In late May, we wrote about Christian McCaffrey being a solid value at his then-second-round ADP. Today, we want to further preview his fantasy outlook and potential rise up draft boards as we get deeper into the fantasy season. McCaffrey is perhaps the ideal recency bias candidate that savvy players can take advantage of in 2025. Reports out of 49ers OTAs indicate that he has no restrictions and has looked like himself.
Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Outlook
2025 Fantasy Football Profile: Christian McCaffrey
2024 In Review
Christian McCaffrey burned every fantasy manager that drafted him at the 1.1. I was included in that large group of fantasy managers. However, let us take the emotion out of it and dissect what we did see from last season, in the short time he was available for fantasy managers.
In the three full games he played last season, the fantasy numbers were there for him. McCaffrey averaged just under 19 touches, 93.7 total yards per game, and played at least 80% of the snaps. As we look further into the metrics, CMC produced a 22% missed tackle rate and 1.80 yards per route run. Those two data points were both top 10 among qualified running backs.
2025 Projection
Christian McCaffrey’s 2025 projections are the following:
- 260 fantasy points
- 206 rushing attempts
- 976 yards and seven rushing touchdowns
As we further project McCaffrey’s 2025 fantasy outlook, we have to also consider what his potential ceiling might be. In his last full season back in 2023, he produced 21 touchdowns, over 2,000 yards from scrimmage, and 24.5 fantasy points per game.
Deebo Samuel is no longer with the 49ers; his absence helps McCaffrey in multiple ways. Samuel was often used on designated runs in goal-line situations, and McCaffrey would yield some scoring opportunities to him. Second, McCaffrey is already a lethal option in the passing game, and Samuel’s absence could potentially increase his target share.
Next projected San Francisco WR1 Brandon Aiyuk is coming off a torn ACL he suffered in week seven last season. That injury usually takes approximately 11 months for recovery, so it is possible the 49ers lean on healthy McCaffrey early on this upcoming season.
Christian McCaffrey Fantasy Football ADP
Christian McCaffrey currently ranks as the overall RB6 in the second running back tier. His best ball ADP now sits in the first round at 9.5. As we stated in our McCaffrey article back in earlier this month:
In a Drafters mini best ball championship draft, I was able to start my roster with Ashton Jeanty at pick 11 and McCaffrey at pick 14. It would be a shock if his price tag stayed once reports start trickling in from OTAs and then training camp. His current ADP sits at 12.5 and will gradually rise into the first round as the 2025 fantasy season heats up.
The ADP rise has happened with the positive OTA reports. McCaffrey’s ADP has now risen into the first round, making him less of a value. All that being said, getting CMC in the latter half of the first round still works, but you must handcuff him with projected backup running back Isaac Guerendo!
Main Image: Tina MacIntyre-Yee/Democrat and Chronicle / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
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