Gold and silver soared to all-time highs, as escalating geopolitical tensions and bets on further US rate cuts added momentum to the best annual performance in more than four decades.
Bullion climbed as much as 2.1% to surpass the previous record of $4,381 an ounce set in October, while silver rallied as much as 3.4%, closing in on $70 an ounce. The move extends a blistering rally that has put both metals firmly on course for their strongest annual performance since 1979.
The latest push higher comes as traders bet that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates twice in 2026, and as US President Donald Trump also advocates for looser monetary policy. Lower rates are typically a tailwind for precious metals, which don’t pay interest.
Rising geopolitical tensions are also enhancing the haven appeal of gold and silver. The US has intensified an oil blockade against Venezuela, stepping up pressure on the government of President Nicolás Maduro, while Ukraine attacked an oil tanker from Russia’s shadow fleet in the Mediterranean Sea for the first time.
“Today’s rally is largely driven by early positioning around Fed rate-cut expectations, amplified by thin year-end liquidity,” said Dilin Wu, a strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. Sluggish jobs growth and softer-than-expected US inflation in November supported the narrative for more rate cuts, she said.
Gold has surged by more than 65% this year, underpinned by increased central-bank purchases and inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds. Trump’s aggressive moves to reshape global trade — as well as his threats to the US central bank’s independence — added fuel to the scorching rally earlier this year.
Investors have also played an important role in gold’s ascent, spurred in part by the so-called debasement trade — a retreat from sovereign bonds and the currencies they are denominated in over fears their value will erode over time due to ballooning debt levels. Gold-backed ETFs have seen inflows rise over the last four straight weeks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, and World Gold Council figures show total holdings in these funds have risen every month this year except May.
Other precious metals also surged, with palladium rallying as much as 5.1% to hit the highest in nearly three years. Platinum rose for an eighth straight session and traded above $2,000 for the first time since 2008.
Gold has bounced back quickly after a retreat from its peak in October, when the rally was seen as crowded and overheated, and is now positioned to carry these gains into next year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is among several banks who predict prices will keep rising in 2026, issuing a base-case scenario of $4,900 an ounce with risks to the upside. ETF investors, it said, are starting to compete with central banks for limited physical supply.
Central-bank buying, physical demand and geopolitical hedging were “medium- to long-term anchors, while Fed policy and real rates continue to drive cyclical swings,” according to Pepperstone’s Wu. New entrants to the gold market, such as stablecoin issuers like Tether Holdings SA and certain corporate treasury departments, were creating a “broader capital base” that “adds resilience to demand,” she said in a note.
Silver’s recent advance has been buoyed by speculative inflows and lingering supply dislocations across major trading hubs following a historic short squeeze in October. The total trading volume for silver futures in Shanghai spiked earlier this month to levels near those seen during the crunch a couple of months ago.
Platinum — which has rallied about 125% this year — has risen with added speed in recent days as the London market shows signs of tightening. Banks are parking more metal in the US to insure against the risk of tariffs, while exports to China have been robust as demand grows and contracts begin trading on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange.
Spot gold rose 2.1% to $4,429.99 an ounce as of 10:45 a.m. in New York. Silver advanced 2.7% to $68.96 an ounce. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%.
The main factors affecting the market were the prospect of more rate cuts and “geopolitical concerns, particularly around Ukraine and the Trump administration’s recent national security strategy,” said Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery in Sydney, adding that Japan-China tensions and the situation in Venezuela were also supporting gold.