The Oklahoma City Thunder are an all-time great team. Their point differential of +12.9 points per game broke a 53-year-old record. Their 68 wins put them in a tie for fourth in NBA history. They are led by the likely league MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. A combination of homegrown talent and savvy additions litter the roster, from All-Star Jalen Williams to bench leader Alex Caruso. They can all defend, they can all shoot, and they have all bought into coach Mark Daigneault’s system. So, what hope does Minnesota have to take them down? Apart from the two intangibles, rest and experience, which both lean in Minnesota’s favor, these are three key factors that, if the Timberwolves can win, they have a great chance to make the franchise’s first NBA Finals.
3 Factors That Can Help the Timberwolves Make the NBA Finals
Corner Threes
Oklahoma City’s defense is predicated on protecting the paint and swarming with active hands on the perimeter. However, there is a weakness that, if exploited, could help Minnesota’s offense become more efficient. The corner three-pointer is the shortest spot along the arc, and the Thunder willingly let teams find space out there. While Oklahoma City leads the NBA in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area, holding teams to just 62.2% close to the rim, they allow a league-high 11.5 corner three-point attempts per game. Minnesota shoots nearly 40% from the corners, and if they are consistently able to find open looks out there, look for the offense to soar. With so much attention surely on Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle, the onus will be on Mike Conley, Donte DiVincenzo, Naz Reid, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Jaden McDaniels to hit the shots as they come.
Transition Turnovers
The Thunder love to run. They are a young team, with athletes at every position. Forcing turnovers, which lead to transition opportunities, is a major part of their approach. What sets them apart from other teams who play similarly is their ability to finish in transition. Oklahoma City led the NBA by a significant margin in transition turnover frequency, giving up the ball just 8.5% of the time. The gap between the Thunder and the second-ranked Celtics is the same as the gap between the third and 11th-ranked teams.
Minnesota comes in a measly 19th spot, turning the ball over on 12.2% of their transition opportunities. However, in the playoffs, the differential is even worse. The Thunder have improved to just a 6% transition turnover rate, while Minnesota’s number has spiked to 15%. If Minnesota can make better decisions in transition and become more efficient, it will be an unexpected spark that could lift them to victory. Of the three factors, this will likely be the hardest for the Timberwolves to have an advantage.
Pull-Up Three Pointers
With two of these three key factors related to the three-point line, it’s clear that outside shooting efficiency will be a focal point for both the Timberwolves and Thunder. However, one area in which Minnesota was better was pull-up three-pointers. Led by Edwards, who was tops in the league in pull-up threes made and attempted this season (230 and 597, respectively), Minnesota will need these shots to fall if they hope to break down Oklahoma City’s vaunted defense. The Wolves can get lazy with their passing, and the Thunder will take advantage of any opportunity to get deflections or steals. Minnesota needs to hit pull-up threes before any help defenders can arrive, and there’s no one better than Edwards.
Ant-Man promised to bring his team back to the Western Conference Finals, and he kept that promise. Minnesota is well-rested, with six days off since their last game. They have the experience of last year’s playoff defeat. They split the season series 2-2, so there’s confidence that they can beat the Thunder. It’s going to be a dogfight, but the Wolves have a path to victory in their sights.
Featured image: © Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
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