The Wildcats have a lot to improve upon from Thursday.
This afternoon, No. 1 Northwestern will take on No. 15 Penn State in the finals of the Big Ten tournament. In addition to back-to-back conference tournament titles being on the line, the Wildcats will be fighting to keep its 42-game home win streak (and counting) alive. If they win this game, they will likely secure the No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament.
The last time Northwestern and Penn State faced off this season, the Nittany Lions narrowly defeated the Wildcats 14-13 in overtime. Here’s what NU needs to do to prevent that from happening again:
Limit Massive Draw Control Runs
It’s going to sound like a broken record at this point, but Northwestern letting its opponents win several consecutive draw controls has either killed the team’s momentum or cost it games. The most recent example came in the Big Ten tournament semi-finals against Johns Hopkins when the Blue Jays went on a 5-1 run in the second quarter to cut Northwestern’s lead from 7-2 to 8-7. During this stretch, Hopkins also went 5-1 on draw controls, meaning that they scored every time they got the ball.
This is not an issue exclusive to the Hopkins game — runs where Northwestern’s opponent repeatedly won draw controls and scored have happened in matches against Rutgers, Notre Dame, Syracuse, and Michigan as well, just to name a few. On the other hand, when the Wildcats dominate on draw, they are unstoppable. And despite NU beating Penn State 20-10 on the draw, the Nittany Lions won the game partially because they won three of the final four draw controls.
“Win the draw, win the game” is not always the solution. But Northwestern is a team that thrives off its draw-control victories, and it must stay consistent and not slip up in the circle.
Improve Shot Selection
Northwestern shot .382 on Thursday against Hopkins, its third-lowest shooting percentage of the season and its third game shooting less than 40%. The only two games where it shot worse than that match were its first game against the Blue Jays (.378) and versus Penn State (.361). Considering that two of the Wildcats’ three games shooting under .400 have resulted in either losses or games that came down to the wire, it is evident that they cannot afford to be sloppy if they want to ensure victory. This holds especially true since Penn State is one of the best free-position shooting squads in the nation — but more on that later.
During the Big Ten tournament semi-finals, Northwestern ended some of their offensive possessions way too quickly because of bad shots initiated from far out. Graduate student Izzy Scane, usually the star for the ‘Cats, had a sub-par game by her standards — getting held to just one goal (her lowest single-game goal total of the season) and two assists while missing seven shots and committing nine turnovers. But it wasn’t just her, though: other major contributors like graduate student Erin Coykendall also gave away the ball immediately after NU gained possession because of trigger-happy shooting.
Don’t get us wrong: Northwestern is a phenomenal shooting team. Its’ overall .478 shot percentage is 14th in the nation, and players like Scane, Coykendall and sophomore Madison Taylor are three of the best scorers in the country in their unique ways. But that needs to show this afternoon more than it did on Thursday.
Lock in on Free-Position Defense
When Northwestern last played Penn State, the Nittany Lions converted on four of its six free-position shots, with three of those goals coming in the final seven minutes of the game. They rank 11th in the nation and first in the Big Ten with a .561 free position percentage (Northwestern, by comparison, is ranked 53rd with a .462 FPP despite having one of the best free position shooters in the nation in Taylor), which means the Wildcats will have to lock in on defense for those eight and twelve-meter shots and be aware of the Nittany Lions’ attempts to draw fouls.
A lot of weight will be put on fifth-year goalie Molly Laliberty. She’s proved to make critical saves when it mattered the most (like when she made the game-winning save versus Hopkins), but did have her lowest save percentage of the season (.263) against Penn State. With momentum going in her favor, Saturday would be the perfect opportunity to bounce back.
On paper, Northwestern is a much better team than Penn State and should be expected to capture its second-straight Big Ten tournament title in front of a sold-out home crowd. But the Nittany Lions, who have upset other top teams like No. 11 Maryland and Hopkins, are not to be underestimated. The Wildcats won but looked beatable on Thursday, and have a lot to work on come time for finals. But we’ve seen what a peak Northwestern looks like time and time again, and if that version of the team comes out on Saturday, the rest of the NCAA will be put on notice.