The Chicago Bears are (4-2) coming out of their Week 7 bye. With a gauntlet of a schedule ahead, how good of shape are they in moving forward? We grade the season that has been and dive into a look at what is ahead.
Although the official halfway point of the season is still a few weeks away, the Chicago Bears enjoyed an early Week 7 bye after traveling to London. Sitting at (4-2), they boast the league’s third-best point differential. By most accounts, the start of the 2024 season has been a success.
Context is always needed when judging a team this early in the season. Chicago currently holds the weakest strength of schedule and strength of victory in the league. Even so, their point differential speaks to a team that is not only handling business against bad teams but doing it dominantly. With a trio of winnable games before a daunting final eight-game concludes the season, can the Bears find a way to make the playoffs in the league’s best division? We’ll take a deeper look into the season that has been and what to expect over the final 11 games of the season.
Offense
Following the first two weeks of the season, it would have been easy to write off this unit. Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams was struggling, the offensive line looked horrendous, and Shane Waldron looked like a worse version of Luke Getsy. Somehow, they could get out of that stretch at (1-1), but things did not appear to be moving in a positive direction. To add insult to injury, 2nd overall pick Jayden Daniels was lighting it up in Washington for the Commanders.
Running back D’Andre Swift, who signed a three-year, $24 million deal in the offseason, looked worse than his career-worst season. Keenan Allen missed two of the first three games. The list of negatives went farther than the eye cared to see. After an up-and-down Week 3, things finally started to click in Week 4. Although Williams’ numbers weren’t eye-popping, the offense scored a season-high 24 points, and they didn’t turn the ball over. Swift’s production stood out in a big way, and the offensive line was settling in.
In Weeks 5 and 6, Chicago’s offense scored a combined 71 points. Williams went for over 300 yards again against the Carolina Panthers, and they punted a total of six times in those two games. Not only did the offense average over 35 points per game, they averaged just short of 400 yards per game. On paper, the offense appears to have figured things out. Again, though, context is key. They’ve faced the league’s worst three defenses in back-to-back-to-back weeks, according to the defensive DVOA metric. The good news? They’ll face the Commanders (28th), Arizona Cardinals (23rd), and New England Patriots (29th) coming out of the bye week. That’s three more bottom 10 units on the docket before their final eight games of the season.
They’ll need to prove they can produce against better defenses but with three more “warm-ups” incoming, they’ll have enough time to work out any more kinks they might encounter before that tough stretch.
Grade: C+
Defense
Chicago’s defense appears to have picked up right where they left off in 2023. It’s easy to forget, but this was one of the league’s worst defenses for the first year and a half of Matt Eberflus’ tenure. Once they got things figured out, they haven’t looked back. They currently hold the league’s longest streak of holding teams under 21 points or less at 12 games.
The pass-rushing production has vastly improved. After ranking toward the bottom of the league last season in Pass Rush Win Rate, they ranked 2nd at (54%) heading into Week 7. They ranked 7th in the league in sacks going into the weekend, and their 72.8 passer rating against ranked 2nd in the league. Chicago is giving up 180 passing yards per game through the air and has three more interceptions (7) than touchdowns given up (4). By all accounts, they’ve been elite against the pass.
Now, they have taken a step back against the run so far. Not only are they giving up close to 30 yards more per game on the ground (112), but they’ve allowed far too many explosive runs through the first six games of the season. Part of that is that their defensive tackle depth has taken a hit with Zacch Pickens being out, but players like Gervon Dexter Sr. and Chris Williams must be better against the run.
As a unit, the Bears rank 2nd in takeaways (13), 5th in points against, and 6th in defensive DVOA. Keep in mind that all of these numbers are without the results of Week 7s games in hand. But this gives fans an idea of where the Bears rank defensively when they glided into the bye week. Overall, there’s not much else fans could ask for outside of slightly better production against the run. Assuming they can continue to get after the passer and cut down on explosive plays against, there’s no reason to believe they won’t finish as a Top 5-10 unit.
Grade: A
Special Teams
During the draft, the Bears decided that they were going to spend a mid-fourth-round selection on a punter. Tory Taylor became among the highest-drafted punters over the last 10 years. So far, the investment has been paying off, albeit consistency has been an issue at times for the rookie. Cairo Santos is as reliable as ever, as long as kicks are within his range. Long snapper has been a revolving door through six games. Patrick Scales was placed on Injured Reserve with a back injury. Scott Daly replaced him until Week 6, then he was ruled out with a knee injury and is day-to-day. Tight end Cole Kmet did a nice job filling in, but it’s not a long-term solution. In total, things have gone well for this unit. The biggest issue was Velus Jones Jr. muffing a kickoff and subsequently being a healthy scratch since.
Grade: B
Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images
What’s Ahead
In some ways, it feels like the season just started. So, it’s hard to believe that we’re heading into Week 8. Chicago has 11 games left in the regular season, and only one of those will be a non-conference game. So far, they are (2-0) in conference play and have yet to play a divisional opponent. That will change starting Week 11 when they start a stretch of six NFC North opponents in eight games. Through seven weeks, the North’s 19-6 record is the best of any division in the league.
Over the next three weeks, they’ll face the league’s 29th, 28th, and 23rd-ranked defenses, according to defensive DVOA. If Chicago can find a way to go (2-1) before starting divisional play, they’ll be in good shape at (6-3). Conceivably, they could split their final eight games, finish (10-7), and get into the playoffs. Here’s what the final 11 games look like for the Bears.
Week 8: At Washington Commanders (5-2)
Week 9: At Arizona Cardinals (2-4)* Pending Monday night’s results
Week 10: Vs New England Patriots (2-5)
Week 11: Vs Green Bay Packers (5-2)
Week 12: Vs Minnesota Vikings (5-1)
Week 13: At Detroit Lions (5-1)
Week 14: At San Francisco 49ers (3-4)
Week 15: At Minnesota Vikings (5-1)
Week 16: Vs Detroit Lions (5-1)
Week 17: Vs Seattle Seahawks (4-3)
Week 18: At Green Bay Packers (5-2)
In the Bears’ final 11 games, they’ll face eight teams over .500. It’ll be interesting to see how they fare in those games, but coming out of the bye week with a win would be a quality way to start their final stretch of games. Assuming a successful three-game stint before they start their divisional slate, they should be in the playoff mix come late December.
Final Thoughts and Overall Grade
Before the season started, I spent a month or so putting together my yearly Bears season predictions. I went back and forth on a few games, but in the end, I had them at (3-3) heading into the bye week and finishing (10-7) overall. On the surface, I’d say that they’ve exceeded my expectations, but that would be without the context of a few teams being worse than I had originally expected.
Through seven weeks, Chicago has had the easiest schedule. They can only play who is on the schedule, but that goes both ways. Their final 11 games should present a much more difficult challenge. Winning two of three before their final eight games will be key, but a (4-2) start is impressive, no matter how you cut it. It will be interesting to see how this offense produces against better defenses, but they should hit the ground running coming out of the bye week. Overall, fans should be happy with where this team is at and anxious to see how they can finish out the season.
Grade: B+