Per ESPN’s Matt Bowen, multiple teams believe Chiefs right guard Trey Smith is the best player eligible for free agency in March (subscription required). That adds even more credence to the November reports suggesting Smith could become the league’s highest-paid interior blocker if he were to hit the open market.
In the estimation of SI.com’s Albert Breer, it will be difficult for Kansas City to prevent Smith from testing the FA waters. After all, fellow O-linemen Joe Thuney, Creed Humphrey, and Jawaan Taylor are already attached to high-end contracts, and sources tell Brad Biggs of the Chicago Tribune the Chiefs are unlikely to move on from Thuney. In addition, CB Trent McDuffie and edge defender George Karlaftis are extension-eligible for the first time, and the league’s current preeminent franchise is already projected to be close to the 2025 salary cap. Since Smith’s franchise tag number would check in at roughly $25MM for the upcoming season with a corresponding cap hit, that is likely not a feasible option (the transition tag would not be much cheaper).
Even though Breer says it would not be surprising to see the club part ways with Taylor, only a trade would lead to any 2025 cap savings (and given Taylor’s $19.5MM base pay in each of the next two seasons and his generally underwhelming performance as a member of the Chiefs, it is difficult to envision much of a trade market forming). That said, Smith is one of GM Brett Veach’s most notable draft triumphs, as the former sixth-rounder has become one of the game’s best all-around guards with a 75.1% run-block win rate in 2024 (h/t Bowen) and a 95.6% pass-block win rate since entering the league in 2021 (h/t ESPN’s Dan Graziano (subscription required)).
So, in light of KC’s struggles at the tackle spots, and since Thuney is under contract for just one more year, Veach may try to find a way to keep Smith on the roster. Indeed, Graziano believes the GM will do just that, and he predicts the Chiefs will authorize a five-year, $105MM accord ($65MM guaranteed) for the Tennessee product. The $21MM average annual value on such a deal would match Eagles LG Landon Dickerson’s at the top of the guard market, while the guaranteed money would represent a new high-water mark for guards.
If the Chiefs are unable to come to terms with Smith during their exclusive negotiating window, ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler (in the same Bowen piece linked above) names the Bears as a team to watch. Chicago GM Ryan Poles was on Veach’s KC staff when Smith was drafted, and one of Poles’ top priorities this offseason will be addressing the interior of his O-line.
Biggs adds that it would be unsurprising to see the Bears becoming a serious suitor for Smith should the Chiefs decline to pay up for him. And, as one GM told Biggs, “[Smith] just might get to free agency. The $20 million guard thing really scares some teams. Teams have seen how the top guard have been paid, and some of them, they don’t want to go there.”
Biggs does say a tag-and-trade involving Smith is a possible outcome. The Chiefs are plenty familiar with that process, having tagged CB L’Jarius Sneed last March before trading him to the Titans a few weeks later.