Alex Bregman’s market appears more muddled after the Blue Jays signed NPB third baseman Kazuma Okamoto. Toronto had been tied to the three-time All-Star but no longer seems to have room for an infielder (barring a reunion with Bo Bichette).
The Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cubs and Tigers have been the remaining most frequently speculated landing spots. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested last week that Boston has an offer on the table. In a column at ESPN this morning, Olney floated the possibility that the Red Sox might be willing to do something similar to the six-year, $171.5MM offer which the Tigers reportedly made to Bregman last winter. There’s no firm reporting about what the Red Sox have put on the table, to be clear, so the notion that the Red Sox could go long term seems mostly to be informed speculation on Olney’s part.
Boston landed Bregman on a three-year deal with opt-outs last winter. They juiced the average annual value to $40MM, albeit with significant deferrals that dropped the actual value closer to $30MM annually. Bregman is no longer attached to a qualifying offer and coming off a better season on a rate basis than he had in 2024. He’s also entering his age-32 season, so he may be more incentivized to secure the longest deal and maximum guarantee. The upside of taking short-term deals with opt-outs decreases as a player approaches his mid-30s.
ESPN’s Jesse Rogers and Mark Feinsand of MLB.com each wrote on Tuesday that many within the industry considered Arizona and Toronto the top threats to a Boston reunion before the Jays added Okamoto. That’d naturally point to the Diamondbacks as the strongest challengers now, yet most chatter on the Bregman/Arizona tie has been connected to a potential Ketel Marte trade. With D-Backs general manager Mike Hazen implying they could soon pull Marte from the market entirely, that could have a trickle-down impact on Bregman.
Arizona could certainly fit Marte and Bregman on the roster. The latter would step in as the everyday third baseman. The bigger question is whether ownership would sign off on another nine-figure infield investment after extending Marte for $102.5MM last spring. The long-term payroll would be a bigger stumbling block than this year’s outlook. Marte agreed to defer $6MM of his $15MM salary in 2026, so trading him would only free up a fraction of the first-year salary that Bregman would command.
Meanwhile, two of last year’s finalists appear to be less involved this time around. Detroit has reportedly thus far shied away from making another long-term offer. Top shortstop prospect Kevin McGonigle is on the doorstep of the majors. Bregman would be a significant upgrade over the current third base grouping of Colt Keith, Zach McKinstry and potentially Javier Báez once McGonigle arrives.
Manager A.J. Hinch gave a vote of confidence to McKinstry in response to speculation about a third base acquisition. “I get asked about third base all the time. I’m like, ’Our guy made the All-Star team,’” Detroit’s skipper told Audacy’s 97.1 The Ticket (h/t to Evan Petzold of The Detroit Free Press).
McKinstry was indeed an All-Star behind an excellent first half, but he has been a career utility player and hit .213/.278/.378 after the Break. It’s hard to believe he’s truly standing in the way of the Tigers signing Bregman — though it’s understandable that Hinch would publicly defend his player. Detroit’s $165MM payroll projection is already more than $20MM above where they opened the 2025 season, which seems a bigger obstacle to a significant free agent move.
The Cubs proposed a four-year, $115MM deal last winter. They’ve been positioned on the periphery of the market this time around. Matt Shaw had an encouraging second half of his rookie season. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins spoke at the Winter Meetings about their confidence in the 24-year-old infielder. It doesn’t appear that much has changed in the past month on that end. Feinsand reports that while the Cubs continue to have some level of interest in Bregman, they’re not expected to make the highest offer.