Can the Cardiac ‘Cats make a run to the regionals? Let’s discuss it.
The month of April was one in which Northwestern set the world on fire.
No, really.
A rocky 2-4 start to the month followed by the ‘Cats winning eight of their final 10 games to close out regular season play probably characterizes what this season has been for NU. But when you look underneath the surface, the last 30 days of softball for Northwestern might have been the most important and best they’ve played this season.
What does this mean for the postseason? Let’s dive into it.
At the end of the regular season, Northwestern sits at 29-17-1, a step below its dominant stretch of three straight 35+ win seasons, but understandable when considering how loaded this conference truly is with the additions of Oregon, UCLA and Washington. An unlucky tiebreaker ruling squandered any hopes of a bye for the ‘Cats, as they were delegated the No. 5 seed and are set to take on host school Purdue in the first round of the Big Ten tournament.
The good news is Purdue happens to be the bottom seed in the tournament. The bad news? Every other team the ‘Cats are likely to face is top 25 in the nation.
Quick sidebar — let’s quickly establish the threshold NU has for this coming week of softball.
After a series upset over No. 8 UCLA, Northwestern made a huge jump in RPI rankings, going from 56 to 44 over the weekend. Not great, but much more advantageous for the ‘Cats headed into the postseason.
Now, for some quick math. Out of 64 teams that receive a bid for the NCAA Regionals, 32 conference winners will be seeded automatically. That leaves the other half up for grabs between teams in the coaches polls and those high in the RPI rankings.
When we walk down this route, we see that most of the rankings are dominated by SEC and ACC teams, with the Big Ten sprinkled in there quite a bit, and the Big 12 having some pull as well. Excluding the Big Ten, there are 5-8 probable conference winners ranging from teams in the SEC to teams in the CUSA, leaving NU on the bubble of at-large bidding.
If the regionals were to happen right now, Northwestern may very well be the last team in. However, a 4-11 overall record against ranked teams may not sit well with the committee, and may give them a reason to give the nod to an underdog like Omaha or North Florida.
Add all that up, and we get this: Northwestern needs a deep run in this conference tournament to put all doubt to rest.
A loss to Purdue and they’re for sure gone from contention. No need for discussion.
However, an upset over an Ohio State team that has wins over Georgia, Missouri and Nebraska may sway opinions quite a bit. From what we’ve seen this past weekend, that would thrust NU into the high 30s in RPI.
But let’s entertain what seems impossible: a win over top-seeded Oregon. A No. 3 national ranking headed into the tournament makes this matchup seem like a foregone conclusion.
Enter Lauren Boyd, whose four wins against ranked opponents may say otherwise. Boyd pitched a gem in the rubber match of the NU-UCLA series, going the distance and allowing three runs on four hits while striking out three. She’s had a number of quality starts against ranked opponents this season, and when the bats of Kaylie Avvisato and Bridget Donahey rise to the occasion, the ‘Cats are one of the toughest underdogs in the country.
A run to the Big Ten championship game would all but guarantee an at-large bid, with a semifinal appearance giving NU a good case for a lower-seeded regional berth. However, the task won’t be easy, especially with home-field advantage on the side of their first opponent. It’ll be interesting to see how the ‘Cats utilize their roster, especially their pitching staff.