The Chicago Bears demonstrated in 2024 that they had significant coaching deficiencies that they addressed by hiring Ben Johnson as Head Coach and Dennis Allen as defensive coordinator. However, it wasn’t all coaching. Some glaring holes were clear on the roster, particularly on the offensive line. Thus, a question arose, how well did Ryan Poles address those deficiencies in free agency, and how well did the Chicago Bears stack up with the NFC North, going into the 2025 NFL Draft?
In order to answer that question, I have turned to Pro Football Focus’s individual offensive and defensive player ratings. PFF gives a rating for each player in the NFL based on their performance last season. So, we could just average the PFF rating for each player at each position to get an average PFF for the four teams in the NFC North and compare them. However, the problem with that approach is that certain positions on the football field are more important than others. It is objectively true that it is much better, and much more impactful, to have a 90 player at quarterback than it is to have a 90 player at punter.
So, I have applied weights to the 22 individual positions in football to use in our calculation of the average PFF scores for each team. While the individual value chosen is inherently arbitrary, the relative numbers reflect the objective values of the respective positions. For example, I weighted the QB position at a “9” while the CB1 position rated a “5” and the Strong-side linebacker in a 4-3 was given a “2” weight.
I did weigh the 3-4 and 4-3 defensive positions differently, based on their respective values within that defense. Obviously, there is nuance lost in such an approach (as we can plainly see with the difference in scheme between Dennis Allen’s 4-3 defense and Matt Eberflus’s 4-3). I further had to fill in some missing data – because some positions are slotted by the respective teams for a rookie contributor, or a player who did not receive significant snaps in 2024. The most glaring example is J.J. McCarthy for the Minnesota Vikings. I took a uniform approach to all such positions – I assigned a PFF score of 60 to that position.
Most rookies struggle to put up PFF scores above 60 in their rookie campaigns, so this seemed a ‘fair’ number to use in the few cases there was no veteran to use. However, it must be acknowledged as a potential drawback in the analysis. Many teams are planning on replacing veterans with rookies, and whatever those projections might be, they are not included in this analysis. And lastly, there is no projection in the PFF scores themselves – this is historical data from 2024. There is no accounting for regression – be it positive (player gets significantly better) or negative (player gets significantly worse). With all of the caveats out of the way, let’s look at the numbers.
Weighted PFF Scores for all 22 Positions for the NFC North
As we can see with the individual point totals for the 22 positions, the Detroit Lions had a serious talent advantage at premium positions on the offense and the defense, starting with the clear lead at the QB position – Jared Golf accounts for 709 points, followed by Jordan Love at 682, Caleb Williams at 609, and the projected score of J.J. McCarthy of 540. Both Detroit (Gibbs) and Green Bay (Jacobs) post substantially larger scores than the backfields in Minnesota or in Chicago. However, we can see that Chicago has made substantial progress on its offensive line. It has the highest score for their new center (Drew Dalman) and their new left guard (Joe Thuney). The scores at the other offensive lines are very competitive with those of the other teams in the NFC North.
On Defense, the Chicago Bears have a clear advantage at CB1 (Jaylon Johnson), but both Detroit and Green Bay match that advantage at the free safety position with Kerby Joseph and Xavier McKinney respectively. Comparing the defensive line and linebacker positions is complicated by the fact that two teams have 4-3 schemes (Bears, Lions) and two teams have 3-4 schemes (Packers, Vikings). However, Detroit scores a big point advantage with Aidan Hutchinson at DE relative to anyone on the Bears’ defensive line. Similarly, Minnesota’s Jonathan Greenard comes in with the second highest score on the defensive line.
Total Average Weighted PFF Scores per NFC North Team
Turning to the average scores for each team, we can see that there is a clear leader in the blocks, with the Lions a full 12 points higher than the next highest average score for any other team in the NFC North in overall team score. There other three NFC North teams have relative parity, with the Bears and the Packers having nearly identical scores (204) and the Vikings having a slightly higher score of 209. This clearly indicates that the other three NFC North teams had a lot of ground to make up going into the draft. The average scores for offense and defense provide some insight into the respective draft strategies for the teams of the North, and in particular the Chicago Bears. The Bears had the lowest average score on offense of all the four NFC teams – no surprise, then, to see the Bears use their first three picks on the offensive side of the ball.
So, what can we conclude about the Bears relative to their NFC rivals from this analysis? While the Bears had relative parity with most of the teams of the NFC North on the defensive side of the ball, they lagged behind all three of the NFC North teams on the offensive side of the ball – and not by insignificant amounts. In order to compete for the NFC North in 2025 and beyond, the Chicago Bears have a talent and performance deficit they have to eliminate. They took a step towards doing so in this year’s free agency period, and we will see if they have found talent that can begin to challenge their rivals in this year’s draft. But more than that, improved performance at the key positions, particularly Caleb Williams at the quarterback position, will begin to put the Chicago Bears in the conversation of NFC North contenders.