In its quest for the Big Ten tournament, these are the key numbers
After experiencing the golden sombrero of conference series losses, Northwestern has truly been thrust into a must-win situation this weekend. The team has three games against the last-place Ohio State Buckeyes, and, with the ‘Cats in a tie for the last spot remaining in the Big Ten tournament, a sweep would go a long way. This is compounded by the final series of the year next weekend, when the ‘Cats are on the road against UCLA, who is currently second in the conference.
Entering the series against Ohio State, there are five key numbers for Northwestern if it’s going to right the ship into the harbor that is the Big Ten tournament.
Christian Forniss: Innings Pitched
The first-year has gone from a pitcher who was battling for time on the bump to one of the most integral arms down the stretch. Since being added to the rotation against Michigan State, Forniss has allowed seven runs across 16.2 innings. The biggest issue for Forniss has been the third time through the order. Against Michigan State, for example, Forniss was dynamite through five innings but began to struggle when the lineup turned around and the batters he faced had two chances to see his stuff.
In some outings, this has caused head coach Ben Greenspan to limit Forniss to three and 3.2 innings pitched, respectively. The pair of Forniss and Kouser has also become significant, with the two often sharing the bulk of innings in a given game, occasionally with first-year Jack Grunkemeyer taking a share of the innings, as was the case last weekend. While this strategy has largely worked well for Greenspan, a world where Forniss is able to consistently go six or seven innings could have an immense impact on the pitching management for Greenspan. This could create a situation where Kouser or Crawford Wade could be used once again as a third starter alongside Forniss and graduate student Sam Hliboki.
Entire Pitching Staff: HR/9
Greenspan’s staff had a nice bounce back series in this department, aided by Purdue’s emphasis on small ball. The ‘Cats held the Boilermakers to just one home run across all three games. Ohio State is no different. In fact, both teams are tied with 19 long balls in conference play. For a ‘Cats team that has given up the second-most home runs to Big Ten teams this season, the matchup with Ohio State marks a pivotal turning point. Can this team continue to keep the ball on the ground against teams that opt for more small ball strategies?
If the answer ends up being yes, it’s a huge signifier as Northwestern travels to UCLA next weekend, where it’ll take on some sluggers that are likely future big leaguers. If there’s a time to sure things up down the stretch, it’s this series. The turnaround has already begun, the question remains whether or not it will be sustained.
Preston Knott: On-Base Percentage
Knott was firmly entrenched in the leadoff spot for a large part of the year, and for good reason. He came off of a breakout first campaign in Evanston where he got on base at a .406 clip, the type of high production that you look for out of the first man up in an inning. As the season has gone on, Knott has largely lost that role as a leadoff hitter and has slid further down in the lineup.
This is due in some part to his lack of patience at the dish. The senior has walked just once in his last 10 games, a stark contrast from his early season production of 22 free passes in 25 games. It’s clear that the skills are there for Knott, who consistently boasts high on-base numbers. The turnaround may have already begun as well, with Knott getting a hit in each of the team’s three games against Purdue. The left fielder will look to continue a similar level of production as the lights begin to shine the most.
Blake MacMillan: K/BB Ratio
The bullpen ace all season for ‘Cats fans, MacMillan has recently had some rocky outings while splitting his time in the bullpen and the rotation. After a rocky start in game one against Washington, MacMillan has delivered two respectable performances against Butler and Purdue. The biggest key, however, that correlates to the success or lack thereof in a Blake MacMillan outing? The free passes.
In games where MacMillan walks more batters than he strikes out, his ERA is 13.50 across 8 innings. When he Ks more hitters than he walks in an outing, his ERA plummets to 2.70 across 27.1 innings. When MacMillan is able to consistently locate his pitches and keep his command in check over long outings, he continues to be the sparkplug that the ‘Cats rely on to shut down opponents in the later innings of a contest. Northwestern will need his pitches to find the zone more consistently if the team is going to make any sort of run down the stretch.
Trent Liolios: Home Runs
Simply put, when the Wildcats’ new home run king sends one over the fence, the team usually wins. Specifically, the Wildcats are 9-3 when Liolios homers this season. Since breaking through Bob Brucato’s decades-old record, however, Liolios failed to get a hit in the team’s three games in West Lafayette. While the junior has been a key bat time and time again, especially in the late innings, it’s clear that the offense is missing a huge source of power when Liolios has a rough game.
With records and milestones no longer a concern, look for Liolios to get back on track through longer counts. He is often at his best while working a walk or tiring out a pitcher before knocking a single. After a series where NU’s bats were challenged in many ways, the simple points of execution may be the best way to recapture some magic in that swing. There’s no looming record anymore. No pressure to make history. Simply a time for players like Liolios to put their best swing on the ball.
And just like that, one of the final Diamond Deep Dives of the year has come and gone. For those interested in catching games this weekend, game one will be at Wrigley Field with live coverage from Inside NU. The following two will be back in Evanston as the ‘Cats look to take down the Ohio State Buckeyes.