The Chicago Blackhawks draft position is set: They landed the No. 3 pick during Monday night’s NHL draft lottery.
The pick itself is more of a mystery.
Defenseman Matthew Schaefer of the Ontario Hockey League’s Erie Otters ranks No. 1 on NHL Central Scouting’s list of North American skaters, and he’s the consensus projected top pick. But three or four other prospects also are legitimate contenders.
The Hawks had a 13.5% chance of winning the No. 1 pick after finishing with the league’s second-worst record (25-46-11), and they couldn’t drop lower than fourth because of lottery rules.
The last-place San Jose Sharks (20-50-12) had the best odds of winning the top pick at 25.5%, but the lottery balls lined up for the New York Islanders, who won the first of two draws to earn the No. 1 pick.
The Islanders had just the 10th-best odds at 3.5% to win the first draw. As lottery balls popped up one by one during a live broadcast — 7, 11, 12 — the Hawks needed the fourth and final ball to be marked 9 or 14. Instead, the 13 ball rose up the chute for the Islanders.
The second draw also defied the odds, as the Utah Hockey Club — which entered the evening with the third-worst chances among the 16 lottery teams — won with a combination of 1-5-12-3. The Hawks needed 1-5-10-12 to secure the No. 2 pick.
Utah received the No. 4 pick after moving up the maximum 10 spots. The Sharks and Hawks then were slotted into the second and third picks, respectively.
The lottery, broadcast from NHL Network’s studio in Secaucus, N.J., set the order for the first 16 picks. The draft takes place June 27 and 28 at the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles.
If there was a year when dropping out of the top two wouldn’t be a downer for the second-worst team, it might be this year. There’s no generational type such as Connor Bedard or Macklin Celebrini on a tier by himself.
Central Scouting director Dan Marr said this year’s draft is more “traditional” than recent years, with the top-ranked prospect, Schaefer, having only a slight edge on other contenders.
“There’s three or four players in the mix that you’ll be very happy to get any one of them,” Marr said. “Schaefer’s the real deal. Schaefer is the best defenseman in the draft class by a country mile. (He) plays a style that’s going to translate well to the NHL.”
In addition to Schaefer, Marr name-checked center Michael Misa of the OHL’s Saginaw Spirit and Boston College center James Hagens as potential top picks, and he called winger Porter Martone of the OHL’s Brampton Steelheads a top-four pick.
“Hagens and Misa, whoever’s picking No. 1, if they take (either of) them No. 1, I don’t think anybody’s going to bat an eye,” Marr said before the lottery.
Anton Frondell, a forward for Djurgården in Sweden’s second division, overtook teammate Victor Eklund for the top spot in the final international rankings, so he’s a strong contender as well.
Marr discussed several of the top prospects with the Tribune.
1. Matthew Schaefer, defenseman
He broke his collarbone while playing for Canada in the World Junior Championship in late December but still posted seven goals and 15 assists — 1.29 points per game — in 17 games for Erie.
“He’s 17 years old, so he’s got a lot to learn about how to play the game and how to have success at the next level,” Marr said. “But he has all the tools and the attributes to where he’s a very appealing prospect.”
Though Schaefer has been compared to the Colorado Avalanche’s Cale Makar, “for us, he’s more along the lines of Zach Werenski,” Marr said. “They’re both puck carriers, they’re both guys that can dominate the play when they have the puck on their stick, impact the play. Smart, skilled, a pretty complete package.
“Another (comp) is Noah Dobson. … These are guys, they go right into the NHL, they play big minutes, big situations, and they contribute.”
2. Michael Misa, forward
Misa’s 134 points (62 goals) last season tied John Tavares and trailed only Hawks great Patrick Kane (145) in OHL history. He was granted “exceptional player” status to enter the OHL early in 2022 and served as the Spirit’s captain last season. He also helped them win the 2023-24 Memorial Cup.
“When we look at Misa, we’re saying the career that he’s going to have, the type of player that he is, the character, the whole thing, he’s in the category with Steven Stamkos and Sebastian Aho,” Marr said. “Misa is a little bit more cerebral (than Hagens), but the quickness that he executes the play, it’s very impressive. He can see the ice and execute the play.
“He’s doing it at an NHL level now. But he’s not playing with NHL players, so you’re not always seeing that finished product out of it.”
3. James Hagens, forward
Hagens has a nice resume already, winning gold with the U.S. (along with Hawks prospect Oliver Moore) at this year’s World Juniors. His 187 career points rank fifth in U.S. National Team Development Program history.
“He plays a pro game — right now,” Marr said. “But he’s going to be coming into the league like a Logan Cooley or Clayton Keller. That’s not the trajectory that he’s on. He’s just that gifted offensive player.
“He sees the ice where he automatically is in the right place at the right time. He might be the best player of being in the right place at the right time. But by the time the puck is on stick, he already knows what he’s going to do — and it’s not on his stick long.
“But if he’s got the chance, he knows how to get open, get to the net, and he’s got a finishing touch.”
4. Porter Martone, forward
He has good size for a winger at 6-foot-2¾ and 208 pounds. Martone recorded 37 goals and 61 assists in 57 games last season for Brampton.
“He views himself as a Matthew Tkachuk,” Marr said, “but we think he’s a little bit more similar to Brady (Tkachuk) and Mark Stone, just because he’s the best player taking the puck to the net and scoring this year. He’s just that power forward.
“If (a team needs) that Tkachuck-type guy, they’re going to lean toward Martone if they’ve already got some more skilled, high-IQ-type players in their lineup. … But I’m not going to short-change Porter Martone on his skills or his (hockey) sense. He’s a very motivated guy. He just doesn’t have the speed and quickness that these other two (Hagens and Misa) have right now.”