Florida battled through the toughest Final Four in recent memory to win the national championship. Defeating Houston in the title game, the Gators knew they would lose key pieces. Their top three scorers, Walter Clayton Jr., Alijah Martin, and Will Richard, all find themselves in NBA organizations. Denzel Aberdeen and Sam Alexis transferred to powerhouses Kentucky and Indiana. However, Florida picked up three key transfers itself to replace their lost guard depth: Xavian Lee (Princeton), Boogie Fland (Arkansas), and AJ Brown (Ohio). Time will tell whether they perform up to their expectations, but Florida’s 2025 non-conference schedule will require them to gel immediately to navigate unscathed, as they did a year ago.
Florida’s 2025 Non-Conference Slate Requires Immediate Results
Roster Turnaround
Anytime a team loses its top three scorers, reflection is necessary. Can the players brought in to replace them live up to the expectations? However, the Gators’ frontcourt remains largely untouched. Alex Condon could have entered the NBA draft, but opted to remain in school. Thomas Haugh was one of the most valuable players in their championship run and returns for his junior season. Even Rueben Chinyelu returns as a key frontcourt piece for his junior season. The guard room saw plenty of changes, but the forward will have to step up with the loss of such important players.
It’s unlikely that any of the transfers will live up to Clayton Jr.’s performance, especially in the clutch. However, each of the guards seeks to bring their own version of the players they lost. Fland played in the SEC, albeit for less time than others, due to injury. He averaged 13.5 points and 5.1 assists per game, while only averaging 1.4 turnovers. His ability to protect the ball will be crucial against major programs on their schedule.
Lee and Brown are harder to read because they lack power conference experience. Lee averaged 16.9 points, 5.5 assists, and 6.1 rebounds per game, while Brown averaged 13.2 points on 38.8% from three and an impressive 56.6% on two-point attempts. However, the SEC is neither the MAC nor the Ivy League. The trio also averaged 4.0 steals per game combined; last year’s guards averaged 4.4 steals per game for the Gators. They will all need to bring their best in the 2025 non-conference slate for Florida if they hope to succeed.
Tough Matchups
A virtual road game against Arizona (the game is in Las Vegas) wouldn’t be the worst if it were the most difficult game on the docket. However, their opening night test will only begin a series of tests to pass for the Gators. The Gators play in-state tests against Florida State and Miami on November 11th and 16th, respectively. Leonard Hamilton and Jim Larranaga both stepped down, leaving new coaches to rebuild the struggling programs. Florida State will likely need another year for serious contention in the ACC, but crazier things have happened in rivalry games. Miami, on the other hand, hired an elite coaching candidate in Jai Lucas, who could spark the Hurricanes.
The Gators then move on to the Rady Children’s Invitational, where they open against TCU. Whether they win or lose, they will play either Providence or Wisconsin next. Wisconsin seems like the favorite to win that game and have a strong roster again. They should find themselves as a seed-favorite in the NCAA Tournament. That will be five power-conference opponents in November for the Gators.
The end of Florida’s 2025 non-conference schedule should end with four wins against mid-major opponents. However, the month starts with their two hardest matchups of the season. They travel to Durham to play Duke in what many thought would be the national championship game before a Duke collapse. Beating Duke is hard enough, but few teams walk into Cameron Indoor and leave with a win. A week later, they play another neutral-site game only a couple of hours from their opponent, Connecticut. The winner of the previous two national championships will likely bring everything to the table in this Round of 32 rematch. Florida will need to be elite to win one of those two games.
Projecting Florida’s 2025 Non-Conference Record
So much of this projection depends on how well this new roster works together. The statistics are there, but unproven transfers and new personalities will test Todd Golden’s coaching ability. The game against Arizona is the toughest to project, since they will be playing their first game together. Overall, Florida will likely walk out of the non-conference unscathed in the games where they will be clear favorites. Only Arizona, Duke, and UConn will have a true opportunity to beat them. While this could change, Florida will likely lose at least one of those games.
While matchups are hard to predict this far in advance, projecting Florida to finish its 2025 non-conference slate with a record of 11-2 seems fair. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them finish 12-1, either. A 13-0 or 10-3 finish seems far less likely.
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