The NFL’s 2025 schedule will be released on Wednesday, May 14, but we’ve known the matchups for each team since the 2024 season ended. That means we’ve known the mathematical strength of schedule for the Chicago Bears just as long. Based on the combined 2024 record of Chicago’s opponents, they face a slate of games with a .571 winning percentage, which is the second toughest behind only the .574 of the New York Giants.
Chicago plays 11 games against teams that had a .500 record or better last year, which is tied for the most in the league, and they face ten 2024 playoff teams, also tied for the second most.
On paper, it’s a tough schedule, but there are other ways to determine strength.
Warren Sharp, of SharpFootballAnalysis.com, uses the projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers for his strength of schedule because “basing strength of schedule on last year’s records is lazy, inaccurate, and inefficient,” he says.
“Projected win totals incorporate current information about team strength, including offseason acquisitions, injuries, and coaching changes,” he continues.
Chicago’s Vegas win total is 8.5, and Sharp’s model has their strength of schedule ranked 26th. His model also has the Giants as the toughest schedule, which doesn’t bode well for them.
The Pro Football & Sports Network also has a strength of schedule model, and they have Chicago tied with the Atlanta Falcons at 21st, and here’s what they had to say.
An NFC North ranking this low in the strength of schedule metric speaks to the reasonably light nature of their non-divisional games (Saints, Giants, and Browns largely responsible for this favorable projection). Of course, this team will only be as successful as the development of Caleb Williams in his second season.
The Bears are just 3-9 in divisional games over the past two seasons – to take the next step forward, they will have to find a way to steal multiple North games, and that’s a tall task.
Here are the games the Bears will play in 2025.
HOME
Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, and the New Orleans Saints
AWAY
Packers, Lions, Vikings, Washington Commanders, Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals, Las Vegas Raiders, and the San Francisco 49ers
Stay tuned for our schedule rumor tracker that we’ll launch next week as the games start to leak.