Will the ‘Cats face familiar foes in the NCAA tournament?
As No. 3 Northwestern lacrosse (16–2, 8–0 B1G) adds the 2025 Big Ten tournament championship to the trophy case, the NCAA tournament beckons. All but guaranteed a top-three seed, the ‘Cats should receive a first-round bye. Another Final Four run seems highly probable, but who stands in their way? Selection Sunday is Sunday night, so here are a few predictions on who the ‘Cats may face in and after the second round, as well as some dark horses for the whole tournament.
SECOND ROUND
1. No. 11 Michigan (12-6, 5-3 B1G)
The most likely second–round matchup for the ‘Cats is a rematch against the Wolverines, with Michigan appearing in Northwestern’s region in the past five USA Lacrosse Magazine bracketologies. Michigan is coming off just missing the finals of the Big Ten Tournament. After a 20–9 victory over No. 25 USC, Michigan lost to No. 7 Maryland 13–10 in the semifinals, a game where 2025 Big Ten Goalie of the Year Erin O’Grady was not playing.
Realistically, the ‘Cats could not ask for a better second–round matchup as they beat the Wolverines 15–6 in Evanston on April 17. Clearly, the ‘Cats play better on home turf. During the Big Ten Tournament, the ‘Cats were only up two net goals the entire weekend. Against those same opponents at home during the regular season, Northwestern won by a combined 25 goals.
Should Northwestern host Michigan again, keep an eye on senior attackers Jill Smith (54 goals, 68 draw controls) and Kaylee Dyer (43 goals, 30 assists) to go claw–for–claw with Northwestern’s defense.
2. No. 14 Duke (12-5, 6-3 ACC)
Popcorn will fly should Duke and Michigan face off in the first round, a matchup projected by both USA Lacrosse Magazine and Inside Lacrosse’s most recent bracketologies. Currently No. 4 in the ACC, the Blue Devils have victories over Notre Dame, No. 16 Clemson and No. 17 Brown. Duke won six of its last seven regular-season games with a final loss to No. 1 North Carolina.
True, the Blue Devils are in a nightmare of their own making after a 7–15 loss to Clemson in the ACC quarterfinals. Nonetheless, this team sports serious firepower. Attackers senior Carly Bernstein, sophomore Bella Goodwin and graduate Callie Hem have combined for 135 goals this season.
Luckily for the ‘Cats, none of these three are particularly interested in sharing (on average, they each have less than an assist per game). A defensive focus on those attackers should spell victory for Northwestern.
QUARTERFINAL
1. No. 6 Maryland (14-5, 7-1 B1G)
Yes, the Wildcats may have to overcome the Terrapins one last time to earn a semifinal spot. If its No. 6 ranking holds for NCAA tournament seeding, Maryland would fall in the same quadrant as the No. 3 seed – Northwestern. Could the third time be the charm for the Terrapins?
The last matchup was an instant classic between perennial rivals for the Big Ten title. Down four nearly the whole game, the ‘Cats rallied to steal the title with 0:15 to play. Northwestern’s 8–7 victory was arguably one of the most exciting games played in the NCAA this season.
It would be unnecessary to recall the Big Ten Championship if the ‘Cats had dominated Maryland like they had a few weeks back. A 12-point margin shrank to one when Northwestern left Evanston for College Park, MD. Northwestern fans might be able to breathe more easily, knowing that another showdown between the teams would come with home–field advantage.
2. No. 12 University of Pennsylvania (10-6, 5–2 Ivy League)
Friday night was brutal for UPenn, which lost 10–11 to No. 7 Yale in the Ivy League Tournament semifinals. Pennsylvania was up or drawing from 4:57 in the first quarter to 0:56 in the fourth. Although UPenn’s current ranking may be in peril, its chances for an at–large bid are very much alive. USA Lacrosse Magazine’s most recent bracketology has the Quakers in the same region as Maryland.
The Quakers own wins against No. 15 Loyola, Maryland, Princeton and Brown, and two of those were away games. They have a knack for hanging on in adverse conditions, and those are the only conditions that await the Keystone State in the tournament.
UPenn drags teams into even fights. It has earned 10 wins despite only scoring 199 goals all season. That is 39 fewer goals than No. 5 Princeton in the same number of games…and the Quakers beat the Tigers 15–12 on April 16. That said, the Quakers could be a trap game for the Wildcats
DARK HORSES
1. No. 13 James Madison (13-4, 6-0 AAC)
Maddie Epke is a one-woman show in Harrisonburg, VA. She leads her team in goals with 57 and is second in assists with 20. In the midfield, she has racked up 217 draw controls. For context, Sam Smith leads NU’s dominant draw circle with 153.
James Madison beat the No. 5 Florida Gators in a 17–16 thriller on March 1. Since then, the Dukes have not managed any ranked wins. They have, however, won every unranked game and made it to the AAC Championship game undefeated in conference.
The Dukes have already lost a game to the Tar Heels. Have any other competitors avoided that fate? No. Their only other losses came to Maryland, No. 9 Virginia and No. 8 Johns Hopkins — teams that are locks for the tournament themselves.
2. No. 15 Loyola (13-5, 9-0 Patriot League)
Loyola’s biggest case for a deep tournament run is the impressiveness of its losses. Aside from a 21–7 loss to No. 2 Boston College in Week 1, the Greyhounds have played like dogs even in defeat. Loyola averages an 11–14 scoreline against Princeton, Florida, UPenn and No. 18 Syracuse.
Then, throw in a couple of wins against No. 8 Johns Hopkins and No. 21 Navy. The Greyhounds are not afraid of bigger dogs — they know how sharp their teeth are. Senior midfielder Chase Boyle leads the pack from the front to the back of the field. She has scored 71 goals, caused 18 turnovers and won 197 draw controls this season. Senior attacker Georgia Latch is a highly capable second fiddle, scoring 49 goals and 64 assists of her own.
3. No. 20 Stony Brook (14-4, 8-0 CAA)
Stony Brook’s advantage lies in its own third of the field. The Seawolves — never mind what wolves are doing at sea — lay claim to the sixth–best scoring defense in the nation at 8.72 goals allowed per game. This is ahead of defensive stalwarts like Clemson, Michigan and even Florida.
Senior defender Avery Hines leads this effort with a whopping 61 caused turnovers at 3.39 per game. Both marks are good enough for the No. 2 spot in the NCAA. Sophomore midfielder Isabella Caporuscio looks to be Hines’ successor with 32 caused turnovers (not to mention 44 goals and 19 assists).
To all except No. 5 Princeton, Stony Brook has not lost by more than a single point. Meanwhile, the team has climbed to become the 11th highest scoring offense in the NCAA at 15.39 goals per game. Never heard of the Seawolves? Prediction: two rounds into the tournament, they will be on everyone’s watch list.
Selection Sunday begins on May 4 at 8 p.m. CDT.