The NCAA is full of teams that fail to live up to expectations. Missing the NCAA Tournament is a sign of a program that has failed to reach expectations, especially in the power conferences. Those teams rebuild their roster or fire their head coach. So, after disappointing 2025 seasons, which teams are likely to rebound to the NCAA Tournament in 2026? What teams will rise and compete for the national championship? Three teams stand out above the rest.
3 Teams Most Likely to Rebound to NCAA Tournament in 2026
Indiana (2024-25 Record: 19-13)
Some would say Indiana was close to making the tournament in 2025. However, after Mike Woodson announced his decision to step down, the program will likely take a step forward under new head coach Darian DeVries. DeVries has won everywhere he has gone, including West Virginia, the notable snub in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. With his prestige (leading Drake to three tournaments) and Indiana’s massive support for basketball, he is set up for success.
He remade the roster with 10 transfers. Many of those moves provided the roster with depth, but key figures like his son Tucker DeVries and Sam Houston State transfer Lamar Wilkerson will bring the star power to the Big Ten. His roster epitomizes modern college basketball after bringing in only one high school recruit. However, based on his success at West Virginia and the roster improvements, don’t be surprised to see Indiana rebound to the 2026 NCAA Tournament.
NC State (12-19)
Will Wade wins wherever he goes. He showed that even in the SEC, before a brief coaching hiatus due to a scandal. In a weaker ACC, he built a brand new roster that looks primed to compete for an NCAA Tournament bid. Wade’s style of toughness and grit translates to any conference. He will also have immense talent, picking up arguably the top transfer in the country in Darrion Williams. Besides Williams, he picked up key players on three other NCAA Tournament teams. He also added two other top 101 recruits from high school to round out a complete roster. His combination of youth, experience, and star power will lead to ACC contention and likely an NCAA Tournament bid.
Iowa (17-16)
Ben McCollum managed to rebuild Drake in one season like it was a power conference program. Drake lost Darian DeVries to West Virginia, but managed to dominate the Missouri Valley. They finished 31-4 and won their way into the Round of 32, beating Missouri in the first round. They played with the slowest pace in the country, but managed to win against an SEC opponent using Bennett Stirtz. Stirtz was a star player who earned himself a promotion with his coach to the Hawkeyes.
Another key sign of teams that are capable of a rebound in 2026 is roster consistency. While Iowa lost most of its roster, McCollum brought over his best players from Drake. He also added four-star transfers from Kansas State and Miami to complement the moves. Stirtz will star next to the Horizon League player of the year, Alvaro Folgueiras. Folgueiras is a tall forward who can control the tempo at point guard. While he and Stirtz like to play similar roles in the offense, McCollum will not have problems bringing them together to fit his scheme.
Teams With One Too Many Questions
Several teams just missed the cut for making this list for a variety of different reasons. Miami’s new coach, Jai Lucas, has never coached a team on his own before. While he brought in good talent, the squad lacks the star power that many of the power conference programs have that make the NCAA Tournament. The combination puts just enough doubt on their tournament hopes for 2026.
Virginia has a proven coach in Ryan Odom and a historically good program, especially in recent years. However, even worse than Miami, they lacked any major additions in recruiting. Their roster is full of good role players that any contending team would love to have. However, can one or two players rise into stardom for the Cavaliers? Only time will tell.
USC has a good and proven head coach in Eric Musselman. They picked up elite star power in both the portal and high school. However, injuries have already turned the tide for USC, and they lack the depth that is necessary to compete with injuries. If they can remain healthy, they can make the NCAA Tournament. However, one more injury to a guard would put them dreadfully thin in the backcourt. The team will need its stars to stay healthy and carry them through to March if they hope to rebound in 2026.
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