The two best offenses in the Big Ten go head-to-head with a trip to the title game on the line.
It’s finally here. After nearly three months of waiting, the Big Ten Tournament truly begins. The Wildcats have had nearly two weeks off since toppling Michigan to claim the Big Ten’s regular season title, but now an even tougher road beckons. The top-ranked Wildcats need two victories to claim their second consecutive Big Ten Tournament title. Standing in their way: an extremely tough Johns Hopkins outfit that bested Michigan in overtime last week. Let’s dive into the keys to the game.
The tussle over turnovers
One of the big reasons the 12th-ranked Bluejays were able to take down No. 5 Michigan last week was because of turnovers. The Wolverines, who’ve committed an average of just 14.4 turnovers per game this season, gave the ball away a whopping 19 times against Johns Hopkins on Saturday. That’s not by accident; the Bluejays’ 10.3 caused turnovers per game easily leads the Big Ten and ranks top-15 nationally. Jordan Carr (46 caused turnovers) and Reagan O’Brien (30) lead the way for a stingy defense that has held seven opponents to 10 goals or fewer this year.
As for Northwestern, the Wildcats thrive on offensive consistency. Despite operating at a torrid pace, Northwestern only commits 14.9 turnovers per game, which ranks middle-of-the-pack nationally. But when Wildcat opponents throw a wrench into the gears of this high-powered machine — as Notre Dame and Colorado did with great success — Northwestern tends to struggle. The Wildcats are undoubtedly hoping this game resembles the first quarter of the last game between these two teams. Northwestern committed just three turnovers in the frame and scored six goals. Hey, speaking of goals…
The secondary scorers
Both of these teams have similarly built offenses. Each has two scorers which dominate the shooting and a brilliant table setter who’s top three in the Big Ten in assists (Erin Coykendall and Bailey Cheetham). However, Northwestern’s dynamic duo of Izzy Scane and Madison Taylor have been dominant offensively, whereas the Bluejays’ scoring duo of Ava Angello and Ashley Mackin has been merely very good. That explains the 14-9 result of the last contest between these two teams. Scane and Taylor combined for 11 goals, while Angello and Mackin combined for just three.
It’s pretty safe to assume that Hopkins will sell out to stop Scane and Taylor, who are both nearly unstoppable in the circle. That means that players like Dylan Amonte and Lindsey Frank, both of whom went scoreless in the first matchup, will have to be ready. On the Bluejays’ side of things, Campbell Case and Maeve Barker both have 40 or more points on the year, but combined for just five against the Wildcats. To match the flamethrower-wielding steamroller known as the Northwestern offense, Johns Hopkins is going to need a lot more than that.
The grappling for ground balls
I can’t believe this is the first time I’ve mentioned this stat in a keys to the game article this season, but here we are. Johns Hopkins is a spectacular ground ball team, picking up 18.5 per game — good for 16th in the nation. Against Michigan, the Bluejays picked up a whopping 22 ground balls. As if that total isn’t crazy enough, the Michigan game was the seventh time this season Hopkins has picked up 20 or more ground balls. Meanwhile, Northwestern has picked up its ground ball game as the season’s gone on — the Wildcats’ season average is 15.8, but Northwestern is averaging roughly 18 per contest in the last four games.
This Northwestern team has a knack for coming up with the hustle plays in big moments, and the ground ball game is no different. The Wildcats picked up 22 ground balls in four games this season, including the victory over then-No. 2 Maryland, a 19-10 runaway from Ohio State, and a 21-3 rout of Marquette. The fourth game? That would be the first Johns Hopkins contest, when Northwestern won the ground ball battle 22-16. That game is one of only three where the Bluejays have lost the draw control battle.
The Bluejays have four players — Carr, goalkeeper (and former Wildcat) Madison Doucette, Paris Colgain, and O’Brien — sitting top-10 in the Big Ten in ground balls. Northwestern meanwhile, has just one player on that list. Kendall Halpern has 32 to lead the Wildcats, but Colgain also has 32, and she’s 16 behind her team leader in Carr, who has 48. Yet in the last matchup between these two teams, that didn’t matter. O’Brien, Carr and Colgain combined for just five ground balls, while Molly Laliberty tallied six by herself. Halpern had four, and Alia Marshall and Izzy Scane also had two ground balls in the victory.
While all of these stats seem to tilt in Northwestern’s favor, the stats also heavily favored Michigan — and Hopkins had no problem proving that wrong. And against Northwestern, the Bluejays’ only real issue was an incredibly slow start. After nine minutes, Northwestern led 6-0, and while Hopkins outscored the Wildcats the rest of the way, it wasn’t enough to climb out of the hole. If the Bluejays can fly out of the gates in this rematch, they may have a chance to topple the top-ranked team in the land. Unless, of course, Scane and Taylor combine to outscore them again. We’ll find out this Thursday at noon central time.