From surrendering three runs to 27, this was an inconsistent week for the ‘Cats
While the college baseball season only lasts a few short months, it certainly feels as though we’re entering the dog days of the season. Conference play is exactly halfway through, and Northwestern, after a brilliant win in game one against Michigan State, has since come back to Earth. Following a sixth-inning collapse in game two that resulted in a run-rule defeat and a pitcher’s duel that went the way of the Spartans in game three, momentum was not with Head Coach Ben Greenspan’s team.
While your ace isn’t going to go six innings in a midweek matchup due in part to resting protocol, arm management and readiness for the more important conference slate, the loss to Northern Illinois was disheartening nonetheless. Northern Illinois has been known to pile on double-digit scores in upsets against high-major programs in other sports, but alas, I doubt that Northwestern will fight back like Notre Dame to win a chip this season.
As the ‘Cats fight for a spot in the Big Ten Tournament, they’ve constantly ridden the .500 line. This week’s tale had them falling back under once again. Why did this week go the way that it did? How were they able to win game one? Where did the offense go? And who were the pitchers that had us looking at 0-0 games for so many innings? It seems time to dive in (sadly, this pun was intended, I’m just not funny) to this week’s Diamond Deep Dive.
What went right: Christian Forniss matches Dzierwa pitch-for-pitch
This performance from the first-year was as gutsy as they come. Forniss made his first collegiate start Saturday against the Spartans and was given the tall task of pitching opposite Joseph Dzierwa, a junior with a top-five ERA in the Big Ten and a member of the All-Big Ten Second Team last season. Through the first five innings of the game, Forniss held the Spartans hitless with just 67 pitches.
Keep in mind that this was the very same pitcher who couldn’t record an out against Long Beach State on opening day while allowing three runs. The growth has been fantastic for fans to see as the season has gone on, and with a staff that’s looking for younger options next season with a pitching staff full of grad transfers, Forniss may be that formidable threat in purple going forward.
Finding solutions to limit the opposing offense has been a struggle for the ‘Cats at times this season, but with Forniss looking as good as ever, I’d be shocked if he wasn’t on the mound at some point this weekend in Lincoln. While it was announced that RHP Sam Hliboki would be starting game one with RHP Matthew Kouser going in game two, game three is still to be determined. Could Forniss be the one that Greenspan goes to once again?
What went right: Defensive delight
There are several factors that have made the ‘Cats a defensive juggernaut this season, and it’s reflected in many aspects of their game. On the one hand, there’s the traditional eye test. One can look at this team play and see the moves that allow them to succeed on the defensive side of the ball, whether that’s athletic pitchers making plays, Jack Lausch’s diving catches in the outfield or Owen McElfatrick’s lasers across the diamond. Watching these games day in and day out, it’s simply challenging to be nervous whenever you see a ball slapped into play. That fact, while seemingly ordinary, can not be said for so many teams at different levels of a challenging sport.
I will preface the second part of this statement with the fact that errors are a deeply flawed statistic that often punish defenders with more range. Northwestern’s fielding percentage is one of the best anywhere in college baseball. This is a fact that has carried over from last season as well, where they were a top-10 team nationally in the figure. This year, they remain top 20 while holding the third-best mark in the Big Ten.
Finally, the defense is reflected in Northwestern’s pitching staff. Fielding-Independent Pitching (FIP) is a statistic that calculates an ERA-like number solely from a pitcher’s rate of allowing the three true outcomes: home runs, walks and strikeouts. It’s designed to remove the defense and luck from the balls put into play. Northwestern pitchers consistently rank as having some of the greatest differences between their ERA and FIP numbers. Specifically, their FIP metrics are much higher than their ERA numbers. This implies that defense often aids Northwestern pitchers significantly more when compared with other Big Ten arms.
Of the 59 qualified Big Ten pitchers per Fangraphs, Northwestern has four pitchers in the bottom 20 in the league in ERA-FIP, showing the greatest discrepancies between the two stats. While one could tout this as meaning that the pitching staff is due for regression, I prefer to look at this through the impact of Northwestern’s defense and its ability to aid the team in run reduction. I couldn’t care less if the ‘Cats deny an opposing run or score one of their own, as they will all contribute to the same score in the end.
What went wrong: Offensive inconsistency
Offense in baseball is a tricky thing, especially in a game where the best hitters fail more often than they succeed. This often puts teams like the ‘Cats in situations such as the one they encountered in East Lansing. 11 runs in game one, only to combine for one run across games two and three. Especially with the offensive volatility at the college level, this is a number that the ‘Cats can not afford to see if they’re looking to be in West Lafayette come tournament time.
These numbers are not the fault of any one player, either. No one landed more than a single hit in the 10-0 loss in game two. The same happened in game three, with the exception of McElfatrick. This is not meant to diminish Dzierwa’s dominance or the excellent performance from Michigan State’s Nolan Higgins. However, this has started to become a trend dating back to the Iowa series. Northwestern will clobber a pitcher who is having a rough outing, but struggles against some of the league’s best. The ‘Cats have simply looked outmatched at times this season and they’ll need to find ways to make those in-game adjustments against elite draft-caliber arms, especially as the lineup turns around for the pivotal third time through the order.
What went wrong: Pitch counts
I’ve talked before about the lack of depth that has often been a problem for the ‘Cats in later innings. Although many of these pitchers have shown moments of greatness and high ceilings, a key must also be stretching pitchers out longer. The walks have been a part of this, but aside from whether or not the player reaches base, the number of pitches thrown alone has often proved troublesome. While Forniss kept his pitch count brief through five and first-year Jack Grunkemeyer tossed an impressive 2.2 innings in 22 pitches Sunday, this tends to be an exception, not a regularity.
Conversely, it took Hliboki 118 pitches to make it through 6.1 innings. Admittedly, I’m a bit unsure about how to feel about this one. On one hand, I’m impressed at the stamina that the former Vanderbilt arm has after primarily coming out of the bullpen both in his time with the Commodores and for the early part of this season in purple. However, I wonder if he could be stretched out to seven or eight innings, even, under the same pitch count. This is, of course, while managing arm health and strength, but could prove to be a major innings-eater who can protect the ‘Cats staff in these weekend series.
This is not simply an issue for Hliboki, either, as the ‘Cats can find ways to be more efficient as a staff overall. Blake MacMillan took 29 pitches to close out the seventh in game one against the Spartans and didn’t re-enter in the eighth. On the whole, this is an area for improvement for the ‘Cats that could allow for greater inning coverage as the season continues.
With Northwestern in Lincoln next week, there will be plenty to recap between the ‘Cats and the Cornhuskers. I’ll go over what the team had in store during next week’s Diamond Deep Dive.