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This Rising Thunder Guard is Due for a Breakout, But…

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It is no secret that the Oklahoma City Thunder is one of the most talented teams in the league. Fresh off a championship, the organization is heading towards a potential dynasty trajectory. With a strong, well-balanced core and a solid supporting cast, it is the recipe for success. We all know that a Cason Wallace breakout season hasn’t quite happened yet, but it’s definitely closing in.

May 22, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (5) dribbles against Oklahoma City Thunder guard Cason Wallace (22) in the second quarter during game two of the western conference finals for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Wallace served as one of the many key players in OKC coach Mark Daigneault’s rotation. He has been a superb spark off the bench, fit in well with the starters, and has been a defensive stalwart in his own right. But with his rising production and hints of strong playmaking, he is starting to be another rising Thunder guard to look out for.

This Rising Thunder Guard is Due for a Breakout, But…

Is Wallace a worthy player for OKC to give more minutes? Well, Oklahoma City has actually broken off the stigma of having a consistent sixth man over the years. That role has shifted from Aaron Wiggins, Alex Caruso, Jaylin Williams, and even Isaiah Hartenstein at some point in the 2025 NBA Finals.

But is a Cason Wallace breakout campaign possible?

Wallace Was Superb in 2024-25

Simply put, Wallace was a huge player for the Thunder’s championship campaign. Although it may go unnoticed, the Kentucky guard has proven himself to be better last season. For starters, he averaged 8.4 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. He also logged career-highs in games started (43), minutes per game (27.6), and free throw percentage (81.1%).

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His improved role as a defender was stunning. He’s often tagged with Caruso to wreak havoc on defense as the “Cookies and Cream” duo. Then, there’s his more confident and consistent three-point shooting, which has proven to be an x-factor in his 3-and-D wing immersion for the Thunder. On top of that, the OKC guard has also become more superb at swiping the ball from the opposition.

In fact, we may have seen a Cason Wallace breakout last year, at least on the defensive side. He finished with a total of 120 steals last season, good for the sixth-most in the league. If you are not impressed, he was third in total steals by a Thunder player in the 2025 NBA Playoffs with 32, tied with Jalen Williams.

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If you want to account his winning impact on the team, then this should be the nail to the coffin. Wallace boasts the highest winning percentage by an NBA player with at least 150+ games played. The Thunder guard stands with a 74.7% win rate, better than Magic Johnson, Larry Bird, and Bill Russell. That’s also way ahead of LeBron James, Stephen Curry, or Kevin Durant, who are not even in the top 20.

So, What’s Holding Cason Wallace from a Breakout?

Well, there are many factors that come into play that is keeping us from seeing a Cason Wallace breakout campaign.

One such thing is that the Thunder is loaded with a lot of guards. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, and J-Dub are already at the top of the hierarchy at this point. Then there’s Ajay Mitchell, Isaiah Joe, Wiggins, and Caruso off the bench. See how hard Wallace needs to prove himself further to receive more minutes?

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Not to mention that there’s also the up and coming rookie Nikola Topić. Brooks Barnhizer might also take some minutes from time to time as a two-way player. A lot of this affects the Thunder guard’s standing in the rotation. Luckily, Wallace is getting nearly 30 minutes of play time, so that’s a good point of consideration.

Perhaps further development, especially in his shooting – should upsize his value as a 3-and-D winger for OKC, which is something that the team needs at this point. He will, however, have to battle for that role as there are definitely a lot of those archetypes in the Thunder squad.

Unless Wallace Takes His Game Up a Notch, a Breakout Run is in Doubt

We have seen all those massive steals from Wallace both in the regular season and in the playoffs. The next play after that often ended in impressive finishes, even some wrapped up with a poster slam (especially that one over Nikola Jokić in the West Semis). Cason Wallace definitely has the potential to be a breakout player for OKC, but he needs to show that he can roll better with the championship squad.

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After all, with Oklahoma City poised to aim for a repeat at the championship, the pressure is felt amongst its players, Wallace included. This should definitely energize him to have a bigger role with the Thunder, and for him to be the next breakout player from the team.

Photo credit: © NATHAN J. FISH/THE OKLAHOMAN / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

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