Week 5 of the NFL season begins on Thursday Night Football when the Chicago Bears (0-4) take on the Washington Commanders (2-2). Both teams are coming off heartbreaking three-point losses. Below, we examine the odds for Bears vs. Commanders and reveal our predictions, picks, and best prop bets for Thursday Night Football.
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Bears vs. Commanders: NFL Thursday Night Football Odds
For TNF:
— The #Bears ruled out WR Chase Claypool, S Eddie Jackson, and CB Jaylon Johnson.
— The #Commanders say WR Curtis Samuel and WR Jahan Dotson will play. Same with CB Christian Holmes.— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 4, 2023
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Which team is favored on Thursday night? The oddsmakers at BetOnline have the Commanders as a 6-point favorite.
The Bears will be missing two of their top players in the secondary as Jaylon Johnson (hamstring) and free safety Eddie Jackson (foot) have been ruled out. Another member of the Bears’ secondary, strong safety Jaquan Brisker (hamstring), is listed as questionable.
For Washington, wide receivers Curtis Samuel (quad) and Jahan Dotson (ankle) will play against the Bears.
View the odds for the game below.
| Bet | Chicago Bears | Washington Commanders | Play |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +215 | -255 |  |
| Point Spread | +6 (-115) | -6 (-105) | |
| Total Points | Over 44.5 (-105) | Under 44.5 (-115) | |
*Odds courtesy of BetOnline. Odds are correct at the time of publication but are subject to change.
Bears vs. Commanders: NFL Thursday Night Football Predictions And Picks
Commanders -6 (-105)
Commanders quarterback Sam Howell showed a lot of poise against the Eagles. Down seven points with under two minutes left, Howell drove the Commanders down the field in 10 plays, capped off with a touchdown pass to Dotson as time expired.
The Commanders elected to kick the extra point to tie the game and not go for the two-point conversion to win. The Commanders would lose on a game-winning field goal by Eagles kicker Jake Elliot.
Washington’s offense is slightly below average – 20th in yards per game (307.8) and 17th in points per game (22.3). However, having their No. 2 and No. 3 receivers (Samuel and Dohtson) cleared to play alongside Terry McClaurin is crucial for a team looking to stay above .500.
It’s an overused expression, but Chicago is “The Bad News Bears.” When you think the Bears will win after jumping out in front of the Broncos 28-7, they rip your hearts out and surrender 24 unanswered points to lose.
The Bears defense has the WORST sack percentage (1.57%) ranks in the bottom 3 in the NFL in 3rd down and red-zone defense and is 31st in total points allowed at 34.3 per game.
Who’s to blame for this defensive mess? #DaBears #Bears #ChicagoBears
— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) October 4, 2023
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Fields played his best game of the season with 335 yards passing and four touchdowns but threw a costly interception in the game’s final moments.
The Bears have lost 14 straight games, allowing 25 or more points in each loss. Chicago is missing two members of their secondary, with a third one listed as questionable.
On a short week, it’s hard to trust the Bears covering on the road, especially after their collapse in Week 4.
Bears vs. Commanders: NFL Thursday Night Football Best Prop Bets
Sam Howell Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Not to beat a dead horse, but the Bears are playing with a depleted secondary. Chicago is the fourth-worst defense against the pass, allowing 267.8 yards per game. Four quarterbacks have faced the Bears: Green Bay’s Jordan Love, Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield, Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes, and Denver’s Russell Wilson. All four quarterbacks threw at least 245 yards.
Howell has surpassed 243.5 passing yards in two of four games, including 290 in Week 4. With the Bears playing better against the run (ranked 18th), look for the Commanders to take advantage of a weak Bears’ secondary at home.
Justin Field Over 191.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Coming off a 335-yard performance, the oddsmakers have Fields returning to reality in Week 5, with his passing yards total set at 191.5. Fields has surpassed 211 passing yards or more in three of four games this season.
The Commanders are ranked 20th against the pass (230.0 yards per game). What’s on Washington’s side is their pass rush, which has 13.0 sacks, three behind the league leaders at 16.0. Even if the Commanders’ defensive front gets to Fields, expect the Bears to throw the ball often to keep pace with Washington, especially if the Bears’ defensive woes continue, meaning the Commanders will be scoring north of 25 points.
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