Review Rewind: Vikings at Bears, Caleb Williams 2024 Week 12 Grade

A deeper look at Caleb Williams’ game against the Minnesota Vikings

Last week, I published an article outlining my process for grading quarterback play. A process I did for 3 Quarterbacks in the 2024 season: Chicago Bears’ Caleb Williams, Green Bay Packers’ Jordan Love, and Houston Texans’ C. J. Stroud. (If you missed it, you can check it out here.)

Quick note: In that article, I scored “Average” plays as a 0. I’ve since updated that to 0.10 and have become more selective with what I consider “Ungraded”, particularly when it comes to ultra-simple, routine throws, to ensure those still receive a score of 0.

I would like to now do a “rewind” review, going back to a game from the 2024 season to give you a sense of what to expect from me on a weekly basis in 2025 when I’m grading Caleb Williams.

For this rewind, we’re diving into the Bears’ Week 12 overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings, a wild game that saw Chicago force overtime late, only to fall short due to some… let’s say questionable defensive calls. But hey, that’s not my department. Let’s get into it!

Game Notes

Grading Sheet for each play can be found here.

First off, I would like to say that week 11 and week 12 were pleasant surprises considering the state of this team, and specifically, the offense. Credit to Thomas Brown, Caleb Williams, and the offensive staff/players as a whole for providing (overall) quality offensive football.

• Let’s start with the overall score: 4.15. That charts as a “Great” game by my grading system; Caleb’s third performance graded “Great” or higher on the season, joining his outings against the Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars.
• I charted one turnover-worthy throw in this game, his first since the week 6 against Jacksonville. (For reference, I grade turnover-worthy throws the same way I grade drops; the defender must have had a reasonable chance to make a play on the ball.) This week’s instance was a seam throw to Rome Odunze that was badly underthrown and, in all likelihood, should have been intercepted. PFF credited him with three turnover-worthy plays. I’m assuming the other two were:

1. The seam throw to Cole Kmet that sailed high, but to me, that wasn’t a reasonable pick opportunity; the defender only managed to get his fingertips on it while fully extended.
2. A sideline throw to Keenan Allen, after reviewing the play, it’s clear the defender was playing for a pass breakup and had no real shot at an interception.

• Caleb took three sacks in this game. One was a clear coverage sack, while the other two were on him. The most glaring example came in overtime, where he held the ball for 8.59 seconds. While it looked like either Kmet or Swift may have needed to release sooner from pass pro, that is simply too long to hang onto the ball. He needs to either tuck and run or throw it away. The desire to make a play is understandable, especially given the circumstance, but this is a clear example of Caleb needing to better recognize when to end a play and move on to the next down.
• Caleb had a 2.65 second time to throw this week (2.57 per PFF), marking the second straight game where the offense made a clear effort to get the ball out of his hands on time. It’s no secret that Caleb leads the league in sacks and ranks among the top five in longest average time to throw. This shift in approach should go a long way in helping address both of those issues.
• On that note, both the offensive line and Caleb did a solid job handling Brian Flores’ exotic defensive looks. The Bears allowed a pressure rate of 35.85%, marking the second consecutive week they’ve kept that number under 40% (33.33% against Green Bay in Week 11), a positive trend given the challenges they’ve faced in pass protection this season.
• Drops were an issue this week. Kmet, Allen, and Swift all let fairly routine passes slip through their hands, with the drops from Kmet and Swift standing out as the most egregious.
• Caleb recorded four elite throws and two great throws in this game, tying his career high for total big-time throws, previously set against the Colts. The four elite throws also mark a new personal best for a single game.

Play Reviews

Plays that are reviewed are done in order of when they happened in the game, so we’ll start with an early missed opportunity and move on from there.

Analysis: During the pre-snap read, Caleb reads blitz, but Van Ginkle drops to cover the hot WR, Keenan Allen, forcing Caleb to move off the throw. Vikings run a Cover 1 with Camryn Bynum robbing underneath. Caleb extends the play after the pass rush knocks him off his base (which is unfortunate here because Caleb is reading the left side of the field, which looks to just be levels, as it happens and is knocked off his throwing base as soon as Rome Odunze flashes open.) Cole Kmet does a good job flowing with Caleb on the play, giving him a target and working the zone. But bad throw placement leads to an incompletion; a throw up the sideline would have been much better placement, allowing Kmet to try to make a play on the ball using his momentum as opposed to going against it.

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Analysis: So this looks like Cover 3 to me, but I’m not 100% sure. Flores’ defenses are hard to read with how exotically they drop into coverages. This is essentially a modified flood concept with Rome running the clear out and Caleb reading the defense on how they react that, DJ being the safety value if nothing is open between those two. This throw comes out a tick late, as ideally you want the ball being released before your receiver starts his break, which in turn makes this window easier to hit, but Caleb’s arm strength and precision threads the needle for a huge gain to Keenan Allen.

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Analysis: Back-to-back elite throws here from Caleb! Vikings look to be in Cover 4, and they get a free rusher due to creating confusion on the line of scrimmage. This play really showcases everything Caleb excels at: he avoids the IMMEDIATE pressure and sack, keeps eyes downfield while buying time with his legs, throws 35 yards on the run to his right with NO throwing platform, and drops the ball perfectly in D’Andre Swift’s hands. If I were to venture a guess, it would be that this play was drawn up for Rome on the crossing route, but it gets blown up so quickly by the pressure that it never got to materialize. (also shout out to Cole Kmet, who is absolutely flying downfield!) Truly elite off-platform and playmaking from Caleb on this play.

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Analysis: The Vikings look to be in off Cover 2, and the Bears actually call a great play here to beat it. Nothing fancy, just all go routes. Another fantastic tight window throw and over the middle, any degree of inaccuracy, this is probably PBU or worse. Caleb delivers the ball in structure, stepping up and delivering a dart to Keenan Allen off the top of his drop. The ball is delivered behind Keenan, but this is perfect ball placement, not allowing the safety enough time to break on the ball and cause an incompletion.

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Analysis: This was, without a doubt, Caleb’s worst throw of the day and most dangerous throw. Not only does he miss an opportunity to hit a deep shot for Rome, but it’s severely underthrown, nearly leading to a turnover. The Vikings have a Cover 1 look but drop into Cover 2 post-snap. Bears run a Dagger out of Trips, and Rome has a free release; a ball lofted over the deep safety might be a house call. The more I watch this, the more it seems like Caleb was expecting Rome to sit on the route. So this may be due to miscommunication, but without being in the huddle, it’s impossible to know.

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Analysis: This is just an example of a throw that should not be missed on this level. Bears look to run a Snag combo on the near side with Rome running a Fade to the top of the screen. Vikings look to be in Cover 2 man. I’m not exactly sure what’s going on with Keenan’s route, but he doesn’t exactly have the agility to pull off whatever he’s doing. Regardless, Caleb delivers a poorly thrown ball here with just under 10 air yard,s you would expect your QB to be accurate with his throw to give his WR a chance on 3rd down.

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Analysis: This is another throw up the seam showcasing Caleb’s arm strength, and ability to drive the ball in tight windows. Vikings look to be in some variant of Cover 3, and Cole Kmet running the Seam route to perfectly attack the void between the deep zones. Keenan Allen does a respectable job getting upfield to make the defense account for him, opening the window to throw. The throw is a tad late and delivered behind Kmet, forcing him to stop for the ball; however, it’s delivered with fantastic zip once again, beating the tight window he had to throw into.

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Analysis: Amazing throw and play call given the situation. Vikings look to be running a Cover 6, dropping 6 men 15+ yards off the line of scrimmage. The Offensive Line gives the team a chance here with good pass pro to allow a deep throw. Caleb throws with anticipation over 2 outstretched defenders’ hands to the soft zone between them and the deep Safety. Caleb puts the ball in the ONLY place that beats the defenders in front of DJ, and doesn’t allow the defenders behind him to make a play on it. Beautifully executed clutch throw.

Summary

Despite the less-than-desirable outcome of the game, Caleb Williams stepped up in a huge way to not only give his team a chance to steal a victory, but he also made some fantastic throws throughout the game to showcase his elite arm talent. That of which we saw flashes of throughout the season. I hope you enjoyed this preview of the method of my breakdowns, I look forward to providing these looks every week for the coming season!

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Gary Baugher Jr. is a rookie contributor to WCG, bringing football insight backed by over 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a passionate fan of the game. You can follow him on Twitter at @iamcogs.