10 games left to make their mark
Dreadful. Triumphant. Rocked. Rocking.
Charles Dickens once said, “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” I was supposed to read that book for English class in the 10th grade. But then I switched classes, so I never did. Considering the series that I just watched against Washington, though, I’m going to go ahead and assume that this was the basis for his literature.
After two run-rule losses against the now fifth-place Washington Huskies, the ‘Cats could see their chances at a Big Ten tournament appearance slipping away before their very eyes. However, head coach Ben Greenspan also saved the best for last when it came to pitching, ensuring that Sunday’s final game included first-year Matthew Kouser, graduate transfer Crawford Wade and first-year Christian Forniss, who has been heating up as of late.
Now, with 10 games left to play, nine of them against conference opponents, Northwestern sits at 9-12, in a four-way tie for 10th place in the Big Ten. With only 12 teams qualifying for the conference tournament in Omaha, it’s time for the ‘Cats to buckle down if they hope to be competing in the city that brought us the likes of the Chicago Cubs ownership and a statue of Chef Boyardee.
While Northwestern’s shot at the big dance is null, barring a miracle win in the Big Ten tournament, this is still a team that is improving and being in Omaha in this smaller capacity, the “Little Dance” if you will, would be an accomplishment. But what do they need to do in order to get there.
Scouting the schedule
Northwestern has three series left, two away at Purdue and UCLA, as well as a home series against Ohio State. The latter notably includes a game at Wrigley Field on May 9. While there is a midweek matchup with Valparaiso mixed in, this will be largely uneventful for the purpose of Northwestern’s postseason opportunity, as they are almost assuredly out of contention for an at-large bid. That being said, I am going to leave out the Valparaiso scouting in this one in favor of the conference opponents. First up?
Purdue (26-18, 7-14 B1G)
The Boilermakers are currently one of the four Big Ten teams with a worse record in conference play, but with the series being on the road for the Wildcats, it’s likely to be a competitive one.
The biggest challenge for Northwestern pitching in this one is going to be limited traffic on the base paths. NU pitchers have the second-highest WHIP in the league and are one of only two teams whose WHIP is over 2.00.
On the contrary, Purdue has excelled in that same sense all season long, good for an OBP of .417, the fourth-best mark in the conference. While this Purdue team might not be full of prolific home run threats, they are pesky, with the ability to get on base. Don’t be surprised if they target the run game either, as they’re tied for third in the Big Ten in stolen bases this season. It’ll be up to Bennett Markinson to stay alert with the Boilermakers on the basepaths.
NU’s power likely gives them the edge over Purdue offensively, however, with Northwestern’s hitting getting better as conference play continues. The key will be diversifying the hit quality and patience at the plate, looking to crowd the basepaths as Purdue does before using that slugging to get a leg up and more effectively drive runners in.
Ohio State (11-30, 3-18 B1G)
If Northwestern wants to be a threat in the Big Ten, they’ll need a sweep against Ohio State at home, plain and simple. The Buckeyes have had a disappointing season, being swept in over half of their Big Ten series. Northwestern will look to continue that trend.
The biggest threat standing in the way of a sweep from my perspective is Ohio State outdueling the ‘Cats on a day where the bats go quiet. The most likely person to accomplish this feat for the Buckeyes is likely freshman Gavin Kuzniewski, who dons a 6.04 ERA. On the surface, this doesn’t seem like an imposing arm. My concern is the development and teams he’s performed against.
The freshman has been limited to 41.0 innings this season, but has been stretched out recently. While the early season saw him tossing 3.0 innings in a lot of cases, he’s begun to consistently touch 4.2 and 5.0 with room to grow. He’s also performed his best against some of the best teams, going two scoreless against USC and 4.2 innings of three-run ball against Oregon, who’s also likely dancing.
He’s also one of the younger members of his class, still just 18 years old. This is without mentioning that he threw 92 mph in a showcase just after he turned 16. If he’s managing to see this production against legitimate tournament threats at this age, there has to be a level of concern in the Wildcats’ dugout as he continues to get better.
UCLA (33-11, 16-5 B1G)
When it comes to Omaha, UCLA is no stranger. While it’s been over 10 years, head coach John Savage has three Men’s College World Series appearances under his belt with the Bruins. They’re currently projected for an at-large bid by almost every metric and stand second in the Big Ten standings. To say they’re a formidable threat would be an understatement. However, the strength of this Northwestern team is its inability to be swept. Even against Iowa, a tournament team and the top-ranked Big Ten foe, the ‘Cats scraped out a gritty game three win.
I believe that Northwestern’s goal against UCLA should be a series win, which sounds lofty, but they’ve taken a game off of better teams, albeit at home, already this season. Avoiding a sweep and taking a game would make for a perfectly suitable Los Angeles trip as well, but a big win during their last regular-season game of the year would be an incredible tone-setter for a rebuilding team.
Against UCLA, they have a prime opportunity to do the same when UCLA’s Ian May takes the mound. He started game one of UCLA’s prior series, but has pitched in games one and two during the season. The key with May is his HR/9 of 1.70, which is good for fifth-worst in the conference. With a Northwestern team that has been reliant, to a fault at times, on the home run ball this season, this is a perfect opportunity to capitalize.
Additionally, the UCLA lineup is very left-handed heavy. Among their four hitters with an OPS north of .900, three stand in the left-handed batter’s box. This fairs well for Northwestern, who have three southpaws that have seen significant action on the field as of late. Wade could deliver an excellent start, as could Forniss. Additionally, Blake MacMillan is a lefty who may come out of the ‘pen, or start as he did against Washington. Though due to MacMillan’s higher arm slot and tendency to work more up and down with movement as opposed to side-to-side, I’m not sure he’ll have the same stark splits that other pitchers might. This isn’t a bad thing necessarily, as he may be more reliable for multiple innings against a wide array of batters, as he’s gone for much of the year.
Northwestern has its hands full this month, but don’t fret, because I will return with more analysis in a few final diamond deep dives to end the season. Until then, I’ll hand the ball back over to the pros in West Lafayette.