Breaking it down Moneyball-style
In light of discussions on Notre Dame football podcasts about how appealing the Irish are to transfer portal players given the program’s recent track record, my dad and I debated just how good the hit rate has actually been. So, inspired by that, I am conducting an analysis of Notre Dame’s transfer portal takes for the last three seasons. (I’m limiting it to Marcus Freeman’s time as head coach because what Brian Kelly did seems like it wouldn’t matter much to the players’ view of the Irish as a portal landing spot).
But here’s the thing: Notre Dame’s “hit rate” can be interpreted a few ways. Did a player contribute substantially to the team or flame out completely? And, if they did contribute, did they meet lofty expectations or exceed low ones?
Since the waters can get murky when answering these questions, I’m co-opting baseball’s metrics. I’ve come up with a batting average, a slugging percentage and an on-base percentage by deciding whether each player recorded a hit, struck out, or otherwise got on-base. Ultimately, the numbers were thus:
· Batting Average: 0.800
· Slugging Percentage: 1.467
· On-Base Percentage: 0.810
Here’s how I got to each. Leave your thoughts in the comments.
2022
Jon Sot
Sad as it is to acknowledge, Irish Illustrated’s Tim O’Malley is right that Sot was Notre Dame’s best player to start the 2022 season. His addition was a plus, and punters are important to a degree, but they aren’t power hitters, so Sot was a single.
Blake Grupe
Grupe came to Notre Dame from Arkansas State where he was solid for four years, so expectations weren’t astronomical. He made 14 of 19 field goals and all of his extra points on the year and didn’t cost the Irish any game that season, but he also didn’t win any for the team. He’s a single.
Chris Smith
Smith came from Harvard as an expected third-stringer but saw more responsibility after Jacob Lacey’s transfer mid-season. He was a big body on the interior defensive line that served as valuable depth, recording 17 total tackles, one TFL and one forced fumble. Single.
Brandon Joseph
Joseph wasn’t exactly supposed to be the next Kyle Hamilton, but he was supposed to be close; that turned out to be an unreasonable expectation based on a dope one-handed interception against Ohio State while at Northwestern in 2020. His tackling skills (his well-reported drawback) were meh, he almost cost Notre Dame the game against Cal by trying to catch a Hail Mary instead of knocking it down and there’s an argument he made a business decision by sitting out the regular season’s end with an injury. His only two notable contributions to the Irish were a pick-six to open the game against Syracuse (his only pass defended of the season) and knocking Jaxson Smith-Njigba out of the game against the Buckeyes. Neither moment was of real significance, but the Irish still got a 10-game starter out of the portal in a room that needed to start DJ Brown opposite him. Joseph was a hit-by-pitch.
2023
Sam Hartman
Hartman was brought in from Wake Forest to take Notre Dame to heights their quarterbacks of the previous decade-and-a-half could never reach. He didn’t reach those heights either. That was partly on him, partly on a first-time offensive coordinator who wasn’t ready for the job and partly on an embarrassment of a wide receiver room. Hartman had abysmal games against Louisville and Clemson and turned the wrong way on a handoff against Ohio State, but that doesn’t make him a strikeout. He led the Irish to nine wins and saved the Duke game with a 4th-and-16 scramble. Swung for the fences and hit a ground rule double.
Javonte Jean-Baptiste
Buried on the depth chart for five years at Ohio State, Jean-Baptiste became one of Notre Dame’s ten (if not five) best players in his final collegiate season. The defensive end finished the year with 49 total tackles, 11 TFLs and 5.0 sacks. His highlights were a season-high eight tackles against his former team and a touchdown on a blocked kick against Stanford. It’s a tough call to make, but I’ll give JJB a triple given just how good he was relative to the rest of the team and the expectations based on his prior production.
Thomas Harper
Harper supplanted TaRiq Bracy as the starting nickel for the 2023 season after coming from Oklahoma State. His fifth and final collegiate season was his best, as he totaled 39 total tackles, six tackles for loss, 2.0 sacks and three passes defended. Nickel can be an overshadowed position, especially when your other cornerbacks are Cam Hart and Benjamin Morrison, but Harper was a valuable ballhawk and thumper. Again, a tough call between double and triple, but I’ll go double.
Devyn Ford
Coming from Penn State for the 2023 season, Ford quickly wound up buried on the depth chart behind the likes of Audric Estime, Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love, and even Gi’Bran Payne (all due respect to Payne). A concussion in the second game of the year didn’t help, but Ford stuck it out with the Irish for two seasons. He only totaled 21 carries, 99 rushing yards and one receiving touchdown on six catches while in South Bend, but Ford was a special teams staple and team-first guy. Case in point, he agreed to switch to safety before Payne’s pre-2024 ACL tear allowed him to return to running back. That’s a sacrifice fly.
Spencer Shrader
Like Grupe, Shrader was a G5 kicker before coming to South Bend, although his numbers were more concerning than Grupe’s. Shrader’s calling card was supposed to be the strength of his leg. Sure enough, he set the school record for the longest made field goal with a 54-yarder against NC State. But in a game the Irish lost by 3 to Ohio State, he missed his only kick. In my estimation, finishing the year sub-70% on field goals (15 of 22) doesn’t cut it if you arguably cost your team a game and aren’t the reason your team wins any other games. Still, it’s a tough call, because he did hit two 50-plus-yard field goals against Louisville and all three of his field goals to give the Irish a sliver of hope against Clemson. Considering the situational value of kickers and some of the long kicking situations Freeman saddled Shrader with, I’ll say that he’s on base thanks to catcher interference.
Antonio Carter II
Somewhat of a flyer take from FCS Rhode Island, Carter was an intriguing wild card in a safety group that hadn’t yet seen Xavier Watts turn into the national defensive player of the year. Plus, Carter had multiple years of eligibility to potentially use with the Irish. Instead, he barely saw the field and transferred out after one season. A strikeout.
Kaleb Smith
The graduate transfer from Virginia Tech was supposed to bring invaluable experience to an unbelievably inexperienced wide receiver room. Instead, he didn’t make waves in spring ball and medically retired for mental health reasons before even reaching the spring game. Strikeout looking.
2024
Riley Leonard
Notwithstanding his atrocious play against Northern Illinois — a game where, to be fair, most players were abysmal — Leonard was the driving force of a Notre Dame offense that was good enough to end a more-than-30-year streak without a major bowl win and make the national championship game. He also set the single-season record for rushing touchdowns by an Irish quarterback. At the most important position in football, Marcus Freeman and co. got the right guy. Home run.
Jordan Clark
Like Harper, Clark was brought in from the Big 12 (this time Arizona State) to start at nickel. He didn’t match his overall production from his previous two seasons with the Sun Devils despite playing five more games in 2024. Still, with 37 total tackles, two TFLs, five passes defended and one interception — and by avoiding an ejection after a headbutt against Louisville — he was a full-year starter and allowed Al Golden to play man coverage in a base 4-2-5 defense to his heart’s content. A double.
Mitch Jeter
Keep in mind what I said about Shrader. Jeter finished 2024 with an even worse field goal percentage (13 of 21 for 61.9%) after being arguably the best kicker in college football for two seasons at South Carolina. But, in fairness, several of Jeter’s misses were while rehabbing a groin injury. And, beyond excuse making, he hit all three field goals in a road-opener against Texas A&M, made two of three in the Playoff against Indiana, made two of two against Georgia, and made both CRUCIAL attempts — including a de facto game-winner — against Penn State in the Orange Bowl. The value of kickers is often situational, and Jeter’s ranking benefits from his misses coming when it didn’t matter and his makes coming when they mattered most. He’s a double.
Beaux Collins
Collins’ numbers in South Bend were similar to those he put up in each of his three previous years at Clemson. The difference is he played in 16 games in his one year at Notre Dame compared to 10 or 11 the prior three years. Like the other receivers in the 2024 Irish transfer haul, Collins could only do so much in a run-first offense — although, to be sure, he had more than his fair share of drops. But he still caught a back-shoulder on the go-ahead touchdown drive against Texas A&M (and avoided an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on his subsequent shove of the defender), and caught a touchdown pass against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. That’s a single on a defensive error.
Jayden Harrison
At the risk of stretching the baseball metaphor too far, Harrison was supposed to be a designated hitter. His best year at Marshall saw him catch 28 passes for 410 yards and one touchdown, and he was going to be at best Notre Dame’s No. 3 receiving option last season. The reason the Irish brought him in was for his kickoff return (i.e., home run) potential after he had three such touchdowns for the Thundering Herd. It took a long time, but he finally delivered one against Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. The fact Harrison hit a home run doesn’t make him one, if that makes sense, but meeting expectations in a crucial moment easily makes him a hit. Single.
Kris Mitchell
Could Mitchell have done more with a better passing quarterback in a more passing-focused offense after actually getting spring reps with an uninjured starting quarterback? Maybe, especially considering he was a 1,000-yard receiver at FIU. But ifs and buts, candy and nuts, etc. Mitchell signed on with Notre Dame and got saddled with a certain offense in which he recorded 22 (mostly forgettable) catches, 224 yards and two touchdowns. He never cost the Irish any game but was never a difference-maker. Still, playing in all 16 games as a starting-level receiver for a team that made the national championship means he put team glory first, so that’s a walk.
Rod Heard II
After seeing what Brandon Joseph actually was for Notre Dame (rather than what he was hoped to be), there was an expectation that Heard could at least be Joseph. He wasn’t really — even with the versatility of playing both safety and nickel — although you could argue that was more because of all the guys in front of him (i.e., Morrison, Clark, Watts, Leonard Moore, Christian Gray and Adon Shuler). But Heard turned out to be necessary when injuries and Jaden Mickey’s portal entry meant the Irish needed him to play cornerback against Louisville. Delivering in that situation and being a decent contributor across 16 games makes him a single.
Tyler Buchner
He counts since he technically transferred back from Alabama, even if it was primarily to play lacrosse. Buchner popped up on two special teams fakes in 2024 — a field goal against Georgia Tech and a punt against USC — both of which wound up in first downs. Getting that from a former high school blue-chip quarterback turned walk-on wide receiver is a single.
Max Hurleman
If I’m going to count the walk-on Buchner, I should count fellow walk-on and special teams staple Hurleman. Hurleman spent four years at Colgate before joining the Irish for a graduate year. The cornerback took over punt return duties early in 2024. It’s a different discussion about why the Irish can’t seem to turn a four-star wide receiver into a competent punt returner, but Hurleman did an adequate job, never muffing a punt and recording 138 yards on 23 returns. That’s a walk.
RJ Oben
Woof. This would have been an easy strikeout before that strip-sack fumble against Georgia. Oben didn’t need to be as much of a pleasant surprise as Jean-Baptiste the year prior, but the Duke transfer needed to make up some of that production at defensive end. Instead he finished a 16-game season (in which he probably would have seen even less action if not for season-ending injuries by Jordan Botelho and Boubacar Traore) with 19 tackles, two TFLs and one sack. But, again, that one sack was a strip-sack against Georgia. Oben owes Kirby Smart a bouquet of roses for deciding to pass in that situation and Junior Tuihalamaka a steak dinner for recovering that fumble, turning Oben from a strikeout to a hit-by-pitch.
What have we learned from this? Marcus Freeman’s Notre Dame program majors in high school recruiting and minors in the portal. A couple of guys have exceeded expectations while others have fallen short of theirs or just been meandering contributors taking up a roster spot. But the Irish have still found a way to stumble into “success” as a result of need to play transfers at certain positions and thanks to situational positive moments in high stakes moments on the gridiron. And, most importantly, landing a home run at the most important position in football with Riley Leonard was a catalyst for a title game run in 2024.