WCG’s lead draft analyst predicts the stats of each of the Bears’ top offensive playmakers.
With free agency and the 2025 NFL Draft in the rearview mirror, the Bears’ offensive roster has taken shape coming into the new season.
There are plenty of major changes in Chicago’s offense, and it starts in the coaching staff. Ben Johnson has replaced Matt Eberflus as the Bears’ head coach, and he replaces the rotation of Shane Waldron and Thomas Brown as the primary offensive play-caller.
He has brought in his own offensive staff, many of whom having ties to the Dan Campbell (Johnson’s head coach in Detroit) or Sean Payton (Campbell’s head coach in New Orleans) coaching trees.
The Bears’ personnel is also different. The interior offensive line figures to be entirely different at all three spots. Keenan Allen and Gerald Everett are gone, and the likes of Luther Burden, Colston Loveland and Kyle Monangai replace them.
Needless to say, the Bears’ offense should look a lot different in 2025.
I wanted to project what type of numbers Chicago’s offensive weapons will put up this season. Using Johnson’s past tendencies and my own analysis of the Bears’ individual players, I have decided to whip up some rough projections on what the stat sheet could look like for key players by the end of the year.
To start, I took a look at the Lions’ reception share percentage from 2024:
- WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: 24.56%
- WR Jameson Williams: 15.54%
- TE Sam LaPorta: 14.04%
- RB Jahmyr Gibbs: 13.03%
- WR Tim Patrick: 7.52%
- RB David Montgomery: 7.02%
- WR Kalif Raymond: 3.76%
- TE Brock Wright: 2.76%
- The field: 11.77%
Before making any additional changes, these are the rough parameters I set for myself in terms of the Bears’ reception allocation, making slight changes as needed to better reflect the skill level of Chicago’s personnel:
- WR DJ Moore: 22%
- WR Rome Odunze: 17%
- TE: Cole Kmet: 12%
- WR Luther Burden: 12%
- RB D’Andre Swift: 10%
- TE: Colston Loveland: 9%
- RB: Roschon Johnson: 5%
- The field: 13%
Between Johnson’s three years as the Lions’ offensive play-caller, the team averaged 379.6 passing completions per year. His 2023 and 2024 seasons both saw Detroit finish with 390 completions or more, and while I won’t have the Bears reach those numbers, I’ll stick with the rough average of 379 for my Chicago projections.
These numbers below leave roughly 33 receptions up for grabs between the likes of Olamide Zaccheaus, Devin Duvernay, Durham Smythe, Tyler Scott, Collin Johnson, Travis Homer, and whichever skill weapons find themselves rotating through the 53-man roster. I will also allocate 267 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns between this bunch. In honesty, most of those yards and receptions will likely go to Zaccheaus.
I have the team totaling 4,061 passing yards, which would be a downgrade from what the Lions had with Ben Johnson, but an upgrade from what the Bears had with Shane Waldron and Thomas Brown.
Though Caleb Williams played in all 17 games in 2024, I like to err on the side of caution with injuries, so I will predict he missed two games. To account for that, I will subtract 36 completions, 56 passing attempts, 403 yards, three passing touchdowns and two interceptions from his total. This results in two slight downgraded games by NFL passing standards, which is about fair for a backup quarterback.
As for the ground game, I find it hard to believe the Bears will have a running back put up numbers like the 5.6 yards per carry Jahmyr Gibbs had under Johnson in 2024. That said, given the offensive line improvements that have happened in Chicago, I feel like a healthy medium between that and the Bears’ ground game in 2024 would be a good projection.
Between Caleb Williams, D’Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Kyle Monangai and Luther Burden — an explosive weapon in space who I anticipate will see carries in the run game — I allocate 1,881 rushing yards.
Throwing in another 60-70 rushing yards between Homer, any practice squad call-ups at running back or other offensive weapons would give the Bears a middle-of-the-road rushing attack, which would be an upgrade over 2024. It would also make sense, given an improved offensive line but still a lack of significant investment at running back.
Caleb Williams
Though I don’t have Williams being the first Bears quarterback to reach 4,000 passing yards in a single season, he should be well on pace to reach that mark if everything goes according to plan.
Given the adjustment for injury potential, Williams’ 243.8 passing yards per game in this hypothetical would’ve ranked 11th in the NFL last year. I do anticipate a spike in completion percentage and passing touchdowns in Year 2, given his own projected improvements and the investments the Bears made around him. I also project an increase in interceptions, though, as the offense projects to be more aggressive.
Stats: 309 completions on 469 passing attempts (65.4%), 3,658 passing yards, 28 touchdowns, 12 interceptions, 61 rushes for 378 rushing yards (6.2 YPC)
D’Andre Swift
Barring the addition of a free agent like Nick Chubb or a trade target like Kenneth Walker, Swift figures to be the Bears’ lead running back in 2025.
As was the case for Swift in 2024, he should take on the lion’s share of the carries in Chicago’s backfield. His 3.8 yards per carry was the worst single-season average of his career, and while I don’t anticipate he puts up elite numbers this year, that average should increase behind a better offensive line.
Stats: 220 rushes for 924 yards (4.2 YPC), 7 rushing touchdowns, 34 receptions, 318 yards, 1 receiving touchdown
Roschon Johnson
Johnson averaged just 2.7 yards per carry in 2024, but that’s reflective of his heavy usage as a goal-line back. He finished the year with six rushing touchdowns, though, and no running back in the NFL that scored three touchdowns had fewer than his 55 rushes, much less six.
Because of his goal-line status, I expect the yards per carry averages to be low with Johnson again. I also anticipate his touchdown numbers go down with the addition of Kyle Monangai to the fold. However, I do expect Johnson becomes more efficient with the carries he gets when he isn’t in goal-to-go situations.
Stats: 70 rushes for 238 yards (3.4 YPC), 4 rushing touchdowns, 12 receptions, 108 yards
Kyle Monangai
I’m not going to go too crazy with Monangai’s production, as he is a seventh-round rookie entering the Bears’ backfield. That said, I’m high enough on him to project him being efficient with his carries.
It wouldn’t surprise if Monangai led the Bears’ running back room in yards per carry, given his processing skills in between the tackles and toughness at the wrap-up point. He might not light the world on fire as a rookie, but he’ll show enough to have Bears fans excited for him in Year 2.
Stats: 52 carries for 239 yards (4.6 YPC), 2 rushing touchdowns, 3 receptions, 31 yards
DJ Moore
Barring an unforeseen injury or major drop in play, I see Moore maintaining his status as the Bears’ WR1 this year.
Moore only averaged 9.9 yards per reception in 2024, though he increased his reception total from 96 in 2023 to 98 the following year. Given the additions of Burden and Loveland in the passing game — as well as the projected development of Odunze — expect Moore’s target numbers to drop a little. That said, I’m still expecting a 1,000-yard season out of him.
Stats: 81 receptions, 1,043 yards, 6 touchdowns
Rome Odunze
As a rookie, Odunze finished the season with 54 catches for 734 yards and three touchdowns. It’s a fair expectation for those numbers to increase in Year 2.
The Bears’ draft additions and remaining presence of DJ Moore make it tough for me to think Odunze matches the elite numbers of his fellow 2024 draft alumni in Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers. I do anticipate a nice jump in touchdown production for him, though, with the departure of Keenan Allen and the former Washington star’s own development.
Stats: 64 receptions, 902 yards, 8 touchdowns
Luther Burden
A dynamic slot receiver with tremendous agility and contact balance, Burden has the potential to become a YAC demon in the NFL. He might face his fair share of obstacles to reaching that potential in Year 1, though.
Missouri didn’t allow him to run a full NFL route tree, and while I believe Burden will be able to do so in the pros, he might have a slight learning curve. Regardless of that — as well as the other talent around him — he’s too good to ignore. Johnson would be smart to utilize him on jet sweeps and end-arounds, similarly to how he used Jameson Williams in Detroit.
Stats: 45 receptions, 572 yards, 4 touchdowns, 14 rushes, 102 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown
Cole Kmet
Kmet saw his numbers drop in 2024, though much of that came down to Chicago having a deeper group of weapons than what he was used to in the past.
The upcoming sixth-year pro should still be a reliable target in the Bears’ passing game, serving as a security blanket against zone coverage across the middle of the field. He’ll be a solid producer, but with stiff competition around him in Chicago, he might come a long cry from the 73 catches he had in 2023.
Stats: 42 receptions, 425 yards, 5 touchdowns
Colston Loveland
Rookie tight ends don’t typically light the world on fire, though Brock Bowers proved to be a phenomenal exception last year. I think Loveland’s production settles more into the historical norm at the position.
Loveland will have to battle for significant touches early, making a slow start for the 2025 first-round pick a possibility. However, given his elite athleticism and ability to stretch the field, I bet he’s used more as a vertical threat than Kmet in the Bears’ offense.
For reference, this stat line would have had Loveland finish as TE31 in fantasy football last year, placing him as one of the best backup tight ends in the NFL. I expect him to finish the year strong and eventually take over as the primary tight end target in Chicago’s offense.
Stats: 31 receptions, 395 yards, 4 touchdowns