Northwestern needs the power surge to continue and its stars to break out of their slumps.
After clinching the regular season Big Ten Championship, Northwestern’s focus turns to the Big Ten Tournament in Iowa City. With a first-round bye, the No. 1 seed ‘Cats will face the winner of No. 9 Purdue vs No. 8 Indiana in the quarterfinals on Thursday at 11 a.m. CST. The Boilermakers and Hoosiers have both stolen games from Northwestern this season, and No. 4 Nebraska, which sits in Northwestern’s half of the bracket, led Northwestern 5-0 in the fourth inning before a weather delay canceled the teams’ series finale in late April. Potential meetings between No. 2 Michigan and No. 3 Rutgers would occur in the championship game.
2024 #B1G Softball Tournament Bracket Released https://t.co/YBN2caeRpJ pic.twitter.com/xNsJiNsSMF
— Big Ten Softball (@B1Gsoftball) May 5, 2024
Here are three key storylines to watch as the ‘Cats look to win back-to-back Big Ten Tournament titles for the first time in program history.
Ashley Miller’s struggles in the circle
Perhaps the biggest narrative to watch as Northwestern competes in the Big Ten Tournament is what version of Ashley Miller the ‘Cats get. The 2024 Big Ten Pitcher of the Year finished the regular season with 165 strikeouts, a 16-4 record and a conference-best 1.34 ERA.
But Miller’s last five appearances compared to the rest of her Big Ten workload have been uncharacteristically poor.
Toggle through the different statistics listed in the graphic, and you’ll notice in her last 21.2 innings of work, she’s throwing less strikes, walking considerably more batters while striking considerably less hitters out, thus inflating her WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) and earned run average.
All of these problems have stemmed from struggling to find the strike zone. In 10 innings of work against Indiana, Miller only threw strikes 44.6% of the time over a large sample size of 242 pitches. For reference, in her first 12 outings in conference play, over 60% of Miller’s pitches were thrown for strikes. Too often the ball flung out of her arm awkwardly either dribbling in the dirt or ending up way below the batter’s knees. Occasionally, she lost total control sailing pitches high and wide of Emma Raye behind the plate. Eight of her 19 wild pitches this season came in the weekend series against Indiana.
The lack of control has inflated her walk rate to 25.7% in her last five outings, most notably a single-game career high eight walks on Sunday against Indiana. Her previous career high was five walks, which she issued both Friday and Saturday afternoon against the Hoosiers.
The good news for Northwestern is the extra runners on base haven’t caused too much damage in terms of runs on the scoreboard. After all, Miller’s ERA over her last five games sits at a respectable 2.26, still well above her 1.34 season ERA. However, it’s a slippery slope if her inability to locate doesn’t get fixed. Renae Cunningham has been solid in relief of Miller. She pitched six innings allowing two earned runs in Friday afternoon’s victory. Cunningham also extinguished the fire on Sunday, picking up the game’s final out as Miller walked three batters in a row to load the bases with two outs in the seventh.
How Miller performs will determine how far the ‘Cats will go, not just in the Big Ten Tournament, but in the NCAA Tournament down the road. Without Miller at her best, the ‘Cats have looked vulnerable, but she undoubtedly has the potential to carry the ‘Cats to another Big Ten Tournament victory. She doesn’t need strikeouts to succeed, but needs to locate her changeup and drop ball to get batters to put soft contact in play. What version of Ashley Miller shows up in Iowa City will likely decide how the tournament goes for Northwestern.
Is Kansas Robinson slumping or is she just getting unlucky?
Before Northwestern’s home series against Michigan, Kansas Robinson’s batting average sat at .488. Currently hitting .409, it is no secret that Northwestern’s leadoff hitter has struggled to hit her way aboard over the last month of play. After all, in her first 27 games of the season she piled up 11 multi-hit games; in the 16 contests since, she has just three.
When most hitters begin to struggle, their strikeout rate typically balloons and their walk rate takes a dip. That simply hasn’t occurred with Robinson, who earned a First Team All-Big Ten nod. Before her slump started, Robinson walked 18.6% of the time and struck out 9.8% of the time. As her batting average has dipped in her last 16 games, Robinson is walking 15.9% of the time and striking out 9.5% of the time. The small disparity in walk rates is insignificant.
Yet looking at her batting average and on base percentage splits below, clearly something is going on.
Robinson’s BABIP indicates that she’s simply getting unlucky. Measuring her batting average on balls hit in play (i.e. not including home runs or strikeouts), her .288 BABIP in her last 16 games is lower than the .296 average Big Ten BABIP in conference play this season.
BABIP is often seen as a measure of luck, with low BABIP indicating balls hit in play are finding fielders rather than infield or outfield gaps. In her first 27 games of the season, Robinson’s .484 BABIP meant she was due for regression, but sinking below the Big Ten’s average BABIP in recent weeks for a hitter of Robinson’s quality shows just how unlucky she’s been.
Her first at bat Sunday is a great example of her poor luck lately as Robinson mashed a hard hit liner right into the glove of Indiana’s first baseman.
For starters, nothing looks wrong with that swing. That ball was hit so hard that by the time the broadcast cut to the high home angle the ball was already in Sarah Stone’s glove.
Having struck out only once in her last 39 plate appearances, it’s not worth worrying about Robinson’s game, but rather when her luck will turn around. Teams are still scared of her at the top of Northwestern’s order. Just look at how the Hoosiers intentionally walked Robinson in the sixth inning of a tied game Friday afternoon just for Kelsey Nader to go yard two pitches later. Although Robinson went hitless in her seven combined at bats on Friday and Sunday afternoon, a 3-for-4 day Saturday showed there’s nothing wrong with her swing or approach. With the Big Ten Tournament ahead, she’ll just need a little bit of luck on her side.
The home runs continue to fly
Earlier this season, this column hinted at the impressive power this Northwestern squad has shown — especially in Big Ten play. The updated graphic below shows which Wildcats hit the most home runs in conference play.
With three homers in her last four games, Raye, the reigning Big Ten Freshman of the Week, made a late push for a Kentucky Derby-style photo finish, tying Robinson with the most home runs in Big Ten play by a Wildcat this year. With a balanced attack headlined by five players with at least five homers in conference play, the ‘Cats jacked 40 blasts against Big Ten opposition — the most by a Northwestern squad in conference play since at least 2010.
More importantly, however, is how much Northwestern relies on the long ball to win games. In contests where the ‘Cats hit at least one ball over the fence, they’re 27-2. In games where they don’t hit a home run, the ‘Cats are 6-8.
With a potential rematch with Indiana on deck, Northwestern will like the matchup against the Hoosiers, who gave up the third-most home runs in conference play this season. The ‘Cats went deep four times in the series against Indiana, hitting all of their homers off of Brianna Copeland during her 17 innings of work last weekend.
Although Purdue and Nebraska were closer to the middle of the pack in giving up the long ball in conference play, Northwestern hit four homers in its three game series in West Lafayette and two home runs in its pair of games in Lincoln. Northwestern did not hit a home run in its 5-2 victory against No. 5 seed Minnesota in its sole matchup with the Gophers, who the ‘Cats could face in the semifinals.