully prepared” to sacrifice draft picks by signing free agents who rejected qualifying offers, and for all the focus on pitching, it was reported more than a month ago that the O’s also covet an impact bat — likely in the outfield.
None of this is intended to frame the Orioles as any sort of favorite to sign Tucker, to be clear. Far from it. However, the fit and logic behind it are probably more sensible than one might think at first glance.
Other clubs will still loom in the market. Passan cites the Phillies as a possible landing spot, should Kyle Schwarber sign elsewhere. The Yankees have been linked to both Tucker and a Cody Bellinger reunion. GM Brian Cashman indicated this week that Trent Grisham’s decision to accept his qualifying offer will not impact the team’s pursuit of Bellinger. Presumably, then, that thinking extends to Tucker as well. The Dodgers have also been linked to Tucker, though Passan doubles down on his prior reporting that their interest would “likely” be on a shorter-term but high-AAV deal — the type we rarely see taken by the consensus top free agent in a given offseason.