The NFL Draft is a time of hope and disappointment for many fanbases. Here are a few thoughts that should be safe enough to ponder for most people, though.
Another NFL draft has taken place, and teams need to begin working on incorporating their new infusions of talent into their organizations. Fans need to adjust to new expectations and realities, as well. Before turning the page, here are five thoughts on the 2025 NFL Draft.
1) Offense was the priority, again
From 2011-2023, the NFL averaged taking 5 edge defenders, 3 interior defensive linemen, 2 linebackers, and 6 defensive backs per draft class. On the other side of the ball, the averages were basically 6 offensive linemen, 4 wide receivers, 3 quarterbacks, 1 tight end, and 1 running back. If you’re paying attention, you’ll not that adds up to 31 picks, because averages don’t work out neatly, but there was clearly a balance over time.
Then, in 2024, the draft notably tilted in favor of the offense, with only 4 edge defenders, 2 interior defensive linemen, no linebackers, and 3 defensive backs going in the first round. By contrast, that year saw 9 offensive linemen, 7 wide receivers, 6 quarterbacks, and 1 tight end taken (but no running backs). That complete of an imbalance seemed like a fluke that would need correction, and while the correction happened, it was not total.
In 2025, teams were back to drafting 5 edge defenders and they now drafted 5 interior defensive linemen, and 1 linebacker, but still only 3 defensive backs. On offense, teams drafted 8 offensive linemen, 4 wide receivers, 2 quarterbacks, 2 tight ends, and 2 running backs. The supposedly poor receiver class simply returned to average, and the “weak” offensive line class still outpaced averages. Fewer quarterbacks were taken in a class where the options were unimpressive, but more non-receiver weapons made up the difference.
This could still just be a fluke. An extended blip. There might be a reset after the last of the prospects with eligibility affected by Covid have graduated. However, for now it really does seem like teams are preferring offensive players in the first round and taking defenders more sparingly.
2) Some people tried, but they couldn’t make “Fetch” happen.
Despite the focus on offense, or maybe because of it, teams refuse to be fooled on some things. Marvin Harrison, jr and Caleb Williams proved last year that a talented player could do things his own way and the draft would overlook it or embrace it. The NFL has also proven time and again that it will overlook very real concerns over a player’s character or other types of background concerns (though I won’t name any names here). What the NFL will seldom do, though, is overlook a disparity between talent and attitude.
For at least two years, various talking heads and pundits have tried to convince people that Shedeur Sanders was a first-round talent at quarterback–perhaps even worthy of consideration at the #1 overall pick. Some fans bought it. Some different pundits repeated it. However, when people who study quarterback play, specifically, looked at him they saw a player in a passer-friendly offense throwing to a generational talent and leaning on being highly developed in a subset of skills that would have limited potential in the NFL.
When it came time for the draft, teams made their decisions clear. They did not believe the pundits and instead believed the tape and their own evaluations. They didn’t care who put Sanders on what “Top Board” and instead decided that there were other players with different accomplishments who were more ready for the next step. Was it his attitude? Maybe. Was it Deion? Who knows. However, if he could truly spin it, it wouldn’t have mattered.
Fetch didn’t happen.
3) Travis Hunter is going to need to be a tie-breaker
Meanwhile, Sanders’ teammate proved that if there seems to be a true difference-maker available, one team of thirty-two will absolutely make it a priority to get that player. The Jacksonville Jaguars gave up a lot to get Hunter, and for now that move is getting them a lot of praise.
It’s a rare sort of move, and for good reason. Since the emergence of the modern rookie quarterback scale in 2011, there have only been four wide receivers drafted in the first round whose teams also gave up a future first-round pick to get them. Two of them are Julio Jones and Jaylen Waddle, whose contributions to their teams are well-documented. One is an absolute legend and the other is continually at the top of leaderboards. The other two are Sammy Watkins and Jahan Dotson. Neither stayed with their drafting team through the whole first contract, and both ended up being traded at a considerable loss. The Bills didn’t win a playoff game for the first six years after drafting Watkins, and the Commanders changed their entire leadership before winning after drafting Dotson. It’s also difficult not to find a parallel with Mark Ingram II, drafted to a perennial contender that gave up a future first-round pick to take him; whether or not it was a coincidence that year gave way to a run of losing seasons (4 of 5 in a row) during the Payton-Brees era.
The reality is that it is rare for any team to give up multiple first-rounders for a non-quarterback, and that these players have tremendous pressure placed upon them. Giving up a future first-rounder means that the new player is going to be out one impact player as a teammate, and so he will have to do the work of two stars. It’s a big ask. Travis Hunter is going to be the tie-breaker in terms of outcome on whether or not it makes sense even under the best of circumstances to give up an almost guaranteed extra future starter for a single receiver.
4) The trade market was fine
The move for Travis Hunter was the first trade announced, but it wasn’t the only one that took place. Many times over the course of the run-up to the draft, there were gurus and insiders leaking the idea that this year was going to be different, and so many teams were going to be desperate to trade down that teams would need to give discounts to allow other teams to move up. Despite this, of the seventeen picks in the zone where this would supposedly matter (across the first two days), ten trades were made at or just a bit above market price. Another four were made for within 5% of value, which is fairly close to typical on these maneuvers. There were really only three real discounts, and none of them were beyond single-pick level discounts of around 10-15%, all in the third round.
Where were the teams giving pennies on the dollar?
They didn’t exist. The truth of the matter is that the run-up to the draft is peak lying season, and so it makes perfect sense that teams would leak this sort of idea to see if they could get traction on generating discounts. However, as often happens, the opposite of what these people wanted occurred. Teams simply held to their boards and took players they valued instead of letting themselves be caught out cheap.
5) The SEC is still winning the draft
Conference realignment makes me write down that Oregon is in the Big Ten, the conference that has now won the national championship for the last two years, but one thing that hasn’t changed yet is that the SEC is still crushing it when it comes to getting young men drafted into the NFL. This year saw the conference get 79 players drafted from fifteen schools, outpacing the 71 players drafted from seventeen schools from the Big Ten. In the first two rounds of the draft, where starters and stars are typically found, there were 28 players from the SEC and only 19 from the Big Ten. In the top 20? Eight for the Southeastern Conference but five for the Big Ten.
The Big Ten will likely continue to close ground, and they might even overtake the SEC at some point soon. However, at least for the time being the SEC still has the inside track on placing players in the pros.
Concluding Notes
To me, the entire process seemed belabored. The lead-up to the draft seemed too long, the draft itself seemed unnecessarily drawn out, However, people continue to watch it, and it remains its own industry, so there is no reason for the NFL to change it. If I could make one scheduling change, it would probably be to condense the entire process to two days, with Rounds 1 and 2 on the first day and the rest of the draft to follow.
Put your notes in the comments below—if you could change one thing, what would it be?