The Chicago Bears have won four games in a row for the first time in seven years.
No two weeks in the NFL are alike. Here’s a look at the numbers and advanced metrics that stood out after the Bears’ 26-14 win over the New Orleans Saints on Sunday — plus a look ahead to this week’s opponent, the Baltimore Ravens.
What do the numbers say about a rushing revival?
The Bears rushing attack looks completely different than it did three weeks ago. Per NFL Next Gen Stats, rookie Kyle Monangai spent the second-least amount of time behind the line of scrimmage out of all NFL running backs with at least 10 carries in Week 7. Monangai averaged just 2.41 seconds behind the line of scrimmage when he carried the football.
He was hitting holes quickly.
“You saw how hard he runs,” left tackle Theo Benedet said. “That just fires up your whole team. He’s going to get you that extra 4, 5 yards on every run. That’s really rewarding as an O-lineman.”
When looking at Next Gen Stats’ “efficiency” rating, Monangai and D’Andre Swift were both among the five most efficient backs in the league in Week 7. This metric takes total yards traveled (including laterally) and divides it by yards gained. The lower the number, the more north-south a runner goes.
Monangai’s 2.69 efficiency rating ranked third behind the Cincinnati Bengals’ Chase Brown (2.27) and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Jaylen Warren (2.48), and Swift was fifth at 2.71.
For Swift, that means two of his three most efficient performances as a Bear came in the last two games. Since he joined the Bears before the 2024 season, his efficiency rating has been below 3.0 only three times: Sunday versus the Saints, Week 6 against the Washington Commanders (2.76) and last year in Week 8 against the Commanders (2.77).
Coach Ben Johnson talked in the offseason about how he values expected points added as a metric for success. EPA takes into account the down and distance, the distance to the end zone and historical data, then measures how each play affected the likelihood of scoring points. Some plays are positive, some are negative.
Swift’s rushing EPA was negative in each of the first four games, per NFL Pro. That changed in Week 6 at Washington and on Sunday against the Saints. Swift’s rushing EPA was plus-5.8 against the Commanders and plus-4.5 against the Saints. He had five runs of 10-plus yards in each game.
Interestingly, neither of those defenses seemed to respect the Bears rushing attack. Per NFL Pro, Swift faced zero stacked boxes (eight or more defenders in the box) against the Commanders. The Saints stacked the box just 5.3% of the time against Swift. In the three previous games, Bears opponents were stacking defenders against Swift about 25% of the time.
That feels likely to change, given the recent rushing success.
Takeaway time
The Bears lead the NFL with 16 takeaways. The Jacksonville Jaguars are next with 14. The Bears have 11 interceptions and five fumble recoveries.
For context, the Bears had 11 interceptions all of last season, when they totaled 24 takeaways in 17 games. The 2023 Bears led the NFL with 22 interceptions. This year’s team is already halfway to that total. Five NFL teams finished with fewer than 16 takeaways in the 2024 season
Safety Kevin Byard III is tied for the NFL lead with four interceptions with Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd. Bears linebacker Tremaine Edmunds is right behind them with three. Byard’s 33 interceptions since he entered the league in 2016 are the most by any player during that span.
This is the sixth time in 10 seasons Byard has totaled at least four interceptions but the first since 2022 with the Tennessee Titans.
The Bears have 15 takeaways over the last four games. The last time they did that in a single season was Weeks 7-10 in 2011. It’s the most takeaways over a four-game span by any NFL team since the Denver Broncos had 15 from Weeks 8-12 in 2023.
What’s wrong with the Ravens?
Well, Lamar Jackson being hurt is No. 1. Jackson is likely to return this week. So is former Bears linebacker Roquan Smith. Baltimore is in desperate need of both of their services.
Sunday’s game will be a battle between teams that couldn’t be further apart in the turnover department. In addition to their league-high 16 takeaways, the Bears lead the league with a plus-11 turnover margin. The Ravens have just three takeaways in six games and are minus-7 in turnover margin.
Jackson’s return has the chance to make a huge difference. Six of the offense’s 10 turnovers happened in the last two games without Jackson, who has thrown only one of the team’s five interceptions.
But the 1-5 Ravens aren’t likely to turn this around thanks to Jackson alone. The defense has to start finding answers. It has been one of the league’s absolute worst.
Baltimore is allowing 134.3 rushing yards per game (ranked 26th). In terms of EPA per rush, the Ravens are tied for last at plus-0.09. It’s a dramatic change for Baltimore, which led the league in 2024 in rushing defense (80.1 yards per game) and was second in rushing EPA (minus-0.16). This could be a prime spot for the Bears to continue their newfound rushing success.
The Ravens aren’t much better against the pass. They rank third from the bottom in EPA per pass at plus-0.12, ahead of only the Miami Dolphins and the Bengals. Their 3.4% sack rate is ahead of only the Jaguars’ 2.9%.
Playoffs? Draft stock?
It’s far too early to talk about the playoffs. The Bears have won four games in a row, but teams like the Las Vegas Raiders and the Saints aren’t exactly considered the class of the NFL.
If the season had ended after Week 7, the Bears would be just outside the NFC playoff picture at No. 8. The 5-2 Rams are ahead of them as the No. 7 seed and final team in the playoffs. Next Gen Stats gives the Bears a 26% chance of making the postseason.
On the flip side, if you’re already thinking about next year, the Bears currently would have the No. 18 draft pick, per Tankathon. The last time the Bears picked 18th, they selected wide receiver Willie Gault in 1983.
The Bears haven’t picked outside the top 10 in the first round since they took Justin Fields with the 11th pick in 2021, although they didn’t have a first-round pick in 2022 because of the trade up to select Fields.