And now, the moment you’ve all been waiting for…let’s get ready to RUMBLE!!!
It’s finally here. NCAA Tournament action kicks off tomorrow afternoon, and I am absolutely thrilled. The conference tournaments were revealing in and of themselves, but there’s really nowhere to hide in the NCAA Tournament. Every single team on this list will be playing at least one top 25 team over the next four days. It’s time to win…or go home. Time for the last pre-tournament edition of Top Ten Talk!
1. North Carolina (18-0, 9-0 ACC, ACC Champions)
Movement: none
Last Week: none
This Week: vs. winner of No. 14 Clemson vs. No. 16 Navy, TBD
The tournament’s top overall seed is the favorite to win it all, especially with two victories over Boston College. UNC boasts the nation’s top scoring defense, its second-best scoring offense, and the best scoring margin in the country — a whopping +10.83. That’s not a misprint — the average Tar Heels game this season is a victory by running clock. Unfortunately for Clemson, a potential second-round opponent, that’s happened in both of the games these two teams have played. North Carolina won 18-5 on March 15 and 17-7 on April 25. If you’re not Boston College or Northwestern, good luck staying within five goals of the Tar Heels.
2. Northwestern (16-2, 8-0 B1G, Big Ten Champions)
Movement: up one spot
Last Week: none
This Week: vs. winner of No. 13 Michigan vs. Akron, TBD
The key to Northwestern’s tournament run will come in the possession battle. The Wildcats are fifth nationally in draw control percentage, winning an astounding 64.2% of their draws. However, Northwestern has been known to struggle in transition, with a clearing percentage of just 90.1% (outside of the top 30 nationally). Notably, Michigan and Maryland, two potential opponents in Northwestern’s quadrant, are in the nation’s top 15 in that category. The Wildcats are great at getting the ball, but if they want to get to the Final Four, they’ll need to make sure they hold onto it.
3. Boston College (17-2, 8-1 ACC, ACC Runner-Up)
Movement: down one spot
Last Week: none
This Week: vs. winner of No. 17 Loyola Maryland vs. No. 19 Stony Brook, TBD
Don’t let the dropped ranking fool you — the Eagles are still the second-best team in the country. They couldn’t topple North Carolina, but no one else has been able to either. The main question with BC is how many opportunities the offense will get to put the ball on frame. This team is eighth nationally in shots on goal per game at 26.2, but was held to 20 or below in both losses against North Carolina. Rachel Clark and Emma LoPinto have both been great at creating scoring chances for themselves this season, but the Eagles likely need a third player (Molly Driscoll, perhaps?) to self-create if they want to repeat.
4. Florida (17-2, 5-0 Big 12, Big 12 Champions)
Movement: none
Last Week: W vs. UC Davis 22-2, W vs. Arizona State 21-10
This Week: vs. Mercer, vs. winner of No. 22 Denver vs. No. 10 Stanford
There’s a fair critique to be made about strength of schedule, but the Gators might be the hottest team in the nation right now. Florida has scored at least 20 goals in four of its last five games, and allowed five or fewer goals in four games in that same timespan. The offense is packed to the gills with scoring power — Frannie Hahn, Gianna Monaco, Clark Hamilton and Jordan Basso all have at least 60 points this season. Elyse Finnelle did get pulled after a rough first quarter against Arizona State, but that game snapped a streak of six games with a save percentage of .500 or better. The Gators have the nation’s fifth-best offense and eighth-best defense. Good luck.
5. Yale (14-3, 5-2 Ivy, Ivy League Champions)
Movement: up two spots
Last Week: W vs. No. 16 Penn 11-10, W at No. 5 Princeton 17-6
This Week: vs. Albany, vs. winner of No. 21 Brown vs. No. 19 Syracuse
Well, after a four game stretch that included three overtimes, an offensive explosion against Harvard, and three one-goal victories, the Bulldogs finally erupted. And they did so at the perfect time, dominating Princeton to win their second consecutive Ivy League Tournament. Sky Carrasquillo and Jenna Collignon combined for 11 goals, and Yale outshot Princeton 28-1 after the first quarter. A game that was 3-2 after 15 minutes turned into a 12-4 blowout by the end of the third quarter. The Bulldogs have a top-five defense for a reason, and if their offense finds a groove, look out.
6. Maryland (14-5, 7-1 B1G, Big Ten Runner-Up)
Movement: none
Last Week: none
This Week: vs. Fairfield, vs. winner of No. 21 Army vs. No 12. Penn
The narrow loss to Northwestern in the Big Ten title game snapped a five-game winning streak, but Maryland’s reward isn’t exactly a vacation. Army is in the top 20 in both scoring offense and scoring defense, and neither Army nor Penn allow over 10 goals a game. Maryland CAN win slugfests — the Terps have the 19th-best scoring defense in the nation, but a team with the 58th-ranked scoring offense in the country won’t exactly be able to pad leads. If Maryland wins the draw, this team should be in fairly good shape for the first few rounds. But if the Terps falter in the circle, they could be headed for an early exit.
7. Virginia (11-6, 5-4 ACC)
Movement: up two spots
Last Week: none
This Week: vs. LIU, vs. winner of No. 15 Duke vs. No. 11 James Madison
If you ignore the pair of losses to Boston College, the Cavaliers have won their last four games. The nation’s 57th-ranked defense has actually been solid against teams that aren’t BC — the last time Virginia gave up double-digit goals to another team was March 29. Two major questions for this team. First: how good can junior goalkeeper Mel Josephson be when the lights are at their brightest? Second: are Jenna Dinardo and Kate Galica good enough to take over games offensively? If the answers to both of those questions are positive, the Cavaliers could make a deep run.
8. Princeton (14-3, 6-1 Ivy, Ivy League Runner-Up)
Movement: down three spots
Last Week: W vs. No. 17 Brown 17-16, L vs. No. 7 Yale 6-17
This Week: vs. No. 23 UMass, vs. winner of Liberty vs. No. 9 Johns Hopkins
Wow. A team that had won 14 of its last 15 games got handed a running clock in the Ivy League championship…at home. The Tigers were held to season lows in shots, shots on goal and draw controls. Princeton goalkeeper Amelia Hughes has been riding the struggle bus as of late — she was pulled after shortly over a quarter in both Ivy League tournament games, and has allowed 10 or more goals in the prior three appearances. The defense giving up 15 or more goals in three of the last five games is a massive red flag, and the Tigers need to plug those holes quickly to avoid another postseason loss.
9. Johns Hopkins (12-6, 5-3 B1G)
Movement: down one spot
Last Week: none
This Week: vs. Liberty, vs. winner of No. 23 UMass vs. No. 8 Princeton
Despite the lower rating in the IWLCA poll, the Blue Jays will be hosting Princeton in the event that both teams advance. That’s a good sign for Hopkins, which has rediscovered its offensive mojo after a few duds at the start of April. Ava Angello has stepped up admirably in the absence of Ashley Mackin (Angello has 17 points in her last four games), and four other players on the roster have at least 25 points. The defense is 50th in goals allowed per game, so while it’s not exactly dominant, it’s also difficult to push around. The Blue Jays will be a tough out for any team.
10. Stanford (14-5, 7-2 ACC)
Movement: none
Last Week: none
This Week: vs. No. 22 Denver, vs. winner of Mercer vs. No. 4 Florida
Good gracious, what a rough draw. Despite having a resume that’s better than Virginia’s, the Cardinal have to deal with Denver and then (probably) Florida, while Virginia gets LIU and then either James Madison or Duke (who ALSO had a worse ACC record than Stanford). Stanford’s 11th-ranked scoring defense should keep the Cardinal in almost any game, but both Denver and Florida are in the top 15 in that category. But Denver’s a better scoring team than Stanford by almost a goal per game, and Florida is better than Denver by a full two goals. Aliya Polisky and Ava Arceri need to have massive games if Stanford is going to advance.
Just missed the cut: James Madison (path: No. 15 Duke, No. 7 Virginia), Penn (path: No. 21 Army, No. 6 Maryland), Michigan (path: Akron, No. 3 Northwestern)