For Week 18, we’re backing the Chicago Bears and Buffalo Bills. Inside, we examine our NFL Week 18 expert picks against the spread.
NFL Week 18 Expert Picks Against The Spread
*Odds courtesy of BetOnline. The odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.
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NFL Week 18 Expert Picks Against the Spread
Chicago Bears +3 (-115)
Does anyone else feel like the Chicago Bears are this year’s version of the 2022 Detroit Lions? In 2022, the Lions started 1-6 but went 8-2 the rest of the way. With no chance of the postseason, the Lions went into Lambeau Field in Week 18 and defeated the Packers to prevent Green Bay from making the playoffs.
A similar scenario could play out Sunday afternoon when the Bears roll into Lambeau Field to play the Packers. If the Packers defeat the Bears, Green Bay clinches a playoff berth. If the Packers lose, they miss the playoffs unless Minnesota, Seattle, and Tampa Bay/New Orleans all lose.
Matt LaFleur is 57-30 SU and 50-37 ATS as the Packers head coach. However, LaFleur is only 5-5 SU in January.
The Packers are riding high after their 33-10 win over the Vikings in Week 17. In the biggest moment of the season, Jordan Love delivered, completing 24 of 33 passes for 256 yards and three touchdowns. Can Love string together two great performances in a row?
The Bears have won four of the last five games. During that span, Justin Fields has been good but not great. Fields hasn’t thrown for more than 268 yards in the past five games. However, Fields has been an effective runner, rushing for 289 yards and three touchdowns.
Since Week 11:
Bears:
– EPA/play: -0.052 (20th)
– Success rate: 40.5% (24th)
– Yards per play: 4.8 (24th)
– TD drive rate: 18.1% (20th)Fields:
– 6.3 Y/A: (T-31st, min. 50 attempts)
– 75.6% adjusted completion rate (18th)
– 5 TDs, 3 INTs
– Does lead in rushingTop 10 baby https://t.co/D37MsPGxeM
— Brad Spielberger, Esq. (@PFF_Brad) January 3, 2024
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The reason for the Bears’ resurgence has been their defense. Since acquiring Montez Sweat in Week 9, the Bears are 2nd in EPA/play defense. Chicago has the best run defense in the league (84.0 yards/game).
Takeaways have been the Bears’ specialty all season, ranking third in the NFL with 27 and first in interceptions (22).
There is also the human element to consider. This could be Fields’ last game as a Bear. A win against the Packers could make that decision harder for Chicago’s front offense. Because of their elite defense, I like the Bears to cover.
Buffalo Bills -2.5 (-117)
Dolphins WRs Tyreek Hill (personal) and Jaylen Waddle (ankle), and RB Raheem Mostert returned to practice.
Waddle ran routes and caught passes from Tua Tagovailoa in individual drills, the most work we’ve seen him do this week. pic.twitter.com/RM9115HzQJ
— Daniel Oyefusi (@DanielOyefusi) January 5, 2024
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The Week 18 game with the most at stake will be Sunday night when the Buffalo Bills head to South Florida to play the Miami Dolphins. The winner clinches the AFC East and No. 2 seed. If Miami loses, they will be the No. 6 seed. If Buffalo loses, they could miss the postseason entirely if the Steelers and Jaguars win.
One team is peaking at the right time, while the other is fading fast.
Let’s start with Miami, which has been decimated by injuries the past few weeks. The Dolphins lost their two best pass rushers – Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb – to season-ending injuries. Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert returned to practice Friday, but there is no guarantee they play. Tyreek Hill also practiced Friday, but he’s dealing with the aftermath of a terrible fire at his house.
In the most important game of the season, Miami will not be at full strength. Now, the Dolphins must play a Bills team that has been playing do-or-die games for the last month.
Buffalo enters Miami on a four-game winning streak, which has put them in a position to win the AFC East. Primetime games have not been kind to Buffalo, losing seven straight night games ATS (Action Network).
Josh Allen is the Bills’ version of Superman. However, Allen has not had to wear the cape during this four-game winning streak. Allen has failed to throw for more than 237 yards. However, Allen has been a monster on the ground, rushing for six touchdowns.
With Miami in the postseason, their top priority will be to get healthy for the playoffs. Buffalo does not have that luxury. They could be facing a must-win scenario depending on the results of the other games. I’ll side with a desperate Bills team that needs to win.
The post NFL Week 18 Expert Picks Against the Spread: Bears, Bills Among Best Bets appeared first on The Sports Daily.