BALTIMORE, Md. (WGN) — The Chicago Bears’ victory against the New Orleans Saints two weeks ago felt like a throwback Bears win. The defense came through, the running game was dominant, and the quarterback play was iffy, but successful enough to come away with a comfortable dub.
Meanwhile, Chicago’s loss Sunday against the Baltimore Ravens felt more like a throwback Bears defeat. A winnable matchup on paper, but Chicago came out flat on both sides of the ball, and featured a litany of recurring issues that have players sounding like broken clocks during postgame interviews.
Here are three takeaways, good and bad, to help make sense of what to possibly expect from the Bears when they travel to play the Cincinnati Bengals next weekend, and beyond.
1. Rome Odunze is WR1 and won all day against Nate Wiggins, until he didn’t
There was a lot wrong with the Chicago’s offense on Sunday. Rome Odunze was not a part of those problems.
Yes, Nate Wiggins was matched up on Odunze when he jumped a route and picked off Caleb Williams, but Odunze also caught 7 receptions for 114 yards on 10 targets against the Ravens defense, with most of his production coming against Wiggins.
According to Next Gen Stats, Odunze hauled in 5 receptions for 78 yards on 6 targets across 14 total matchups when matched up directly with Wiggins. While Wiggins seemingly had the last laugh after he recorded that fourth-quarter interception, he also allowed 8 total receptions for a career-high 99 yards on 11 targets against the Bears.
Aside from one play, Odunze consistently won his matchup against the Ravens’ top cornerback and continued to cement his status as Williams’ top target, despite the loss. After Sunday, he’s still on pace for 75 catches, 1,149 yards receiving and 12 touchdown catches for Chicago.
2. The Bears can’t rely on a turnover-happy defense to win each week
If there was a clear takeaway from the Bears’ defense on Sunday (no pun intended), it was that they can’t rely on creating three-plus turnovers every week to win, especially when the rest of their defense does very little to contribute to winning football.
Before I roll out the statistical red carpet, injuries do need to be acknowledged. They are by no means an excuse, but they are an unfortunate part of football that has impacted Chicago’s performance on the defensive side of the ball.
The secondary was without its top three corners—Jaylon Johnson, Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon. As the game progressed, the Bears’ defensive line depth dwindled more and more. Backup defensive ends Dominique Robinson and Shemar Turner (it was just revealed that Turner tore his ACL and is out for the season) both left the game with injuries, which forced starters into more reps on the field, and others further down the depth chart into unexpected action.
It wasn’t exactly an ideal situation for defensive coordinator Dennis Allen, who prefers to deploy his defensive linemen in waves, simultaneously alongside exotic looks and unique looks from his best DB’s.
But this is the NFL, where the mantra in these situations is “next man up,” and the next man up in Chicago has struggled to consistently stop opposing offenses.
Chicago leads the NFL in turnovers forced (16: 11 interceptions, 5 fumbles recovered) and turnover differential (+10), but are also third-to-last in yards allowed per play (6.2), trailing only the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys by hundredths of a percentage point.
According to Next Gen Stats, only one team in the Super Bowl Era has led the NFL in takeaways and been last in yards per play allowed in the same season: the 1995 Arizona Cardinals, who went 4-12.
That doesn’t bode well for a defense that also ranks 30th in yards allowed per rush attempt (5.3) and completion percentage allowed (72.2%), and is below league average in numerous other categories like opponent rush yards per game (27th – 143.3), opponent total yards per game (25th – 350.7), sacks per game (T-21st – 2.0), opponent average team passer rating (21st – 98.6) and sack percentage (19th – 6.73%).
Where does improvement come from on the defensive side of the ball in this current iteration of the Bears? The most likely answer is in the form of reinforcements off the injured list. It could also come from a move ahead of the trade deadline. After all, Ryan Poles has never shied away from pulling the trigger on a headline deal.
3. D’Andre Swift remains an outside-the-tackles running back, but where will success running in between the tackles come from?
Earlier this year, I predicted that D’Andre Swift would have the best season of his career back under Ben Johnson in Chicago.
If we’re basing the likelihood of that coming to fruition on Swift’s ability to tote the rock on runs to the outside, so far so good.
But the problem is, he’s as electric running outside as he is inefficient going north-south, and that could make him predictable, the larger his rushing attempts sample size becomes.
According to Next Gen Stats, Swift had directed 66.3% of his carries outside the tackles this season, the 4th-highest rate among all running backs with at least 50 carries on the year heading into Week 8.
Swift had gained 340 yards on outside carries (3rd-most in the NFL) while averaging 5.8 yards per carry (6th-most, min. 25 carries) and produced a league-high 15 explosive runs of 10-plus yards on those outside runs. In stark contrast, Swift averaged just 2.6 yards per carry on runs between the tackles (3rd-fewest, min. 25 inside carries) without recording a single explosive run.
Fast forward to Sunday, Swift carried the ball 11 times for 45 yards (4.1 YPA) and a touchdown against Baltimore. According to Pro Football Focus, six of those 11 attempts came outside of the tackles, and Swift only gained 15 yards on those runs (2.5 YPA). Did the Ravens look at the data, see that and prepare accordingly? I can’t say for certain, but if they did, this could be a precursor of what’s to come if Swift can’t find success running inside the tackles in higher volumes.
He had five carries for 30 yards on runs in between the left and right guards (6.0 YPA). Three of those carries accounted for 23 yards (7.7 YPA) and came from running behind the left or right guard, which has been a byproduct of Johnson’s success calling inside and outside zone run plays since the bye week. His two other carries went middle-right in between Drew Dalman and Jonah Jackson for a total of 7 yards (3.5 YPA).
The Bears were down double digits late, which led to more passing situations and less opportunities for Swift on the ground, but he will need to find much more success inside to go with his outside production if Chicago’s run game is going to continue being a contributing factor to winning football games moving forward.