Mother Nature is a Wildcats fan.
Three. That’s the magic number.
With just three wins the Northwestern Wildcats will claim the Big Ten regular season title. This team that many expected to take a step back after an exodus of talent has gleefully laughed in the face of regression. The “Young ‘Cats” are here, and they are three wins away from giving Northwestern its first Big Ten regular season three-peat since 1984-87.
With two wins and a canceled game (more on that later) over Nebraska, Northwestern (31-9, 17-2 B1G) heads into the last weekend of the season with the ability to control its own destiny. Here are five things to know about the trip to Lincoln that put the ‘Cats in prime position:
1. The softball game that never happened
Good teams win. Great teams dominate. Legendary teams have the power of the cosmos on their side.
Northwestern caught a huge break on Sunday thanks to torrential Nebraska weather that forced the second game in Saturday’s doubleheader to be delayed, then postponed to Sunday, and eventually canceled. The game was stopped in the top of the fourth inning while Northwestern trailed 5-0. For all we know, Northwestern absolutely could have stirred up a comeback with its remaining 12 outs, but on paper, the cancelation changed a potential Northwestern loss to a neutral outcome.
As a result of the wild Midwest weather, all of the stats from those first three innings are scrubbed. That Billie Andrews home run? Never happened. The Bella Bacon RBI single? Struck from the record. The Angela Zedak error? I’m not sure what you’re talking about.
This has a dramatic effect on the Big Ten title hunt. Had the Wildcats lost the final game of the series, they would have entered the final weekend of the season tied with Michigan. Now, with a half-game lead on the Wolverines, there is no risk of a shared regular season title. We will have a sole title holder. And with the non-result, should Northwestern sweep Indiana this upcoming weekend, that belt will come back to Evanston. If Northwestern can get some help from Ohio State, two wins could do the trick.
As much as Michigan fans were upset, Northwestern was due for some good weather luck after missing out on four games earlier in the year due to unfriendly forecasts, including three chances to gain big-game experience against ranked opponents. So as far as I’m concerned, Mother Nature was just abiding by the karmic nature of the universe.
2. Cami Henry has emerged as the most trusted second option
Last week in this column I questioned the pitching depth behind Ashley Miller. This week, that question was emphatically answered. At least for now, Cami Henry is looking like a viable second banana for Northwestern’s late-season push.
In the second (and final) game of the weekend, Cami Henry put together her best start of the season, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. After tossing a season-high 5.1 innings last weekend against Purdue, Henry bested that with a complete seven innings of one-run ball against the Huskers. She only struck out three batters but allowed just seven base-runners on the day and looked poised in a tough road environment as Northwestern cruised to an 8-1 win.
What jumped out most to me about Henry’s performance, for lack of a better way of putting it, was that she was straight-up spinning the rock. The grad student was hammering the strike zone unlike she has all season, tossing 72 of her 99 pitches for strikes, good for an impressive 72.7% rate. Nebraska’s lone run did come on a homer, which has been Henry’s most glaring weak spot, but the start should give ‘Cats fans lots of optimism.
3. Ashley Miller had a weekend to forget
Ashley Miller has been spectacular all season. This weekend marked a bit of a departure. In Friday’s matchup, the Cornhuskers got to Miller far more than we’ve become accustomed to. Nebraska’s seven hits and four walks both tied season-highs for Miller as Nebraska scored four runs on Northwestern’s ace to force her out of the game in the sixth inning with the game tied.
More concerning to me than a one-off tough start was Miller’s appearance in the forgotten game. It’s for the best that the statistics from this one get nixed because Miller recorded just two outs seeing Nebraska’s lineup for the second day in a row. She allowed three first-inning runs on four hits and a walk before Renae Cunningham entered in relief. Had these stats counted, her ERA would have jumped from 1.29 to 1.43. Miller’s body of work this season is ludicrously good, so I’m not too concerned, but you always want to be peaking heading into the postseason.
4. Kelsey Nader is your favorite player’s favorite player
You can write it in Sharpie — I’m an unabashed Kelsey Nader fan. Overall, this column probably hasn’t given Nader’s sophomore season enough attention because her style of play isn’t always the most highlight-inducing. But any way you slice it, Nader has been one of Northwestern’s four best players this season and perhaps its most consistent.
This weekend Nader had two hits in each of the two games that counted and another one in the vanished contest. She’s hitting .469 in conference play and leads the team in hits and stolen bases in that span. She brings a Steven Kwan-esque approach to the plate, rarely striking out, and can do it all. She bunts, bloops and sprays hits across the field and has even brought some extra muscle to her game this year, smashing five homers.
Not to mention, Nader is an elite fielder. In 106 chances, Nader has a sparkling 1.000 fielding percentage, making her one of just three players (and the only non-catcher) in the conference with over 100 chances and no errors.
5. A look at Indiana, Northwestern’s next opponent
The only thing standing between Northwestern and the regular season title and No. 1 seed in the conference tournament are the Hoosiers of Indiana. The neighboring-state foes enter the final weekend of play tied for sixth in the Big Ten standings with an 11-9 record in Big Ten play and 36-15 record overall.
On the offensive side, Indiana can sear the softball. The Hoosiers are tied for the lead in the conference with 61 homers and have the best batting average by a considerable margin. They don’t strike out much, draw lots of walks and make life hard for opposing defenses on the base paths as the only team in the conference with over 100 stolen bases (for comparison, Northwestern has 37). Emma Raye vs. Indiana runners will be must-see viewing.
Pitching-wise, Indiana is third in the conference in ERA and fourth in overall strikeouts. With all these impressive stats, it’s fair to ask how this team is just a hair above .500 in league play. The Hoosiers are a fairly average team on the road, and ever since conference play started, they have allowed both walks and home runs amongst the most in the conference. In recent weeks, pitchers Brianna Copeland and Sophie Kleiman have been more up-and-down. That said, this is one of the most talented rosters in the Big Ten and Northwestern will have its hands full as it tries to claim the title and preserve its home winning streak of over two years.
Weekly Awards
Weekend MVP: With only two games this week there are less obvious choices than usual, but let’s go with Emma Raye, (2-for-7, four RBIs, HR, HBP) whose three-run blast on Saturday broke the game open. Raye has started every game and is putting together a really solid first season.
Best Play: Kansas > Nebraska
Cool. Like. Kansas.@kansas_robinson pic.twitter.com/cZqjZSQtTQ
— Northwestern Softball (@NUSBcats) April 27, 2024
First-year shoutout: Both Izzy Cunnea and Ainsley Muno came up clutch with two-out singles in the sixth inning of the second game of the weekend, extending Northwestern’s 2-0 lead to a comfortable five-run cushion.
Ethan’s favorite NU Softball thing he saw this week: Unsurprisingly, the weather delay affected Nebraska’s baseball team too, who was hosting Iowa this weekend. I really hope that right next door at Bowlin Stadium that the softball teams were able to do the same thing. This looks like so much fun.
Rain delay content > #NCAABaseball x @ADagostinoTV x @HuskerBaseball pic.twitter.com/DvJhR5T1XL
— NCAA Baseball (@NCAABaseball) April 28, 2024
That’s a wrap on this week’s column. Massive weekend of softball ahead with Indiana at Northwestern and Ohio State at Michigan occurring simultaneously. If you’re in the Evanston area, try to get to the J this weekend to support the squad! Perhaps a Saturday doubleheader with a potential lacrosse Big Ten championship? Make that a tripleheader if you want to start your day with a little tailgating with the West Lot Pirates crowd. Can’t ask for much more than that. I’ll be back right here next week to analyze everything and preview the Big Ten Tournament.