The first baseman is gone, and with that exit comes a departure of home run power.
Northwestern’s record-shattering bat has entered the transfer portal. While on the one hand it makes sense, it’s also a devastating loss for an upstart program.
Trent Liolios spent three years in Evanston and will be graduating in just a few short weeks, meaning he’ll be entering the portal as a graduate transfer. As his journey as a Northwestern student comes to an end, it’s also the perfect time to maximize his value in the portal.
But that begs the question: what is Northwestern baseball losing?
The Day-to-Day Player Perspective
Whether in a slump or seeing success, there’s value in going out and playing every day. This rings true for Liolios by all accounts and measures, as he missed just one game over the past two seasons. Even amid cold stretches, fans still saw the junior heading to the plate to hit regardless.
There are also highs and lows to streaky hitting, but when Liolios was hot, he could downright carry a Northwestern offense. Knowing there’s a player coming up who just keeps hitting home runs and getting on base brings a level of comfort to Northwestern pitchers while also striking fear into the opposition. Liolios, at his best, brought that comfort for NU players and fans, who knew the team would likely be scoring at least a few runs with him in the lineup.
In Liolios, Northwestern is also losing a level of patience at the plate. He consistently worked later into counts, drawing walks and tiring out pitchers in a day and age where pitch count is more important than ever. While there is certainly too much swing-and-miss in his game at times, shown by his high strikeout rate alongside his walk rate, Liolios was managing to have strong at-bats throughout a lengthy season.
The Statistician Perspective
There’s a famous line in the movie Moneyball, where Billy Beane, played by Brad Pitt, suggests the scouts take Jason Giambi and “recreate him in the aggregate.”
For Northwestern, they could take a similar approach when it comes to Liolios.
Weighted runs created is a statistic that provides an estimate of a player’s total offensive value in runs. In 2025, Liolios had a wRC of 37. The team’s total? 323. In essence, with the loss of Liolios alone, Northwestern loses 11.5% of its offensive production after ranking 10th of 17 in the Big Ten in runs scored. That is, of course, without including the value of graduating seniors in the lineup, but I digress.
One could also cite the home run numbers, Liolios having 16, or his OPS being .975 on the season. A major issue, however, was the streaky hitting of Liolios, seeing as he ended the year on a major cold skid. His average dropped from .379 after the Illinois series to .263 by the season’s end.
It’s become abundantly clear Liolios was an offensive threat, but there is also only so much these metrics can quantify.
It’s valuable to note so many of these home runs and major hits came in crucial points in the game. Liolios excelled in late-game scenarios when the score was narrow and hits had the highest value. Due to win probability added (WPA) not being a widely consistent or accessible statistic in college baseball, the exact value is hard to determine. Whether that clutch hitting is sustainable season over season remains to be seen, as this power surge was a new development for Liolios.
The decision now lies with Ben Greenspan and his specialty: recruiting. The portal is opening. Greenspan has already recruited Nick Barron, a first baseman who had a 1.026 OPS as part of a 24-1 IMG Academy team, according to MaxPreps. The question that remains is whether this sort of talent can recreate the magic and production of Trent Liolios.