CHICAGO — A former Associated Press National Football League Coach of the Year who was born in Chicago recently weighed in on likely No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams and what he sees in the former Heisman trophy winner.
Mike Smith, former head coach of the Atlanta Falcons (2008-14) and 2008 AP NFL Coach of the Year, inherited a team in 2008 that selected eventual NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Matt Ryan with the third overall pick before he helped lead Atlanta to an 11-5 record and their first playoff birth since 2004.
Before becoming a head coach with the Falcons, Smith served as a defensive coordinator with the Jacksonville Jaguars (2003-07) and as a defensive assistant, defensive line and linebackers coach with the Baltimore Ravens (1999-02), helping coach a defense that led Baltimore to a Super Bowl XXXV victory.
Fair to say, Smith has experienced more than his fair share of NFL coaching success. He understands how much of a gamble selecting a quarterback in the draft can be, and how that gamble will often decide how long a coaching staff and front office get to stick around for an NFL team.
“There’s no sure thing when you’re drafting a quarterback, even in the first round. If you look back, the hit rate over the last 15 years is about 35%,” Smith said in an interview with Betway Insider. “When you start talking about the first half of the draft, you better hit because if you don’t, you’re not likely to be working for that organization for very long.”
Since the 2008 NFL Draft, 48 quarterbacks have been selected in the first round, with 20 of those quarterbacks making at least one pro bowl during their NFL careers.
Here’s a list, denoted by year, of every quarterback selected in the first round going back to 2008:
*Indicates being selected to at least one Pro Bowl.
- Bryce Young (2023)
- CJ Stroud (2023)*
- Anthony Richardson (2023)
- Kenny Pickett (2022)
- Trevor Lawrence (2021)*
- Zach Wilson (2021)
- Trey Lance (2021)
- Justin Fields (2021)
- Mac Jones (2021)*
- Joe Burrow (2020)*
- Tua Tagovailoa (2020)*
- Justin Herbert (2020)*
- Jordan Love (2020)
- Kyler Murray (2019)*
- Daniel Jones (2019)
- Dwayne Haskins (2019)
- Baker Mayfield (2018)*
- Sam Darnold (2018)
- Josh Allen (2018)*
- Josh Rosen (2018)
- Lamar Jackson (2018)*
- Mitchell Trubisky (2017)
- Patrick Mahomes (2017)*
- Deshaun Watson (2017)*
- Jared Goff (2016)*
- Carson Wentz (2016)*
- Paxton Lynch (2016)
- Jameis Winston (2015)
- Marcus Mariota (2015)
- Blake Bortles (2014)
- Johnny Manziel (2014)
- Teddy Bridgewater (2014)
- EJ Manuel (2013)
- Andrew Luck (2012)*
- Robert Griffin III (2012)*
- Ryan Tannehill (2012)*
- Brandon Weeden (2012)
- Cam Newton (2011)*
- Jake Locker (2011)
- Blaine Gabbert (2011)
- Christian Ponder (2011)
- Sam Bradford (2010)
- Tim Tebow (2010)
- Matthew Stafford (2009)*
- Mark Sanchez (2009)
- Josh Freeman (2009)
- Matt Ryan (2008)*
- Joe Flacco (2008)
Going further down the rabbit hole, of those 48 quarterbacks, only ten went on to make multiple pro bowls — Matt Ryan with four, Matthew Stafford with two, Cam Newton with three, Andrew Luck with four, Jared Goff with three, Deshaun Watson with three, Patrick Mahomes with six, Lamar Jackson with three, Josh Allen with two and Kyler Murray with two.
If Williams wants to be considered in the top 20% of quarterbacks drafted in the first round over the past decade-and-a-half, Smith thinks he’ll need to rely on his best traits while also continuing to develop his footwork and ability to work “on schedule,” or within the pocket as plays are scripted to happen.
“I like his arm strength. He’s got great arm talent. He throws with good velocity. He throws well on the move when plays break down and in the NFL, plays are going to break down,” Smith said. “He’s a very good quarterback on tape … The only concern I have, which isn’t a big one, is his below average height. Also, his footwork sometimes can make him miss on timing throws.
“If you watch some of his incompletions, there are timing throws missed but that’s something that can be coached into him very easily.”
In two years at the University of Southern California, Williams completed 599 of 888 passes (67.5%) for 8,170 yards, 72 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, to go with 210 carries for 524 yards (2.5 YPC) and 21 touchdowns on the ground. This included his Heisman trophy campaign, where he completed 333 of 500 passes for 4,537 yards, 42 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and ran the ball 113 times for 382 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2022.
Based on the offseason moves the Bears have made involving their coaching staff and roster, the former AP NFL Coach of the Year sees little reason why he shouldn’t end up in Chicago.
Especially after the team moved on from quarterback Justin Fields.
“He’s the consensus first pick and the Chicago Bears are in dire need of a quarterback after trading Justin Fields to the Pittsburgh Steelers for just a sixth-round pick,” Smith said.
The 2024 NFL Draft is set to kickoff in Detroit on Thursday, April 25 with the first round starting at 7 p.m. Central Time.