Yes, you read that title correctly, Patrick Mahomes represents a terrific value right now in best ball drafts. In some cases, he goes off Underdog draft boards in round eight. I was able to snag Mahomes in one of my current best ball drafts at pick 94. Mahomes represents a perfect example of where a savvy fantasy manager can take advantage of recency bias and use it to their advantage. Mahomes was a disappointment last season by the standard we have come to expect from him. Despite the overall QB12 finish, Mahomes posted a career low in passing yards and tied a career low in touchdown passes. In addition, his 17.7 fantasy points per game were the second-lowest for his career. We expect that to change in 2025 and for Mahomes to return to form!
Patrick Mahomes: A Draft Value and Will Return to Form in 2025
Patrick Mahomes Has a Supporting Cast in Place
Last season, Patrick Mahomes lost his top wide receiver, Rashee Rice, after week 3 and arguably played the entire season with his worst overall offensive cast ever. However, things should be much better in 2025. Reports out of OTAs indicate that Rice is showing well and is expected to be a full go for week one. Now we would be remiss if we did not mention the possible suspension that may be coming for Rice, but we will address that later.
Xavier Worthy showed major growth in the second half of last season. From week 11 on, Worthy averaged 15.5 fantasy points per game and finished the season with the most targets among all Chiefs wide receivers. Worthy will only get better in year two. He is a player utilized at and around the line of scrimmage that can make a ‘house call’ on any play. Perhaps no one is better at utilizing offensive personnel than Andy Reid.
His most trusted weapon, tight end Travis Kelce, despite being 35 years old, still finished as the overall PPR TE5. Kelce remains a vital part of the Chiefs’ offense. Backup tight end Noah Gray came on last year, posting 40 receptions, and his five touchdowns were tied for second on the team. Gray is a tight end I am targeting in all my best ball drafts in the late rounds!
Mahomes Sneaky Rushing Upside and Some Other Offensive Nuggets
Another fact some fantasy players may not be aware of or possibly forget is the sneaky rushing upside that Patrick Mahomes possesses. In his last five seasons, Mahomes has finished in the top 12 in quarterback rushing yards. Over that span, he has rushed for at least 300 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns.
Two additional players posting some offensive buzz at OTAs are Chiefs rookies Jalen Royals and Brashard Smith. Smith appears to be a candidate for the role of passing-down back. We saw how valuable Jerrick McKinnon was there, finishing as a top 20 fantasy running back in 2022. Jalen Royals profiles as a downfield threat and has been making plays in the red zone drills.
We also have Andy Reid talking up ex-patriot Tyquan Thornton at OTAs, indicating he may be in the mix for a roster spot. The whole point here is that Mahomes has a plethora of weapons at his disposal, and if his ADP stays in round eight, he will be a screaming value.
Even if a suspension comes down on Rice, Kansas City has put safeguards in place to protect Mahomes and keep the potential for a big fantasy season from fading. If you can wait until the eighth round to draft your fantasy quarterback and get Patrick Mahomes, that is a no-brainer. With Mahomes, you get exposure to the entire Kansas City offensive arsenal, instead of trying to guess which one will break out each week. Do it and you’ll thank us at LWOS later!
Main Image: Bill Streicher – Imagn Images
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