Dalton Kincaid is a player we have spoken of this off-season as a fantasy target in both dynasty and best ball. Today, we will speak to his fantasy outlook in redraft leagues. Kincaid was no doubt a major disappointment last season, finishing as overall TE29. With that being said, the savvy fantasy players will use the recency bias to their advantage. The underlying data on Kincaid suggests he remains a tight end target for us with the potential to smash his ADP.
Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Outlook
2025 Fantasy Football Profile: Dalton Kincaid
2024 In Review
Last season, Dalton Kincaid finished as the overall PPR TE29 and was a major disappointment. Those of us in the fantasy community expected far better results, considering we drafted him as a top-12 tight end. Kincaid finished 2024 with just 44 receptions for 448 yards and two touchdowns. Those statistics represented a significant drop-off from his rookie season.
However, as we looked further into his receiving metrics from last season, there were some positive indicators. Kincaid’s 75 targets were top 15, and keep in mind he only played in 13 games. In 2024, he improved in multiple key categories. His target share, yards per route run, and targets per route all increased. Two more important key points: First, Kincaid’s expected weekly average was 10.0 PPR points per game, but he finished at 8.0. So you can see, he is due for positive regression. Some might say 10.0 PPR points per game is nothing, but that would have been Cade Otton, the 2024 TE11. Second, his catchable ball rate dropped from nearly 90% in 2023 to 69% this season.
2025 Projection
Dalton Kincaid is projected to for 136 fantasy points, 54 receptions, 601 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. Some other key points to consider when projecting Kincaid’s 2025 fantasy output. He ranked second on the Bills with 75 targets and garnered a 15.5% target share. Among qualified tight ends, his 10.2 yards per reception ranked among the top 12 at the position. Before his injury in week 10, Kincaid was posting a 65.5% snap rate.
Finally, perhaps the biggest asset that Kincaid has is that he is tied to an elite quarterback in Josh Allen. Since 2021, Allen has finished no lower than QB2 in fantasy. With Allen under center, Buffalo finished top-10 in total offense and second in points per game at 30.9.
Dalton Kincaid Fantasy Football ADP
Dalton Kincaid currently goes off best ball draft boards as the TE14 with an ADP of 134.3. That puts him in the 11th round of drafts and makes him a great tight end option for those hesitant to reach early at the position in their drafts. Based on his ADP, Kincaid gives us a low-risk, high-reward exposure to Josh Allen and the potent Bills offense.
Main Photo: Mark J. Rebilas – Imagn Images
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