For Week 17, we’re backing the Chicago Bears and Los Angeles Rams. Inside, we examine our NFL Week 17 expert picks against the spread.
NFL Week 17 Expert Picks Against The Spread
*Odds courtesy of BetOnline. The odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.
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NFL Week 17 Expert Picks Against the Spread
Chicago Bears -2.5 (-115)
What is the Montez Sweat effect?
It’s making offenses account 3 players to one to make sure he doesn’t make the play.
One more big pass rusher and the Bears Dline will be dangerous. #DaBears #Bears #BearsNation pic.twitter.com/apw43pC0lj
— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) December 28, 2023
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If you’re not a quarterback, winning a game by yourself is tough. However, Bears defense end Montez Sweat is challenging that theory.
On October 31, 2023, Sweat was traded to the Bears from the Washington Commanders for a second-round pick in the upcoming draft. In six games, Sweat has six sacks (12.5 total), 13 quarterback hits, three pass breakups, and one forced fumble.
More importantly, Sweat has elevated the entire Bears’ defense, going from 22nd to 11th in takeaways (23) and 23rd to 12th in yards allowed (318.1 yards/game).
Though the team will probably move on from him in the offseason, Justin Fields has played well the last month, with five total touchdowns and three interceptions in his past four games. Chicago is 3-1 during that stretch.
The Bears now face the Atlanta Falcons, who might be the most inconsistent team in the NFL. The Falcons are the third-worst team ATS this season at 5-10.
The Bears have the best run defense in the league (80.7 yards/game), which doesn’t bode well for Falcons running back Bijan Robinson. Then again, Arthur Smith doesn’t give the ball to Robinson consistently.
The Falcons can succeed through the air against the Bears’ 25th-ranked pass defense (237.5 yards/game). Can Taylor Heinicke take care of the ball against a defense with 18 interceptions (2nd in NFL)?
With the addition of Sweat, the Bears’ defense is playing on another level. I’ll back Chicago’s defense to lead the team to a victory and cover.
Los Angeles Rams -5.5 (-113)
Puka Nacua has a 500 yard lead on the rest of the rookie pass catcher class
pic.twitter.com/xK2BzdZDE2
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) December 26, 2023
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The Baltimore Ravens have played the best football over the last six weeks. There is a real argument that the Los Angeles Rams are right behind the Ravens for the best team in football during that same timeframe.
Since Week 11, the Rams are 5-1, with the only loss coming in overtime on the road to the Ravens.
The Rams have a clear path to the playoffs. Los Angeles is the six-seed heading into Week 17, and with a win over the Giants, their postseason chances increase to 88%.
The Rams’ offense has been firing on all cylinders with 28+ points in five straight games. Running back Kyren Williams is thriving in Sean McVay’s system, with 1,057 yards rushing (2nd in the NFL). Williams now faces a Giants team ranked 29th against the run (134.2 yards/game).
Matthew Stafford looks like an elite quarterback again, and with a 1-2 combo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, the Rams’ passing attack could have a field day. The Giants’ best DB, Deonte Banks, is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Tyrod Taylor will start at quarterback over Tommy DeVito, who was benched in the Week 16 loss against the Eagles. Taylor injected some life into the Giants’ offense in the second half of the Eagles game, outscoring Philly 22-13.
What the Giants have going for them is the Rams’ road difficulties. Los Angeles is 4-11 SU in their last 15 road games dating back to last season.
Taylor can play mistake-free football to keep this close. However, the Giants don’t have the horsepower to keep up with the Rams’ offense.
The post NFL Week 17 Expert Picks Against the Spread: Bears, Rams Among Bets appeared first on The Sports Daily.